[2NL] ATo, TPTK. Weird river shove?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 15/7 and called pre-flop. What's the pre-flop range you (kmind) put Villain on to get those boats/quads?

Why would you suspect any PP lower than 66... much less the T7, 74, T4?

Can you put this villain on T9 or 97, given Villain's position, pre-flop stats, and the donk bet on the flop?

Is this villain going to 2-barrel 2nd pair w/ 99?

How about an OESD w/ 98s? Does this villain shove 2nd pair on the river?

Villain's TP hands are many (AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s) and only the T9 gets there on the river. Would this villain 2-barrel with a 9-kicker?

A slow-played pair, TT - QQ, makes the most sense. Of course, the A7 (which means the donk bet is made as a bluff before it catches trips on the turn) is in there. I can't find any good reason to exclude 77 from pre-flop range, but the turn gives 77 only 1 combo.

OP: "[Villain] had definitely picked up on the fact [Hero] was stealing a lot from the button"

As evidenced by... ?

He started snap calling my button raises, 3 on the run I believe it was.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Monkey, 41 hands, not enough for accurate stats. He can have 44 pretty easy imo.

Of course, but why post any stats if you're going to just ignore them and say, "small sample"? Even a sample of 1 or 2 hands is enough to make a preliminary read. Of course, alter the read as more info is gleaned. What range do you put Villain on?
Can anyone give relevant advice to bet or fold, if not giving Villain a range? Even a vacuum range?
That's the first thing that was drilled into me when I started posting.

He started snap calling my button raises, 3 on the run I believe it was.

Definitely include this in the hand info.

So you think he may be playing ATC pre-flop? This is at least as important as including the 15/7.
What range do you give Villain for donking the flop?

[Cobra_1878]

Of course, but why post any stats if you're going to just ignore them and say, "small sample"? Even a sample of 1 or 2 hands is enough to make a preliminary read. Of course, alter the read as more info is gleaned. What range do you put Villain on?
Can anyone give relevant advice to bet or fold, if not giving Villain a range? Even a vacuum range?
That's the first thing that was drilled into me when I started posting.


Definitely include this in the hand info.

So you think he may be playing ATC pre-flop? This is at least as important as including the 15/7.
What range do you give Villain for donking the flop?

Yeah sorry, I see why that's pretty important. Yeah when he calls pre for 3rd/4th time on run he could pretty much be holding anything. Tbh I put his donk down to a bluff, he was very strangely folding his hands when the flop come out, not even giving me a chance to cbet. figured he was frustrated with missing the flop and tried leading out and couldn't give up the bluff. Or at least that's how it felt to me.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Tbh I put his donk down to a bluff, he was very strangely folding his hands when the flop come out, not even giving me a chance to cbet. figured he was frustrated with missing the flop and tried leading out and couldn't give up the bluff. Or at least that's how it felt to me.

Ahhh... see, this is the good stuff. This is the info I need.

Villain has shown a tendency to fold on the flop to no bet OOP in heads up pots? Then, Villain bets a flop OOP in a multi-way pot and you think it's a bluff? I seriously doubt it.

I'd call the flop, because it sounds like I've already stolen more than that from this Villain, not because I think I'm ahead. So, in essence, I'd freeroll Villain with his own chips for a 10% draw to improve. When the board pairs on the turn, with this read, I fold knowing I am exploiting this fool.

[rpm]

I'd call the flop, because it sounds like I've already stolen more than that from this Villain, not because I think I'm ahead. So, in essence, I'd freeroll Villain with his own chips for a 10% draw to improve.

this is bogus logic imo. how much you have won or lost off a player in the past doesn't affect the EV of any of our decisions in a current hand.