Preflop ranging

[Zorkion]

Ok, so after my 58s thread, I was made aware that I suck preflop. That said, I still have some questions about how we determine whether or not to play the more borderline hands, and which hands those are.

Basically, where my level of understanding is at is that set mining is a pretty clear, and well-discussed topic, which I'd like to believe I have a decent understanding of. Also, playing the premium hands is obvious and clear in fr cash games, because hey, thats where you get the majority of your profit (assuming your postflop play doesnt suck as bad as my preflop game)

So that leaves two other main groupings of hands: questionable ones, and shit hands. Shit hands are obvious (eg, 27o, 93o, etc), and theres probably some overlap between what I consider questionable hands and what other consider ldfo shit hands, but for the sake of this, Ill just say that questionable hands are the ones that I personally am unsure of.

The sort of hands im thinking of here are mid/high gappers/connectors, and almost all suited connectors/gappers (down to 5 low or so, lets say)

With this beginning, we can start to consider the other variables at hand, namely position, opponents, chipstacks, and actions.

There are some situations here that are pretty clear, imo, for example, when a tag ep with a normal stack opens for a standard amount, you generally shouldnt call with easily dominated hands like kjo from the blinds, because you get yourself into awful situations postflop with terrible reverse implied odds, and you lose lots of money.

But say instead, for example, youre up against a tag ep with a full stack, and you find yourself in oh...mp/lp with a mid suited gapper(<.<). How do we mathematically determine whether it is a +ev decision or not to play this hand? How does this change as the opponents stats change (eg., instead of tag, lag, loose passive, calling station), with consideration given for different chipstacks.

I have a fair idea of some basic parts of this, like being able to call with wider ranges against opponents with weaker opening ranges, and weighting your calling range to more premium hands as your implied odds diminish with smaller chipstacks, but I include those so as to be comprehensive.

I recall seeing a thread a while back where someone (i forget who) posted some tables of how different hands hit the flop over the long run, using flopzilla. In retrospect, I probably should have saved those tables, but ive only just now downloaded flopzilla, and am trying to figure it out (if anyone can give hints on how to use it/links, that would be greatly appreciated too)

Ive read through a bunch of the preflop strategy articles both in the beginners digest, and in rpm's awesome link post, but I havent seen anything that actually discusses the math of these decisions instead of just general strategy ideas, and from my studies, I know that sometimes mathematical analysis can lend counter-intuitive insight into seemingly obvious situations.


OK, tl;dr, i know, so ill recap. What is the MATH we use to determine whether or not to play a given questionable hand preflop, either opening, calling someones open, or whatnot?


[disclaimer: i know this may be pretty newb, but hey, this IS the bc, after all]

[baudib]

I mentioned this in the other thread and writing/thinking about it actually sort of switched a light bulb on for me, the part about playing pps for set mining only vs. very strong range, dumping them vs. weak ranges (like steals from aggro players in LP) and calling those players with suited connectors instead.

But in general you can start out by almost completely eliminating the times you cold-call pre to pocket pairs and good suited connectors in position in multiway pots and stuff like good pairs (88-TT) and KQs, AJs-AQs. Start out playing something like 12/10 or 17/14 or whatever and add more flatting hands when you have a better feel for what you're doing postflop.

[DoubleJ]

ive only just now downloaded flopzilla, and am trying to figure it out

Hi Zorkion,

Thanks for the heads-up on Flopzilla - did you figure out how it works yet?

[eugmac]

If really rudimentary probabilities are what you're looking for:
Poker Odds, Poker Probabilities, Common Flop Odds & Charts

A suited connector has about 20% chance of flopping a straight or flush draw, each about 10%.
A suited gapper has the same odds of flopping the flush draw, but only 2/3 the odds of flopping the straight draw. A two-gapper flops a SD only 5% of the time.

[eugmac]

Some common situations:

What range would you choose to cold-call with and why? What range might we 3-bet?

Let's say you have 100bb in all of the following situations. These are all full-ring by the way.

1. A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.

2. You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.

3. You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.

4. A 80/30 crazy person opens in MP for 6bb, he's running good and 200bb. You're BU.

5. Same as above, but you're SB and he's BU.

[eugmac]

6. A loose-passive open limps in MP. You're two off the button. Obviously there is no cold calling here, only limp behind or raise.

