2013: Make or break

[donkbee]

Courtie - yep entire range. Well certainly entire bluff range and value range. Maybe there are some in between hands like 55-99,78ss type stuff that I may take a differently line with.

The examples you've shown a very small cbet are in 3bet pots where stacks are more shallow (so it makes a lot more sense to bet smaller). Do you also sometimes bet this small in pots where there is only a standard raise and stacks are deeper, or does the size just become like the 77 hand (where it's just slightly less than half pot)?

Are opponents trying to adjust to small cbets by calling more often? If so, are you finding that you have to double or triple barrel much more often than if you were cbetting larger?

[griffey24]

The examples you've shown a very small cbet are in 3bet pots where stacks are more shallow (so it makes a lot more sense to bet smaller). Do you also sometimes bet this small in pots where there is only a standard raise and stacks are deeper, or does the size just become like the 77 hand (where it's just slightly less than half pot)?

Are opponents trying to adjust to small cbets by calling more often? If so, are you finding that you have to double or triple barrel much more often than if you were cbetting larger?

I agree it's easier to bet smaller in 3bet pots due to the shallower stacks, since you're still able to get it in by the river.

I'll try to find some single raised pot hands with small bet sizing. I'd say there are definitely some spots where small bets work well. This would especially be true on dry boards and when we're IP. Small sizing also works well on rivers in big pots when you're trying to induce.

Hey man, good luck this year. Will be following along.

Good luck on the chase to a mill!

have fun with this op! I'll be reading it for sure.
Jumps out that you might be over-estimating the cost of your leaks by a) ignoring when they make you money, b) shania implications, c)etc. But obviously they're worth looking at.
I like that you're playing with post-flop betsizing in 3b pots. A few years ago nutsinho had this as one of the topics in his essay competition to win coaching. Looking back i'm kinda embarrassed by my attempt at this topic, but i've thought about it a lot since then. Nice to read these ideas been implemented and expanded. Cool. Non-standard bet-sizing confuses people...

Yah I don't mind over-estimating the impact of my avoidable losses and treating it as a worst case scenario. Also I think people under-estimate the importance of bet sizing. Proper sizing in hands can certainly be the difference between hands going vs not going as planned.

[griffey24]

Played decently today. Was a pretty crazy session, 3betting 11% with tons of ppl seemingly calling every 3bet. Lot's of swings for sure. Ended up down $230, with variance beating me down a bit.

Avoidable Losses

Total avoidable losses around $575.

10)
Villain and i have been battling a ton. He's been calling lots of 3bets, and raising tons of flops over my small cbets. I've been jamming strong hands over him, and he's seen a few strong hands.

I really don't like my river sizing. I think I should either give up, shove river, or bet very very small just to take him off KQ/QT/T8 or some other FD's.

My sizing is too big for getting rid of his air, but too small for getting folds of Jx. Avoidable losses: $135.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($416.50) 104bb
CO ($649) 162bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($435) 109bb
SB ($837) 209bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
2 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB calls $6

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $10, BB raises to $38, griffey24 calls $28

Turn: ($98, 2 players)
BB bets $66, griffey24 calls $66

River: ($230, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $135, BB calls $135

Final Pot: $500
BB shows

griffey24 shows


BB wins $497 (net +$248)

griffey24 lost $249


11)
Villain in this hand has played pretty straightforward so far. Based on his turn timing and sizing I really don't like this shove. He felt strong to me. I should be calling this turn and re-eval river. Avoidable losses: $250

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($759) 190bb
UTG+1 ($232.25) 58bb
CO ($400) 100bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($439.90) 110bb
SB ($425) 106bb
BB ($462.40) 116bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 checks, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $16, 1 fold, BB calls $12, UTG+1 folds

Flop: ($34, 2 players)
BB bets $29, griffey24 calls $29

Turn: ($92, 2 players)
BB bets $74, griffey24 goes all-in $394.90, BB calls $320.90

River: ($881.80, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $881.80
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $884.80 (net +$444.90)

griffey24 lost $439.90


12)
This hand I'm torn about. Cold caller pre is a fish, 44/15 type, so I think he can be wide enough to have me beat here. Think I should be folding this turn shove, especially since he's shoving with a player to act behind. Avoidable losses: $190

