Let's say we're playing 10nl w/o rake and we open raise to $0.30 from the button. The SB calls and the BB folds. So the flop comes, the flop pot is $0.70, and the SB checks to us. At this point, we could consider making a bet of $0.50.
bet/(bet+pot) = 0.5/(0.5+0.7) = 0.5/1.2 = 0.4167
If our opponent folds more than 41.67% of the time, then our bluff is +EV. This assumes that we have absolutely no equity if we are called, we always check/fold if we see a turn, and we always fold if our flop bet is raised.
Generally speaking, your opponent's folding percentage will change based on how much you bet. It's clear to see that betting $0.10 in the above scenario will get a much different response than betting $4. How a player's folding percentage changes when facing different bet sizes is called the elasticity of their range. For example, there are situations where a bet of 2/3 the pot will get a similar fold frequency as a bet that is pot-sized, especially if the opponent's range is weak on a given board.
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