7. The same loose-passive limps UTG, 3 players limp behind and you're BU.

[Zorkion]

sorry, ive been meaning to work through these, but ive been busy with school. i will get to it soon though, i dont want you to think the post wasted

[DoubleJ]

Some common situations:.....

Hey eugmac - thanks for doing this; mucho appreciato

can anyone play?

...and post our answers ITT?

[DoubleJ]

OK here goes for 1 to 3...

A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-AJo,KQo
3Bet: KK+,AK
Not folding JJ or QQ here, but also prolly not 3Betting either?

You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.
Call: TT-66,ATs-A7s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo,KJo
3Bet: JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,Kqo

You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
3Bet: JJ+,AKs,AKo

[insert howls of derisive laughter here]

[rpm]

(edit) howl of (/edit) derisive laughter

[DoubleJ]

derisive laughter

howls of...?

[rpm]

i'll edit that shit in

[baudib]

Well this should be interesting.

Pretty much the exact opposite of this for me:

OK here goes for 1 to 3...

A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-AJo,KQo
3Bet: KK+,AK
Not folding JJ or QQ here, but also prolly not 3Betting either?

You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.
Call: TT-66,ATs-A7s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo,KJo
3Bet: JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,Kqo

You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
3Bet: JJ+,AKs,AKo

1. Folding everything but pocket pairs and AK vs. the nit 4xing UTG.
2. Probably flatting JJ+/AJs+ and 3-betting suited connectors and Axs and some small pairs, folding extremely small pairs.
3. Seems okish but probably squeeze a bit wider.

[DoubleJ]

bugger

OK - i guess u can't right now, but can u drop back later and explain [small wurdz plizz] y i'm such a dumb-arse??



i thank you.

[baudib]

1. AQ- doesn't play very well vs. the nit's UTG range and even the presence of the fish having position on us doesn't really make it that more enticing. I've mentioned it in other threads recently but suited connectors don't play that well either vs. this type of range -- there are spots to call with 22 and fold JTs and vice versa. This spot, we'd rather have 22 than JTs.

2. If he's solid he's probably opening the BTN wide regardless of whether or not he's TAG or LAG. If he's TAG though he's probably folding a lot to 3-bets so it seems a waste to 3-bet our premiums here. 3-bet him with hands that probably can't call profitably but will have ~30ish% vs. his continuing range.

In general, in most spots 3-betting something like AJs vs. the BTN seems like a mistake when we are going to flop well with good top pairs, gutshots and flush draws.

[eugmac]

OK here goes for 1 to 3...

A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-AJo,KQo
3Bet: KK+,AK
Not folding JJ or QQ here, but also prolly not 3Betting either?

You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.
Call: TT-66,ATs-A7s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo,KJo
3Bet: JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,Kqo

You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.
Call: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s, AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
3Bet: JJ+,AKs,AKo

[insert howls of derisive laughter here]

Yeah baudib's answer is close to how I'd play these spots.

1. Further questions for DoubleJ: when you call a nit's UTG raise with ATo, what do you expect will happen on an A-high flop? Do we expect this to be a profitable situation?

What is your plan for post-flop when you call with 87s?

2. What will happen the majority of the time vs a decent tag reg when you 3-bet him?

[baudib]

well i just realized how ridiculous that 3-bet range would be, we would have to polarize it as a winning TAG is going to adjust pretty quickly after we 3-bet him 3 times in a row and then we flat and own him with JJ+/AK. so maybe we would 3-bet xx% of JJ+/AK and call with that range sometimes as well.

[eugmac]

ya obv it's bad when you only flat with your value range and 3bet only as a bluff. my plan is mixing in bluffs with Ax or whatever along with my std value range so he can't just 4bet own us every time. choosing good hands to 3bet bluff with is perhaps for another thread, as it's an area I'd like to improve in my game. I like the idea of doing it with Ax since we hold a blocker vs his value/continuing range. By this logic do we want to also do this with KTo rather than 87s since we're not expecting to see a flop very often?

[Icanhastreebet]

1. A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.
Would be nice to know his opening % but anyway. 3b: A2-A5s and A6s-A7s(A8,A9 no good cuz block folding range) until he sees us showdown, AA/KK like 80% of the time and less then this if he cbets like a million % this will add strength to all of our flop bluff raises we'll be making. Also 3bing AKo and flatting AKs,AQs,AJs. Probably 3b AQo and AJo if I feel like it as a bluff and if the fish comes along it's like w/e. Yes we are 3b bluffing a lot but it's still only like 3% of hands.

