[2NL] 6m AA OOP rivers nut flush on baby flush board

[seven-deuce]

Ohrite, i see, so say we arrived at the river with the very bottom of our range and with the same board we would still jam because we're still putting him to a tough decision with his middle strength hands say like the 9 T K and we'd expect to be getting enough folds to be profitable.

We can't just decide we can't bluff here because he could possibly be holding the nuts, because we could be sacrificing a +EV bluff shove, for a 0 EV check/fold?

And because say we analysed this off the table when we knew we would have to have bet/(bet+pot) % of our value hands as bluffs and when we are shoving on the river we would want to have a balance range? Is having a balanced shoving range HU at the river going to be more +EV than only shipping for value?

The thing i can't fathom with all this is say we again arrive at the river with the bottom of our range vs an opponent who we know is capable of folding second best hands so we want to have a balanced shoving range on the river to gain more EV from him, do we just auto jam here? As this is one of hands we would be adding as part of our %of value bets as bluffs so do we just bluff jam with this hand regardless?

[Pelion]

We can't just decide we can't bluff here because he could possibly be holding the nuts, because we could be sacrificing a +EV bluff shove, for a 0 EV check/fold?

Right, you can't say "we can't bluff here because he might hold the nuts". Every single time you bluff there is some chance villain holds the nuts.

But you might say "we can't bluff here because the nuts makes up a huge portion of his range", which is pretty likely if we don't hold the A.

The question is about the hands that he can fold, not the hands he can't, and the chances of him holding the nuts are taken into consideration with that.

The question is about the ratio of hands he can fold to hands he can't fold. When we don't hold the A, villains calling range is much wider because you can add a bunch of A hands. Much wider calling range = much less reason to bluff.