Check-raised w/ OESD and hit on a scary river ($4NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

I don't know if I played it well postflop and am going to go through it street-by-street. Villain is a reg (15/10/2.2) who chk-raises flop 8% and whose aggression tends to fade a lot from flop to river. No other reads.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
CO: $3.31
BTN: $4.51
SB: $7.60
BB: $4.47
UTG: $1.60
Hero (UTG+1): $4.75
MP: $3.98

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is UTG+1 with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, 1 fold, CO calls $0.16, 2 folds, BB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.50) T J 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50, CO folds

I might not normally call here, especially heads up, but it's not a huge raise and the pot odds are about 3.5:1. Plus if the CO calls the check-raise, the implied odds might make this well worth it. I also know BB is likely not to follow through on the turn or river w/o a monster. Is this thinking wrong? Am I making a loose call?

I'm thinking the villain's range here is { JJ-88, AJs-A9s, KTs+, QJs, AJo-A9o, KTo+, QJo }, in which case my equity is 35.1%.

Turn: ($2.25) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

I'm not too surprised that he checks, so do I check behind w/ the intention of folding the river if I don't hit and betting if checked to me? Or do I bet here thinking he'll fold 2 pair w/ this scary board or will fold a flush draw to a big enough bet?

River: ($2.25) K (2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero ....?

I hit my straight but this isn't a great river. Did the villain hit his flush? Or did he slowplay his trip 9's or a full house on the turn maybe? Is a call just spewy here?

[Cobra_1878]

I think this looks like a typical bluff line, c/r flop, check turn, try take it again on a scary river card.

As played just call the river.

[kiwiMark]

My thoughts on the hand (no expert, so take with a grain of salt etc.)

Flop: With the action as it is, I don't think I ever find a fold.
Some of the things I'm thinking: if a K and no diamonds comes, you're gonna get the stack of anyone with a Queen and no Ace.
The flush draw of course means your straight draw isn't worth as much, but also adds to the draws that could be raising here, and since he raises such a small amount it seems less likely he's protecting a set or so against draws (but could have a made straight already he's trying to tricksy lure you in or whatever) and more likely that he's semi-bluffing with a draw with himself (maybe assuming too much about villain here), in which case you may be ahead on blank turns and rivers without even hitting your own draw.
If CO folds after you you gain sweet sweet position, and if he calls after you then as you say there are more mannies in the pot, making a call more appealing.
With all that said, I think you need to be betting this flop way bigger - CO can almost already call with diamonds on pot odds alone (and certainly can justify it with implied odds) and if CO calls then BB is only calling 25c and the pot's $1, so again you're not getting him to make a mistake by calling.

Turn:
When he checks here I assume he's either just made his boat (but this would mean he had a set or two pair on the flop which as I mentioned above seems slightly less likely to me due to his tiny raise), he's hoping if he checks you'll try to stab into his made straight (maybe a bit less likely since the turn paired the board but who knows), ooor he's on a draw and is hoping his flop raise will buy him a free pass on the turn to see the river card and maybe hit.
I guesstimate on the side of there being more draw options in his range than the alternative, and would bet on this turn.

River: I wouldn't know what he's made it to the river with that he could be bluffing here, so I guess I think the only thing he's betting that you beat is a King high straight (ie. he has a Q but no A). This is a job for maths/stove, but on the table I guess I hate myself and call, reasoning there are quite a few high diamonds on the board which takes a lot of flushes out of the range he calls PF with and I'm calling $1.5 for a $3.75 pot so I don't need to be ahead super often to make it profitable.

Jesus that was long and rambly.

[daviddem]

I can't put him on anything else than a nut flush. Don't think he would slow play a boat ott as he can't expect you to bet when he checks.

Paired board and a villain whose line screams he has a flush. Your straight is not worth much here. I think river is a fold.

It's ok to call the flop but only because it's cheap.

Check turn behind is fine.

[Malbrack]

I'm trying to think through the thought process of the villain's line. On the turn, wouldn't he want to bet 1- and 2-pair hands to charge your draws? But he might be trying to check-raise with a full house? This could also be a straight- or flush-draw semi-bluff on the flop, trying for a free card on the turn, and then getting there on the river.

Against { JJ-99, AdQd, AdTd, KQs, KdTd, QJs, KQo } you have 55% equity. I guess the question is whether you think he has KQ and QJs in his range or not.

[rowhousepd]

Thanks for the thoughtful response, guys. This is awesome.

Flop: With the action as it is, I don't think I ever find a fold.
Some of the things I'm thinking: if a K and no diamonds comes, you're gonna get the stack of anyone with a Queen and no Ace.

Yeah, my thinking too, but w/ only 3 non-diamond straight outs it's probably not enough to warrant a call. But do you think my other non-diamond overcards are legitimate outs for top pair considering this board?

With all that said, I think you need to be betting this flop way bigger - CO can almost already call with diamonds on pot odds alone (and certainly can justify it with implied odds) and if CO calls then BB is only calling 25c and the pot's $1, so again you're not getting him to make a mistake by calling.