Call: Now this is super dependent on how often we can get away with calling 1 and just winning the pot on the turn and how often he's going to b/f and c/f also how often the fish is stacking off. But readless probably like 66+,78s+,J9s+.


2. You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.
Again this way too dependent on postflop factors to even have ANY idea what to do here. As a default something like 3b TT+ planning to ship over most 4bs, AJs+. Flat A8s-ATs,56s+,68s+,3b like 44-66 when dynamic is calling for it and ship over a 4b. Flat 77+(including like 10% KK+) and like suited broadways + KQ/KJ. Like this shit is so dependent on his opening % and cbet % and fold to donk % and fold to c/r % and 2barrel % and shit man.

3. You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.
3b like JJ+,AJ+ and probably bluff like never. Flat 22+,56s+,68s+,J8s+, all suited broadways, all suited Ax.

4. A 80/30 crazy person opens in MP for 6bb, he's running good and 200bb. You're BU.
If we are 200bb deep w/ him and he actually is crazy postflop we can flat well something like 22+,87s+,97s+,J8s+, suited broadways etc. Axs...I guess and 3b I guess like TT+,AJ+

5. Same as above, but you're SB and he's BU.
Just tighten up a bit ldo

[Icanhastreebet]

Yeah baudib's answer is close to how I'd play these spots.

1. Further questions for DoubleJ: when you call a nit's UTG raise with ATo, what do you expect will happen on an A-high flop? Do we expect this to be a profitable situation?

What is your plan for post-flop when you call with 87s?

2. What will happen the majority of the time vs a decent tag reg when you 3-bet him?

Why do people hate playing AMAZING SCs but will flat 22 in a situation like this? 87s hits 2pair or 8outs+ ~26% of the time and is going to make the regs life hell on a lot of flops now if we have hands like this in our range as long as we don't go batshit insane everytime we flop a gutshot.

[eugmac]

1. A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.
Would be nice to know his opening % but anyway. 3b: A2-A5s and A6s-A7s(A8,A9 no good cuz block folding range) until he sees us showdown, AA/KK like 80% of the time and less then this if he cbets like a million % this will add strength to all of our flop bluff raises we'll be making. Also 3bing AKo and flatting AKs,AQs,AJs. Probably 3b AQo and AJo if I feel like it as a bluff and if the fish comes along it's like w/e. Yes we are 3b bluffing a lot but it's still only like 3% of hands.

Call: Now this is super dependent on how often we can get away with calling 1 and just winning the pot on the turn and how often he's going to b/f and c/f also how often the fish is stacking off. But readless probably like 66+,78s+,J9s+.


2. You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.
Again this way too dependent on postflop factors to even have ANY idea what to do here. As a default something like 3b TT+ planning to ship over most 4bs, AJs+. Flat A8s-ATs,56s+,68s+,3b like 44-66 when dynamic is calling for it and ship over a 4b. Flat 77+(including like 10% KK+) and like suited broadways + KQ/KJ. Like this shit is so dependent on his opening % and cbet % and fold to donk % and fold to c/r % and 2barrel % and shit man.

3. You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.
3b like JJ+,AJ+ and probably bluff like never. Flat 22+,56s+,68s+,J8s+, all suited broadways, all suited Ax.

4. A 80/30 crazy person opens in MP for 6bb, he's running good and 200bb. You're BU.
If we are 200bb deep w/ him and he actually is crazy postflop we can flat well something like 22+,87s+,97s+,J8s+, suited broadways etc. Axs...I guess and 3b I guess like TT+,AJ+

5. Same as above, but you're SB and he's BU.
Just tighten up a bit ldo

it goes to show how much better at poker i have to get, but anyway.

for 1, what range did you assume UTG to have here? i tried to keep the questions general but i realize now that it makes quite a massive difference whether the bottom of his range is 99 or JJ.

