[2NL] J8s IP. Flop the Nuts

[Cobra_1878]

Was the 4th hand of the session so absolutely nothing to go on. I had been super aggressive in my first 2 hands though as I got dealt KK & ATs.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($2.18)
MP ($0.76)
Hero (CO) ($2.22)
Button ($1.07)
SB ($2.20)
BB ($1.09)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, J
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, BB checks

Flop: ($0.08) 10, 9, Q (4 players)
SB bets $0.06, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.24, SB calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.56) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.37, SB raises to $0.74, Hero calls $0.37

River: ($2.04) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $1.20 (All-In), Hero ???

I haven't got a clue if I have played this right at all (except for the limp pre-flop obv. Hate the min raise on the turn and the shove on river. Can I really fold this?

[mbiz]

why hate villains raise and shove when you have like 2nd nuts? He's doing the hard work for you

[OngBonga]

Paired board, we're far from the 2nd nuts. Not that I'm folding. Based on the fact that we have an aggressive image already, this could be 9x or a bluff. I'd expect a lot of 2nl villains to stack a set on the flop, and 2pr tend to get overvalued at these stakes on these kind of flops, so again I expect 2pr to 3bet flop with high frequency vs unknowns. So yeah, calling this happily.

Note... we didn't flop the nuts. Sorry if this appears nitpicking, but KJ is in villains' limp ranges.

[MikeMcFlack]

Raise his limp pre flop

[OngBonga]

I don't hate limping behind with this hand at 2nl.

[Icanhastreebet]

I don't hate limping behind with this hand at 2nl.

I don't hate it either. You'll make WAY more by raising though unless BB is like 90/x that can't fold postflop but folds to 4-5x's pre(lolwat).

This is really kind of puke. I'm not sure what the average villain has here at 2NL. I mean how often do villains donklead 9x/Tx/Qx/call a big raise. c/minraise the turn when they make 3 of a kind or 2pair then shove the river?

If it's a little over 50% then happily call the c/mr and river shove.

Btw 50% is just a number that seems close, do the math yourself so you know how many combos we need to beat etc.

[OngBonga]

I don't hate it either. You'll make WAY more by raising though unless BB is like 90/x that can't fold postflop but folds to 4-5x's pre(lolwat).

Yeah I think I raise this spot more often than I limp, but after playing blinds aggressively I might just limp on this occasion, fearing a 3bet. I assume we know nothing about the bb, so I'd consider there some value in seeing how he reacts to a limp frenzy on his blind.

[Cobra_1878]

Paired board, we're far from the 2nd nuts. Not that I'm folding. Based on the fact that we have an aggressive image already, this could be 9x or a bluff. I'd expect a lot of 2nl villains to stack a set on the flop, and 2pr tend to get overvalued at these stakes on these kind of flops, so again I expect 2pr to 3bet flop with high frequency vs unknowns. So yeah, calling this happily.

Note... we didn't flop the nuts. Sorry if this appears nitpicking, but KJ is in villains' limp ranges.

Yeah I realized KJ was the nuts, was meant to edit and forgot, sorry about that.

[OngBonga]

It's no biggie, we obv have a very strong hand we can call the virtual nuts on the flop, but since the actual nuts is bang in their ranges, we still have to consider it. AA on a A45r flop is the nuts in a 4bet pot vs a 15/14 because villain has 23 somewhere in the region of never, but we can't discount KJ here.

[surviva316]

I see that wayne's got this one under control.

BTW, what does qualified user mean? Surely it can't be a good thing of Ongie has it.

EDIT: Apparently I have it, too. NOOOO!

[Pascal]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2101924

[OngBonga]

BTW, what does qualified user mean? Surely it can't be a good thing of Ongie has it.

I cry a little bit every time you say something mean to me. The others, I don't care, but when it's you, it upsets me. When I first started playing online poker, I looked at my online stats and saw a comment you made, something like "very good, time to step up?". I thought you were my friend, I thought you were different. But you're mean to me, you're just like the others.

