UGH QQ bu v b v b

[supa]

Another line of thought: What about set mining? (*note: All of the following calculations hinge on the assumption that SB will not 5-bet.)

Hero bets $0.50 for value, hoping for a call, but expecting 2 folds. This bet is excluded from the implied odds calculation.

Set mining: (odds)*(bet) - (pot) <= (ESS)
odds = 7.51/1 = 7.51 ~= 8
pot = 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.50 + 1.30 + 3.45 = 5.25
bet = 3.45 - 0.50 = 2.95
ESS(SB) = $17.15
ESS(BB) = $22.54

using exact odds:
7.51*2.95 - 5.25 = 16.90
Hero is barely priced in to set mine against SB, fine against BB.

using approximate odds:
8*2.95 - 5.25 = 18.35
Hero is still priced in to set mine against BB, but not SB.

If the $0.50 was a complete bluff/steal, which Hero expected to check/fold on most flops, then it gets tight enough to fold
7.51*3.65 - 5.25 = 22.16
8*3.65 - 5.25 = 23.95

Using the exact odds, Hero is barely priced in to set mine vs. BB. It's a losing proposition against SB.

In all of this, though, I'm assuming that either the BB or the SB will continue past the flop. Doesn't the idea that both might continue and stack off against a set make this even more +EV? Or are there enough boards on which Hero catches a set and still loses that this is moot?

What about the % of time bb shoves over the top?

Something Bikes recently pointed out to me about 2bb steals (I was doing it from the SB) is it gives the BB just too good of a price to call with basically anything even remotely playable, of course this problem is even more compounded if you do it from the button.

That said, if people aren't adjusting, keep doing it.

Another reason I don't like doing it.

did mojo just write a wall of maths about setmining in a 4bet pot?

Why yes, I believe he did.