[eugmac]

Why do people hate playing AMAZING SCs but will flat 22 in a situation like this? 87s hits 2pair or 8outs+ ~26% of the time and is going to make the regs life hell on a lot of flops now if we have hands like this in our range as long as we don't go batshit insane everytime we flop a gutshot.

because we're mindless setmining nits :/ and due to lack of post-flop confidence in me being able to steal pots away from nit playing a strong range.

appreciate you coming down to join us yaawn.

[baudib]

22 plays well better vs. this range whereas SC play better vs. weak ranges.


Unless you have a reliable read that the nit bet-folds AA I wouldn't try to semibluff him, so flopping 8-out draws is going to lose you money in the long-term.

[Icanhastreebet]

22 plays well better vs. this range whereas SC play better vs. weak ranges

Unless you have a reliable read that the nit bet-folds AA I wouldn't try to semibluff him, so flopping 8-out draws is going to lose you money in the long-term.

lol? You realize his range isn't just AA right and there's another player behind us?

[baudib]

lol? You realize his range isn't just AA right and there's another player behind us?

I mean, yeah. in general getting nits to fold overpairs/TPTK is probably not a good idea.

obviously you understand why you should 3-bet or fold 22 on the BTN vs. an aggro CO -- play suited connectors against him. this is the inverse of that situation.

trying to semibluff a nit at the top of his range and a station sounds like a really bad idea.

[ColdDecked]

3b: A2-A5s and A6s-A7s(A8,A9 no good cuz block folding range)

This is really interesting since I do it the other way around and would rather flat A2-A5s and 3b A6-A9s. Reason being A2-A5s have some straight making capabilities whereas A6-A9s don't, so intuitively I would like to keep spr larger.

Call: Now this is super dependent on how often we can get away with calling 1 and just winning the pot on the turn and how often he's going to b/f and c/f also how often the fish is stacking off. But readless probably like 66+,78s+,J9s+

What's the reasoning for not flatting 22-55 and SCs lower than 78s like 54s?

[DoubleJ]

1. Further questions for DoubleJ: What is your plan for post-flop when you call with 87s?

well, 87s hits 2pair or 8outs+ ~26% of the time and is going to make the regs life hell on a lot of flops now if ...... errrrrr.......

seriously - thanks everyone for all this feedback - outstanding!

will respond properly shortly; cooking a curry right now

[DoubleJ]

appreciate you coming down to join us yaawn.

btw - what is it, the yaawn?

[eugmac]

btw - what is it, the yaawn?

talking about mr icanhascheesebet

[Icanhastreebet]

What's the reasoning for not flatting 22-55 and SCs lower than 78s like 54s?

Well I wouldn't flat 22-55 just because they aren't going to win on their own like ever and you can pretty much NEVER continue(not that you can continue much more w/ 66-88 but I'm assuming villain isn't a SUPERNIT) unless you bink a set which might be fine depending on how bad the btn is. Once again I'm assuming he isn't a supernit for the scs but 67s and less are just getting too weak or w/e you can't play every SC or villain will just own you anyway. btw baudib you're obviously right about 22+ being better then SCs v a huge nit like some1 opening 99+,AK but if they are opening AQo+,77+,ATs+ and KQs there's a lot of hands we can make fold their on a lot of boards.

[Icanhastreebet]

But ofcourse all this preflop strategy shit v regs goes back to analyzing how they play while you are doing off the table studying. If you have a reg in your games 24tabling and he's on virtually every one of your tables it's going to be worth figuring out the EXACT ranges he's opening in every spot because then you'll know exactly what hands to play and how they are going to play out postflop and shit.

[DoubleJ]

1. Further questions for DoubleJ: when you call a nit's UTG raise with ATo, what do you expect will happen on an A-high flop? Do we expect this to be a profitable situation?

What is your plan for post-flop when you call with 87s?

2. What will happen the majority of the time vs a decent tag reg when you 3-bet him?

My honest answer here is "I don't really know...yet", and this was the main driver for posting.

i'm aware of this as a horrible gap in my "game", so the input from yous guyz is really appreciated. it's also something i plan to work on 1-to-1 with Carroters.

FWIW - i put the above ranges together after reading some articles on 'another site' [koff koff], so any similarities to Icanhastreebet's responses are purely coincidental.

