[5NL] AJo, BvB in BB, facing maniac bet on river.

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 60/46/24 through 66 hands. His SB steal % was 60%, 3/5. He had folded to 0/4 3bets. He cbet 50% of the time, 4/8.

He had 3bet my UTG raise in the previous hand with AQo in the BB. Cbet the flop after missing, I called him with bottom pair. He checked the turn. Board paired on the river and he bet again, under 1/2 the pot. I called and won. So he might have been on tilt for this hand.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $6.73
SB: $3.20
Hero (BB): $7.09
UTG: $7.00
MP: $5.65
CO: $5.00

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) 4 K 6
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.30, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises to $0.55, Hero calls $0.35

River: ($1.40, 2 players) T
SB bets $1.15, Hero ???

I have no idea where to start in putting a villain like this on a range. If he cbets 50% of the time, can we assume he has missed this flop?

Should I have called the turn raise? Is my AJo good here? Is he overplaying a weaker Ax? Does he have a gut-shot with JQ?

Should I be calling this river bet? JQ & AT just got there but not much else.

Thoughts?

[MadMojoMonkey]

WP. Normally, I'd say it's a fold, but given the history, I'm leaning toward 50/50.

If you've seen him bet this big on the river ever with a bluff, it's a call. I'm not totally convinced that Ax is out of his range and he thinks his 1 pair is good. BUT I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 pair+ either... so 50/50.

Probably sighfold.

Unless you expect to see him again, then call and take a note might be an option.

[seven-deuce]

Given stats i would have 3bet this preflop.

I'd call.

Use bet/(bet+pot) to find out how much equity you need to make a +EV call here, then give villain a stronger range than you know he actually has and see how your hand stacks up, if it has close to 50% against a value heavy range, then this would be an easy call.

[Cobra_1878]

Given stats i would have 3bet this preflop.

I'd call.

Use bet/(bet+pot) to find out how much equity you need to make a +EV call here, then give villain a stronger range than you know he actually has and see how your hand stacks up, if it has close to 50% against a value heavy range, then this would be an easy call.

Why would I want to 3bet pre? Surely there are better spots than this? I don't think he is folding to a 3bet and I'm probably going to be facing a cbet with a marginal hand as it is. Do I not want to keep the pot small?

I will work on what you suggested tomorrow as well, see what I come up with.

[Savy]

I think it's due to his opening range from the SB is pretty big. If you don't think he is going to fold any of his range then 3betting is fantastic as he calls with all of that range which AJ beats.

I also don't think that he will 4bet unless he has a very big hand, in which case you can fold quite happily knowing you would have lost more if an Ace comes up on the flop as you can't really fold a lot of the time.

It means you can cbet the flop and he'll be more likely to fold than he would be* by you calling and if you hit the flop you can just bet for value every time as he'll be calling with worse hands so it's profitable.

* Example

you 3bet, he calls. Same flop comes down he checks to you, you can cbet and you have decent fold equity and if he calls you can be fairly sure he has a piece of the flop which means that your Ace is likely to be pretty good on the turn.


edit - Also from tomorrow I shall be playing 5nl, so watch your back.

[Cobra_1878]

I think it's due to his opening range from the SB is pretty big. If you don't think he is going to fold any of his range then 3betting is fantastic as he calls with all of that range which AJ beats.

I also don't think that he will 4bet unless he has a very big hand, in which case you can fold quite happily knowing you would have lost more if an Ace comes up on the flop as you can't really fold a lot of the time.

It means you can cbet the flop and he'll be more likely to fold than he would be* by you calling and if you hit the flop you can just bet for value every time as he'll be calling with worse hands so it's profitable.

* Example

you 3bet, he calls. Same flop comes down he checks to you, you can cbet and you have decent fold equity and if he calls you can be fairly sure he has a piece of the flop which means that your Ace is likely to be pretty good on the turn.


edit - Also from tomorrow I shall be playing 5nl, so watch your back.

I just don't like building a pot with marginal hands, even against maniacs, as I can never put them on a range. I prefer to wait for better spots and just value bet the shit out of them.

What makes you think he will be more likely to fold if I 3bet him and then cbet? He is a 60/46/24, he really doesn't like to fold.

If he called the 3bet, I would be even more unsure about my AJ being good, he could quite easily have AQ/AK and even AT gets there on the river as well.

Bring it on Savy, bring it on!

[DoubleJ]

Why would I want to 3bet pre? ...I don't think he is folding to a 3bet and I'm probably going to be facing a cbet with a marginal hand...

if u 3Bet and he calls, he can't cBet the flop.

u will have the lead

[Cobra_1878]

if u 3Bet and he calls, he can't cBet the flop.

u will have the lead

Why you have to pick up on that, I was tired!

I doubt he cares about cbetting anyway, he could just as likely donk the flop.

[seven-deuce]

Why would I want to 3bet pre? Surely there are better spots than this?

This is as good a spot as any to 3bet for value here it wouldn't be a bluff. He's going to be calling so much Ax and Jx preflop which you dominate and if you both flop top pair your getting 3 streets of value 100% of the time.

We want to enlarge the pot preflop vs this villain for a few reasons he hates folding so he'll be seeing the flop with a far weaker range than you are in 3bet pots, the second thing is you have position, so you control the free card if villain checks as he will most of the time, also you can cbet dry flops and hope to take it down, lastly when you enlarge the pot preflop your stack to pot ratio is lower postflop making it easier to get your entire stack in over 3 streets which is quite important vs this calling station.

This is the type of villain you don't want to have a 3bet bluffing range against because he's never folding, so it would be a better adjustment to widen your 3bet for value range to include hands such as AJ for example.

