Flush on turn. Missed value or correct play?

[davisrei]

Bovada 10NL (6-max)

The SB has been playing fairly sensible, conservative poker up to this point.

UTG $ 9.00
UTG+1 $11.65
MP $ 4.05
CO Empty Seat
SB $12.35
BB (Hero) $10.12

Hero dealt: [7 9]

UTG Limps .10, fold, fold, SB calls .05, Hero calls (Pot: .30)

Flop: [A A K]

SB checks, Hero bets .30, UTG folds, SB calls .30 (Pot .90)

(Given the dangerousness of the flop, I thought it best to bet out on the flop as a semi-bluff to rep having an A, and possibly take the pot there.)


Turn: [8]

SB checks, Hero Bets .90, SB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.60 (Pot $5.90)

(Okay, now I know that the SB has some kind of hand. He may have come in with a weak ace, let me lead the flop, and is now lowering the boom on the turn, or he may have just made his flush draw, like I did. He might have had A-8, and now has a full house. Given his pre-flop betting, I doubt that he had AA, AK, or KK, but it's possible that he slow played up to this point, being that he was in the SB with very little pre-flop action.)



River: [Q]

SB bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75 (Pot: $13.40)

SB now takes the lead in betting with a 2/3 pot bet, which given the strength that was previously shown, looks like a value bet that is courting a re-raise from me. Looking at my hand, I am being beaten by AA, AK, AQ, A8, and any club flush where he holds a Q, J, or 10. Rather than re-raise, I call.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't really like the bet OTF. I don't hate it, as this board is scary and your bluff might work. If you're going to bet this flop, then you really must have a plan for what happens when you get called. You need to have pre-considered what each villains range is to call or raise.

A good rule of thumb is to avoid drawing on paired boards. But then, I assume you were planning on giving up if you didn't catch a club, anyway.

My spidey sense starts is tingling when he raises OTT. I can't find a fold, but I just want a cheap showdown at this point. So you can see that betting the flop leaves you in a very difficult spot to achieve your implied odds on your draw.

sighcall OTR. You have a flush, and unless you've seen Villain check it down OOP with trips, you have to include all Ax in his range. To be clear, Villain is V-towning you with the bet OTR, it's just a matter if he thinks trips is a good hand to bet for value after the turn line. There are always the other flushes.

You should never raise a paired board OTR with less than a boat. Or a read that Villain folds big hands to raises OTR (lol, sometimes they show you).

Argggghhh the pain! the PAIN!! How can you fold, but it's sooooo close that I wouldn't be surprised if we're beat way more than the odds of a call dictate.

I'm not sure you can rule out 88 from Villain's range. I doubt he has QQ+,AQ+ though. A sensible player does not slow-play from the SB to a UTG limp. A sensible player doesn't give away free cards to the BB when they have a nut hand. (AQo is still a nut hand pre-flop to no raise, right?).

[davisrei]

I don't really like the bet OTF. I don't hate it, as this board is scary and your bluff might work. If you're going to bet this flop, then you really must have a plan for what happens when you get called. You need to have pre-considered what each villains range is to call or raise.

My thinking was that this is an excellent bluffing flop, either for myself, or for my opponent. If I raise the pot, and get re-raised, then I can fold knowing that I've only lost the flop bet. And that the addition of the fold equity might give me a decent stab at getting the right expressed odds for the turn card.

[more thinking now] Additionally, it might buy me a free turn card toward my flush if my opponent is holding trips and thinks that I might continue betting on the turn, but would be scared off if he took control of the hand on the turn, or re-raised the flop. Also, if I don't bet, he can lead out on the turn with anything and force a fold if a blank hits.

Good point on the call/fold range. I was thinking more about his fold/raise range here.

A good rule of thumb is to avoid drawing on paired boards. But then, I assume you were planning on giving up if you didn't catch a club, anyway.

Absolutely. If he didn't fold to the flop bet, then this was a mandatory c/f situation unless that club hit.

My spidey sense starts is tingling when he raises OTT. I can't find a fold, but I just want a cheap showdown at this point. So you can see that betting the flop leaves you in a very difficult spot to achieve your implied odds on your draw.

sighcall OTR. You have a flush, and unless you've seen Villain check it down OOP with trips, you have to include all Ax in his range. To be clear, Villain is V-towning you with the bet OTR, it's just a matter if he thinks trips is a good hand to bet for value after the turn line. There are always the other flushes.

You should never raise a paired board OTR with less than a boat. Or a read that Villain folds big hands to raises OTR (lol, sometimes they show you).

Argggghhh the pain! the PAIN!! How can you fold, but it's sooooo close that I wouldn't be surprised if we're beat way more than the odds of a call dictate.

I'm not sure you can rule out 88 from Villain's range. I doubt he has QQ+,AQ+ though. A sensible player does not slow-play from the SB to a UTG limp. A sensible player doesn't give away free cards to the BB when they have a nut hand. (AQo is still a nut hand pre-flop to no raise, right?).

Yes, and I agree, this was probably a thin value situation. So, thanks for the answer. I was probably right to not attempt to jam the pot OTR. Lots of good info to think about here.

[Arjonius]

When you bet the flop, UTG is still in the hand, so you have to consider how he is playing and what his limping range is, not just the SB. So there are two opponents, either or both of whom could have limped an A depending how they play. I'd bet here against some types opponents, but not a lot; i.e. I'd usually check rather than bet my smallish flush draw into both of them on a paired board.

[spoonitnow]

Flop bet is great. Getting raised on the turn is the problem because of reversed implied odds and having to play the river. I feel like the turn is a bet/fold.

[daven]

flop is a fine spot to take a stab but do it cheaper, 18c gets the job done too. Don't be calling the turn check-raise. As played don't call the river.

[davisrei]

Flop bet is great. Getting raised on the turn is the problem because of reversed implied odds and having to play the river. I feel like the turn is a bet/fold.

Wow, I hadn't thought about how much air the paired aces and my flush sucked out of the room! Of the hands that could reasonably raise on the turn without beating me, it was either aggressively played trips, or a flush with an 8 as it's highest card. Ouch.

If I had instead had the Q J, which would have made it possible for my opponent to have a 10 flush, and given me the nut flush, would that have changed the turn to a b/c situation?

[spoonitnow]

Wow, I hadn't thought about how much air the paired aces and my flush sucked out of the room! Of the hands that could reasonably raise on the turn without beating me, it was either aggressively played trips, or a flush with an 8 as it's highest card. Ouch.

If I had instead had the Q J, which would have made it possible for my opponent to have a 10 flush, and given me the nut flush, would that have changed the turn to a b/c situation?

It's closer, but I think it might still be a bet/fold. Your reversed implied odds are a big deal here.

[Icanhastreebet]

Flop smaller, b/f turn not even close really basically because when you bet the flop and get called villains continuing range is going to be like AAKKx+. If you have QcJc it's probably still b/f because the average villain isn't going to be raising smaller flushes on the turn.

[pocketfours]

snap fold turn, like everything else.