I meant to ask about this bet sizing on my end. I was semi-bluffing here and trying to build the pot w/ the expectation of just folding a diamond turn and any aggression. Is a 1/2 pot bet too small for a semi-bluff in situation like this do you think?

Turn:
When he checks here I assume he's either just made his boat (but this would mean he had a set or two pair on the flop which as I mentioned above seems slightly less likely to me due to his tiny raise), he's hoping if he checks you'll try to stab into his made straight (maybe a bit less likely since the turn paired the board but who knows), ooor he's on a draw and is hoping his flop raise will buy him a free pass on the turn to see the river card and maybe hit.
I guesstimate on the side of there being more draw options in his range than the alternative, and would bet on this turn.

My thinking is as well, which is why I didn't want to stab. I'd either be just giving away $ bc I'm crushed, or I can take the free cards and wait to see if I hit my draw on the river. Thus my check.

To pick up one daviddem's point, I probably dont think he checks a boat thinking I'm going to stab.

I can't put him on anything else than a nut flush. Don't think he would slow play a boat ott as he can't expect you to bet when he checks.

+1

I'm trying to think through the thought process of the villain's line. On the turn, wouldn't he want to bet 1- and 2-pair hands to charge your draws? But he might be trying to check-raise with a full house?

I don't know if he can expect to get much from 2 chk-raises in a row, so if he has a hand now, or had one on the flop, I think he's betting the turn. His chk suggests a draw to me ... I think.

Against { JJ-99, AdQd, AdTd, KQs, KdTd, QJs, KQo } you have 55% equity. I guess the question is whether you think he has KQ and QJs in his range or not.

Yes I think they are probably in his range. But, yikes, it's hard for me to say the way he played it. :-/

[daviddem]

I meant to ask about this bet sizing on my end. I was semi-bluffing here and trying to build the pot w/ the expectation of just folding a diamond turn and any aggression. Is a 1/2 pot bet too small for a semi-bluff in situation like this do you think?

If you had TPTK, an overpair, two pairs, a set or even a straight, would you bet so small?

In general, your bluff sizings should be the same as your value bet sizings or your game becomes transparent.

[spoonitnow]

Is anyone else questioning whether the flop continuation bet is +EV in a vacuum?

[daviddem]

I'd say that OP probably overestimates his implied odds because it wouldn't exactly be a well disguised straight.

Add that 2 of his outs may be counterfeit and an A may not be good...

However, what would you suggest? c/f seems to nitty, and c/c doesn't seem too great either (if I am going to continue, I'd rather keep the initiative and set the price).

[seven-deuce]

I think it's going to be very rare that the two villains have missed this flop, so i don't think you'll be getting too many folds with the c-bet, although you do have an open ender and the backdoor nut-flushdraw.

Let's assume you have 8 clean outs, 2 non diamond aces and 3 non diamond kings and 3 non diamond 8's. If you hit on the turn your going to be value betting and not barreling/semi-bluffing, the only cards you can really barrel are clubs but i can't think of any clubs that will increase your fold equity on the turn if you get called on the flop bar the king but you would be value betting then. So there doesn't seem to be any good barrel cards, so you basically need them to fold on the flop which i think is highly unlikely or hit on the turn and you aren't going to hit that often, and you won't win the hand 100% of the times when you do hit either.

[seven-deuce]

Is this how you check if this cbet is +EV in a vacuum, 0.25/(0.25+0.50)=0.30

So you would need 2 folds more than 30% of the time in order for this cbet to be +EV in a vacuum assuming it was a pure bluff i.e not taking into consideration he has equity/outs to make the best hand?

So if they were folding slightly less than 30% it would still be +EV because he would make the best hand on the turn sometimes?

[kiwiMark]

Your equation for finding out how often villain(s) need to fold to make a pure bluff profitable is correct, except the answer should be 0.33 not 0.30

[rowhousepd]

If you had TPTK, an overpair, two pairs, a set or even a straight, would you bet so small?

In general, your bluff sizings should be the same as your value bet sizings or your game becomes transparent.

Hmmm. Probably not. My standard value bet is 2/3rds-3/4ths the pot. (But then again, at the micros I'm not sure anyone is really paying great attention to whether bet was +/- 0.20 cents.) I hear ya. though. Thanks.

So there doesn't seem to be any good barrel cards, so you basically need them to fold on the flop which i think is highly unlikely or hit on the turn and you aren't going to hit that often, and you won't win the hand 100% of the times when you do hit either.

Can someone explain this to me a bit?

Is this how you check if this cbet is +EV in a vacuum, 0.25/(0.25+0.50)=0.30

So you would need 2 folds more than 30% of the time in order for this cbet to be +EV in a vacuum assuming it was a pure bluff i.e not taking into consideration he has equity/outs to make the best hand?

So if they were folding slightly less than 30% it would still be +EV because he would make the best hand on the turn sometimes?

Is this the standard formula you use to get fold equity? Confused.

[spoonitnow]

You still need to take it down bet/(bet+pot) percent of the time to break even on a pure bluff, but you have to take into consideration that there are multiple villains whenever you look at how often you expect them both to fold. Multi-way bluffing situations are much more complicated, but I cover this in my 10,000th post.

[Migo14]

I am with Cobra here and would have just called the river.