[daviddem]

+1 to 3b pre for value

other streets are fine

call river imo (if you don't want to call the river, then you should probably not call the c/r ott)

[spoonitnow]

Why would I want to 3bet pre? Surely there are better spots than this? I don't think he is folding to a 3bet and I'm probably going to be facing a cbet with a marginal hand as it is. Do I not want to keep the pot small?

I will work on what you suggested tomorrow as well, see what I come up with.

If you have a hand that crushes your opponent's range, and you're in position, and your SPR is small, then those are three major things that either give you an advantage, make playing your hand easier or both. That's the idea. I want to re-iterate that you would be in position because it's that important.

I think the hand is played wonderfully on the flop and turn. I'm certain that the river is a profitable call, and you have near the top of your range (if not the absolute top of your range), so I believe it's a clear call.

[Cobra_1878]

This is as good a spot as any to 3bet for value here it wouldn't be a bluff. He's going to be calling so much Ax and Jx preflop which you dominate and if you both flop top pair your getting 3 streets of value 100% of the time.

We want to enlarge the pot preflop vs this villain for a few reasons he hates folding so he'll be seeing the flop with a far weaker range than you are in 3bet pots, the second thing is you have position, so you control the free card if villain checks as he will most of the time, also you can cbet dry flops and hope to take it down, lastly when you enlarge the pot preflop your stack to pot ratio is lower postflop making it easier to get your entire stack in over 3 streets which is quite important vs this calling station.

This is the type of villain you don't want to have a 3bet bluffing range against because he's never folding, so it would be a better adjustment to widen your 3bet for value range to include hands such as AJ for example.

This is something I never take into account, I think I am slightly scared to play maniac villain's as I am never comfortable if I can't put villain on a range. I always adjust to tight villain's, widening my opening range to steal blinds and 3bet bluffing more, but I never adjust for maniac villains and that's probably where I will make the most $$$!

That post is gold btw, thanks.

[jyms]

I 3 bet this pre a lot, but I am also 3 betting a ton in this spot with big Ax hands and looking to get it in if he is in fact a maniac or imbecile. I don't like playing hands IP that like a small SPR by calling, your giving him all sorts of chances to hit. Spoon made some great points, but I would like to point out you have an almost huge card advantage, positional advantage and I would hope a skill advantage so you want to play big pots in these positions always.

The reason you can't put him on a range is you never have the lead and never raise vs someone that has a ton of bluffing capability

[Cobra_1878]

OK, so 1.15/1.15+3.70 = 24% equity needed. ( Have I done it right this time? )

Say villain could have 44, 66, 99+, A9s+, A6s, A4s, KTs+, QJs, A9o+, A6o, A4o, KTo+, QJo.

I can beat 44 combo's, tie with 6, and lose to 66. 44/116 combo's I beat, giving me roughly 38-40% equity? Could be wrong, not sure if I have done that right or not.

If that's right, I have to call?

[daviddem]

No.

You have to call 1.15
Total pot after your call = 3.70

Equity needed = 1.15/3.70 = 31.1%

It's also useful to remember by heart how much equity you need facing a few classic bet sizes for in-play calculations:

2x pot: 40% (3:2)
1.5x pot: 37.5% (5:3)
1x pot: 33.3% (2:1)
3/4 pot: 30% (7:3)
2/3 pot: 28.6% (5:2)
1/2 pot: 25% (3:1)
1/3 pot: 20% (4:1)
1/4 pot: 16.7% (5:1)

Here he bets a little more than 3/4 pot, so you need a little more than 30% equity.

Don't forget to add a few % for rake, so here you probably need about 33 to 34% after taking rake into account.

[seven-deuce]

1.15/(1.15+1.40) = 0.45

So you'd need >45% equity to make a profitable call here, this makes sense because it's almost a PSB where you would need >50% equity for a profitable call.

Stove AJ vs his range and see if it's a call.


Edit - Ignore my post it's wrong.

Re-Edit -

(Amount hero has to call)/(total pot) to be won by hero or villain after you call.

That's the formula.

[daviddem]

For the combos it looks about right but please post the details of your combo counting so we can check if you made any mistake.

edit: you counted correctly, I checked.

However, when you calculate your equity, you should split the "tie" combos between him and you. So:

44 you win
6 you tie
66 he wins

Total combos 116
Take half the tie combos to your account: 44+3 = 47

Your equity: 47/116=40.517%

[Savy]

This is something I never take into account, I think I am slightly scared to play maniac villain's as I am never comfortable if I can't put villain on a range. I always adjust to tight villain's, widening my opening range to steal blinds and 3bet bluffing more, but I never adjust for maniac villains and that's probably where I will make the most $$$!

That post is gold btw, thanks.

You have to remember that you will lose every now and again.

If you can get him to put $3 into the pot every time you have AJ against his calling range where you may be 60% (figure pulled out of my ass but it's just for a point) then you will win

(3 * 0.6) + (-3 * 0.4) = 1.8 - 1.2 = $0.60

So every time it happens you'd have an EV of $0.60

Obviously this is a very simple version of what could happen, but against a calling station who you can outplay most of the time it's still a very profitable thing to do.

It just takes a while to realise it's a profitable thing to do as it can take a while to prove fruitful.

[seven-deuce]

However, when you calculate your equity, you should split the "tie" combos between him and you. So:

44 you win
6 you tie
66 he wins

Total combos 116
Take half the tie combos to your account: 44+3 = 47

Your equity: 47/116=40.517%

I wasn't aware you could check your equity this way, cool.

[daviddem]

I wasn't aware you could check your equity this way, cool.

Only on the river though

[seven-deuce]

Only on the river though

Oh yeah, that's because we don't actually beat 'x' amount of combos because they can hit on turn and river and if we're behind we can hit.

Also if we have the absolute nuts we beat all combos so just shovel the money in.