Sniff.

[Miffed22001]

Id play for stacks - but expect to be beat enough.
Given villain could have a 9 - id call and expect to be good enough often enough

[Shotglass]

Yeah I think I raise this spot more often than I limp, but after playing blinds aggressively I might just limp on this occasion, fearing a 3bet.

Why be afraid of the 3bet? If we raise his limp then the hand plays itself.

[OngBonga]

Why be afraid of the 3bet? If we raise his limp then the hand plays itself.

Because we don't know how often bb 3bets.

[Shotglass]

Because we don't know how often bb 3bets.

I'd worry about the 3b when (if) it happens.

[supa]

Why in gods name would we raise pre when we'll most likely be 4 handed to the flop and have an amazing implied odds hand that will more than likely be well concealed when we hit?

[supa]

Just read treebets post above. Mulling that over.

[ColdDecked]

I think I would raise pre here until I learn more about villain's tendencies because like yaawn said, there are a ton of villains who limp fold pre so often that it's probably more +EV to be raising pre. Over-limping isn't bad either.

Not too sure about turn, but in game I'd probably call it off because I'm a station.

[Arjonius]

Iso-raising the limper is better than limping behind. The implied odds argument isn't as strong as it is with different stack sizes. In this case, the limper's is fairly small plus a couple of those still to act only have half stacks. Plus limping invites the other players to raise, esp. the button.

Also nothing wrong with simply folding pre-.

[Icanhastreebet]

I'd opt to raise this hand behind as opposed to overlimp because in a heads up pot a pair of Js or 8s is going to be a pretty strong hand against this guys limping range and J8s isn't going to nail that many flops in terms of straight/flush potential. A hand like 76s would be closer to a limp because you really want to play it multiway UNLESS you know villain likes to limp/fold(We pound on limps so we usually find this out quickly) or villain is very fold happy post. I mean 76s is not going to do as well in a heads up pot but does amazing multiway because it has lots of straight/flush potential flops but almost no value in terms of pair making.

Edit: I guess there's more to it then that but that's probably the simplest way to put it so you can begin to understand why you iso certain hands and prefer to overlimp others. Also as a default if your not sure whether to iso raise or limp always opt for the more aggressive option. Actually in almost any spot where you are on the fence opt for the more aggressive option.

[Icanhastreebet]

Also nothing wrong with simply folding pre-.

There is a lot wrong because it's a huge mistake. I guarantee the difference between folding v the worst of the other 2 options is going to be a considerably larger eV error then if you were to just compare the other 2 options.

[Arjonius]

There is a lot wrong because it's a huge mistake. I guarantee the difference between folding v the worst of the other 2 options is going to be a considerably larger eV error then if you were to just compare the other 2 options.

Guarantee? What assumptions are you making? And not making? Also, how do you arrive at the difference being huge as opposed to something less substantial?

It would be a whole lot more helpful if you'd provide your thinking instead of just saying I'm wrong. I may be, but I don't see why from what you wrote.

[ColdDecked]

Overlimping and raising should both be +EV while folding is 0EV

[Icanhastreebet]

Guarantee? What assumptions are you making? And not making? Also, how do you arrive at the difference being huge as opposed to something less substantial?

It would be a whole lot more helpful if you'd provide your thinking instead of just saying I'm wrong. I may be, but I don't see why from what you wrote.

Actually if you weren't so quick to post you would have seen the post directly above mine outlines a few of the reasons J8s should be an iso.

[Icanhastreebet]

Overlimping and raising should both be +EV while folding is 0EV

Raising AA to any amount of bb up to 10kbb is +EV too. That doesn't mean it's the optimal play.

[ColdDecked]

well ldo

Arjonius said nothing wrong with folding pre. But yes, there is something wrong with folding pre cuz you'd pass up +EV spot.