The crux of the articles is [if i'm understanding it properly] "your flatting range in position will be based around implied odds hands like suited connectors, suited aces, pairs and suited Broadways"

i invite your comments on this

[eugmac]

yeah my point was, if you cold call pf without knowing exactly why you're doing it (as goes for anything you do in poker), you're bound to spew lots and lots of money postflop. if you call a supertight villain's UTG raise with 87s, since you're not going to flop strong made hands very often (contrast with 66 which flops a set about twice as often than you flop two-pair, trips, straight or a flush with a SC) you will have to be able to play your draws aggressively and be able to steal pots away from him in order for the PF call to be breakeven or +EV.

[DoubleJ]

yeah my point was, if you cold call pf without knowing exactly why you're doing it (as goes for anything you do in poker), you're bound to spew lots and lots of money postflop.

yepper...i'm with ya, i'm with ya

so, for a noobie-fish, is this a case of "leave this stuff alone. it's industrial-strength and you need to get good at x, y and z first"?

or is the spew-fest something like that big pot of coals that Kwai Chang Caine has to pick up?

[Zorkion]

Some common situations:

What range would you choose to cold-call with and why? What range might we 3-bet?

Let's say you have 100bb in all of the following situations. These are all full-ring by the way.

1. A nitty straight-forward player raises to 4bb UTG, you're in CO and BU is a loose passive who is likely to come along to see a flop. You are 100BB deep.

cc-22+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
3bet-ak.

with high pps, im not as worried about postflop vulnerability, even given bu's tendencies, and im looking to build a big pot, which seems easier multiway than hu vs a passive fish. ak is 3bet for value, and to iso the pot.

2. You're in the BB, and it's folded to BU, who is a solid winning TAGG. He opens for 3bb, SB folds. Again 100bb deep.

this one depends a little more on the stats, against opps who are positionally aware, and arent nitty tags,
cc-KK+,66-22,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
3bet-QQ-77,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,A2o+,K6o+,Q9o+

3. You're on the BU, MP1 unknown opens for 3bb with 80bb, MP2 who is a reg calls with 120bb, CO who is a feesh with 60bb calls.

cc-TT-22,AQs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo
3bet-JJ+,AKs,AKo

4. A 80/30 crazy person opens in MP for 6bb, he's running good and 200bb. You're BU.

also needs more reads, since my preflop range will depend a lot on his preflop tendencies
cc-KK-22,AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo+
3bet-KK+

5. Same as above, but you're SB and he's BU.

at the stakes i play, that kind of sizing is like a bright neon sign flashing
cc-ak, 22-QQ
3bet-AA,KK

6. A loose-passive open limps in MP. You're two off the button. Obviously there is no cold calling here, only limp behind or raise.

cc-J8s,T8s,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s
3bet-22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A5o+,K8o+,Q9o+

7. The same loose-passive limps UTG, 3 players limp behind and you're BU.

cc-99-22,A6s-A2s,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s
3bet-TT+,A7s+,KQs,ATo+


if anyone has comments on these rangings, and why my preflop game sucks, please let me know

[eugmac]

cc-22+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
3bet-ak.

with high pps, im not as worried about postflop vulnerability, even given bu's tendencies, and im looking to build a big pot, which seems easier multiway than hu vs a passive fish. ak is 3bet for value, and to iso the pot.

You can see the above discussion on the merits of cold-calling with PPs and SCs and how there are differing opinions here... it basically boils down to whether you think you can take down pots on a semi-bluff enough of the time vs a nit playing a strong range.

3betting here depends on opp's tendencies, if he'd open with JJ and wouldnt' fold it to the 3bet, then obv QQ+ become clear value-3bets.

this one depends a little more on the stats, against opps who are positionally aware, and arent nitty tags,
cc-KK+,66-22,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
3bet-QQ-77,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,A2o+,K6o+,Q9o+

I can see some problems here - what is your plan cold-calling with small PP vs a TAGG open raising on the BU? Do you think set-mining is profitable vs his range?

You seem to realize that villain's range is wide here, since you're 3bet bluffing him so much. What is your intent 3-betting 77-99? I'd rather do this here with 22-66 and call with 77-99.

edit for moar stuff:

I notice you're 3betting ATo+, but I think these are perfectly fine hands to call with, since villain is going to have lots of dominated aces in his range that he would fold to a 3bet.

cc-TT-22,AQs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo
3bet-JJ+,AKs,AKo

You can probably squeeze wider with like, AQ, KQ, AJ...