[2NL] AA on button

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 54/0 through 26 hands. Limped 64% of the time calling a raise afterwards 67% of the time. Donk bet 67% of flops, folding to flop raises 33% of the time.

Had seen him limp/call UTG with KQo. Limp/call in the CO with 86s & limp/call on button with 99. I noticed he seemed to min bet on draws and would usually call raises as well, even with gut shots.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($4.27)
Button ($4.83)
SB ($1.81)
BB ($4.53)
UTG ($2.10)
Hero (MP) ($2.17)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.06, 2 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.18) 10, 7, 9 (3 players)
SB bets $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.14, SB calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.46) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.30

River: ($1.66) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $1.01 (All-In), Hero ???

Completely lost. Couldn't play this guy at all.

[Pascal]

Raise more flop, fold turn.

You're never ahead of a min turn c/r on that board

[kmind]

Raise more on the flop, call turn and call river.

Your reads indicate he plays his draws this way too plus the fact that he could even have an overpair/T9/etc.

[supa]

So much crap we beat in his range. Def bigger on flop. Don't stop raising until the chips are in imo.

[OngBonga]

Well with a 54/0 in the hand I'm raising this pre flop to 10c.
Flop def raise more, at least 20c.
Agree with pascal, can't see b/c being good on turn, either b/f or check behind for pot control, calling most river bets.
As played I suppose puke call, but I'm not expecting us to be the right side of 50%.

[Arjonius]

Unless you have reason to think your opponents at this particular table will both notice and adapt to your bet sizing, you can open for more with your premium pair. 5-6x is fine. Even 8-10x isn't out of the question.

Note that the idea isn't to get them to fold. It's that people at this level will often do the same thing whether you 3x or 5+x. This being so, you want to get them to put more in the pot rather than less.

[daven]

bigger pre, raise flop bigger, fold vs turn min-check-raise, fold river as played is my gut reaction, but you're getting close to 3:1 on the call, meh.

[Cobra_1878]

I don't understand everyone saying bigger pre? Surely if my standard raise is 3x BB then I should stick to it? Suddenly betting 4/5/6x says I have a big hand?

[jyms]

3bb pre is the problem, not the standard

[supa]

I don't understand everyone saying bigger pre? Surely if my standard raise is 3x BB then I should stick to it? Suddenly betting 4/5/6x says I have a big hand?

Lots of reasons to change up your bet sizing esp pre. In this case, do you think a 54/0 is gonna fold a hand he'd call 3x with if you 5x'd? Sure he might notice the difference but ask yourself why he calls with crap all the time. Does he think he's gonna "get lucky"? Would betting larger change that thought process or is there just more luck money in the pot for him to win?

Treebet once wrote about knowing why a villain does what he does and owning him (something like that). Figure out why villain makes stupid fish calls pre and adjust bet size accordingly.

I get Davens point about folding the turn, don't think I'm folding though. I still think he has enough garbage in his range to make river a call.

[OngBonga]

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
I don't understand everyone saying bigger pre? Surely if my standard raise is 3x BB then I should stick to it? Suddenly betting 4/5/6x says I have a big hand?

So open x5 with all your value range vs this guy in position.

[Cobra_1878]

OK, thanks. It's something I have thought a lot about to be honest, usually I only change my bet sizing pre if people are limping in or I am stealing.

I have gone over raising more pre to get value, but I hate doing so with AK/AQ for e.g then having to fold it because I missed the flop & I know he's not folding with any pair to any bet.

[Icanhastreebet]

I have gone over raising more pre to get value, but I hate doing so with AK/AQ for e.g then having to fold it because I missed the flop & I know he's not folding with any pair to any bet.

As long as you keep getting more money in pre with more equity you will be making way more money especially since it's way easier to build a huge pot when we hit a hand. On top of this "we" still have the ability to get away from weak hands whereas our opponent won't.

[joker131]

with ready made hands pre flop, u should get more in 5x looks right. if u get a call. get it all in after the flop.

[Cobra_1878]

with ready made hands pre flop, u should get more in 5x looks right. if u get a call. get it all in after the flop.

Again I worry about this, surely I am only getting called by better hands, 2P upwards, on the flop if I shove with an overpair. I don't see many people calling with TP/draws.

[supa]

Again I worry about this, surely I am only getting called by better hands, 2P upwards, on the flop if I shove with an overpair. I don't see many people calling with TP/draws.

And again, you have to stop worrying about this shit. You are going to lose some of the time. Filter for AA all in on the flop and see how much you've won. I guarantee you show a profit on it. Do this now before you post again telling us about how scared you are about getting AA (or whatever) in on the flop.

There certainly are ways to better maximize your ev with these hands and you'll learn that in time. But there's no way you aren't profiting from it.

[OngBonga]

I don't like the term "ready made hands", we're getting more money in pre because our hand is ahead of his calling range, not because we have a big pair. I'm opening x5 QJo for value vs this guy when we have the button.

[chemist]

... Does he think he's gonna "get lucky"? ...

Think he does and think he did.

Raise more flop, fold turn.

You're never ahead of a min turn c/r on that board

How true, but how difficult to see through the AA glasses, and even harder after committing more with a bigger flop raise.

Is it wrong to shove the flop and then moan about the stupid suckout, donks reward, dodgy dealing, bad luck, variance etc on the Turn?

[Arjonius]

I don't understand everyone saying bigger pre? Surely if my standard raise is 3x BB then I should stick to it? Suddenly betting 4/5/6x says I have a big hand?

For increasing your bet sizing to matter, what has to happen? First, the opponent has to notice.

Second, even if he does notice, he has to act differently depending on your sizing.

At 2NL, it's simply not correct to assume everyone will do both of these things. It's more likely that the majority won't.

Especially at his level, fish make plenty of poor plays because they don't know any better or just can't help themselves. Giving them the chance to lose more when they make those poor plays can be pretty profitable.