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($399.40) 100bb
UTG+1 ($414.30) 104bb
CO ($391.30) 98bb
BTN ($407.10) 102bb
SB ($559.40) 140bb
griffey24 (BB) ($781) 195bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, BTN raises to $14, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $40, UTG calls $36, CO folds, BTN calls $26

Flop: ($126, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $35, UTG calls $35, BTN calls $35

Turn: ($231, 3 players)
griffey24 bets $135, UTG goes all-in $324.40, BTN folds, griffey24 calls $189.40



Sizing hands


13)
This hand the flop can go either way. I don't mind calling and letting a bluff continue, or 3betting here. After flatting, this river is a bit weird. I've definitely seen ppl spew here after convincing themselves that they are repping a boat by raising flop and checking back turn. I'm surprised to see the hand he showed up with, and not sure what he would have done had I 3bet the flop.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($630.75) 158bb
BTN ($429.20) 107bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($225.60) 56bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is SB
CO raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, CO calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $18, CO raises to $56, griffey24 calls $38

Turn: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO checks

River: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $140.95, CO goes all-in $542.75, griffey24 calls $171.05

Final Pot: $804
CO shows


CO wins $1,263.50 (net +$632.75)

griffey24 lost $400


14)
Villain was kinda taggy. This is where flop sizing like this can get you into tough spots. I think after betting so small, he might definitely raise hands like QJ/KQ and maybe even some 78 stuff. This river is a pretty good card because I think all of these draws end up continuing with their hands, so I think a call is ok here?


Board: Th 9d 2s 4s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.941% 52.94% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 47.059% 47.06% 00.00% 8 0.00 { TT-99, 2c2d, AhQh, AsQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 8s7s }


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($228) 114bb
UTG+1 ($211.95) 106bb
CO ($298.45) 149bb
BTN ($197) 99bb
SB ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (BB) ($263.60) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $8, BTN raises to $23, griffey24 calls $15

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $44, griffey24 calls $44

River: ($175, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $110, griffey24 calls $110


Profits on year: $1,930
Avoidable losses on year: $1,310

Avoidable losses are definitely too big right now!

[donkbee]

13)
This hand the flop can go either way. I don't mind calling and letting a bluff continue, or 3betting here. After flatting, this river is a bit weird. I've definitely seen ppl spew here after convincing themselves that they are repping a boat by raising flop and checking back turn. I'm surprised to see the hand he showed up with, and not sure what he would have done had I 3bet the flop.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($630.75) 158bb
BTN ($429.20) 107bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($225.60) 56bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is SB
CO raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, CO calls $24

Flop: ($68, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $18, CO raises to $56, griffey24 calls $38

Turn: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, CO checks

River: ($180, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $140.95, CO goes all-in $542.75, griffey24 calls $171.05

Final Pot: $804
CO shows


CO wins $1,263.50 (net +$632.75)

griffey24 lost $400

I think that 3betting the flop is a lot better than b/c. Your range looks a lot stronger if you b/c, so he is less likely to continue with his air. If you 3bet the flop, he might be induced to put in more money with air.

I also think the river has to be a fold. He can't possibly think that he has fold equity and there isn't anything that he jams that you beat.

14)
Villain was kinda taggy. This is where flop sizing like this can get you into tough spots. I think after betting so small, he might definitely raise hands like QJ/KQ and maybe even some 78 stuff. This river is a pretty good card because I think all of these draws end up continuing with their hands, so I think a call is ok here?


Board: Th 9d 2s 4s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.941% 52.94% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 47.059% 47.06% 00.00% 8 0.00 { TT-99, 2c2d, AhQh, AsQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 8s7s }


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($228) 114bb
UTG+1 ($211.95) 106bb
CO ($298.45) 149bb
BTN ($197) 99bb
SB ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (BB) ($263.60) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $8, BTN raises to $23, griffey24 calls $15

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $44, griffey24 calls $44

River: ($175, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $110, griffey24 calls $110

I don't like the small bet on this flop. I really don't want my opponent to raise when I have this hand.

[griffey24]

Courtie -

KK hand - I think b/3b on the flop doesn't necessarily look stronger, it just looks more polarized. My b/c range is prob very wide on this board (similarly to my 89cc hand) given my sizing. Prob b/c 7x+ on this board.

So my b/3b range is prob overpairs, AT, FD's and complete air.

89cc hand - If you bet bigger you're going to be facing a jam likely with QJ and some KQ as well. Are you b/c or b/f?