quick betsizing prelude - super-simple spot tiny bit deep

[daven]

a prelude to me writing about betsizing...


villain is 39-15, pretty bad, has seen me raise draws, and is a bit of a station. Note stack sizes. How big and why?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($26.65)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($39.26)
MP1 ($53.49)
MP2 ($42.30)
Hero (CO) ($45.64)
Button ($9.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4
UTG bets $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) A, 4, 2 (3 players)
UTG bets $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $xxx,

[rpm]

big. we are pretty damn deep on the flop with a huge hand against a villain who sucks. and it was only min-raised pre. we need to be able to get our stack into the pot. villain's calling range is basically "hands which will call a raise here and likely pay us at least another street" (Ax, flush draws, sets, aces up), and "hands which are pretty damn weak, which will struggle to catch up, and rarely pay us off when they do" (underpairs, missed broadways). so we clearly need to maximise our expectation vs the first range, seeing as we hardly lose value against the second one (by taking an aggressive line on the flop) because it rarely, if ever, gives us another street of $ anyway. also, i think the money we win on average when we raise it up and get another couple of streets from Ax or flush draws considerably outweighs the money we make on average by taking some other line designed to have the parts of his range continue which will rarely make a decent hand with which to pay us off anyway.

convoluted sentences aside,

given that villain is a very weak player who probably cant fold top pair or any 8+out draw, and may see us as aggressive if he's paid attention to history, i don't mind being completely un-balanced with our sizing here and just bumping it up to ~$4.75. bearing in mind that we can get the money in over:

1 street with an SPR of 1
2 streets with an SPR of 4
3 streets with an SPR of 13

(assuming pot-sized bets)

we need the pot to be at least ~$10 going onto the turn if we are to get the money in by the river without over-betting. i doubt this guy's calling range changes significantly vs any raise size between $2 total and $5 total. so the absolute minimum i make it here would be $4, and i may go as high as $5.25 or $5.5 if the table dynamic has been particularly aggro and gambooly (ie high avg. pot), or if i have some reason to believe this guy is tilted in general, or pissed off at me specifically. in this case, i think $4.5 or $4.75 would be my size.

and on the turn i'm planning to bet at least 4/5 pot on most cards when checked to, or raise slightly more than required to get the money on the river when called, if he leads into us.

edit: now i think about it, i prefer something like $5 or $5.25 due to the logic outlined above. lets get the money in.

[FourLetterWord]

$5 would be a nice number. It is going to set up nice for the turn and river to get our stacks in and not overshove. If station is going to call, he is going all the way and if not he is going to fold to that small bet. So go big and try to take it all. You are going to lose money more often than win trying to milk some value out of players like you have here.

[daviddem]

Call flop, shove turn.

Just kidding.

A pot sized raise would be to $4.85. Pot on the turn become $11.55. $8 on the turn -> $27.55. Villain has $25.91 left, which is a little less than a PSB on the river.

Alternatively, slightly overbet the pot on the flop to reduce sizing on further streets. Say raise to $6 -> $13.55. Get $9 in on the turn -> $31.55. Villain has $23.75 left, which makes for a nice size for a river bet.

Since villain is a station, he is likely to call with tons here: all aces, flush draws, straight draws.

On the other hand, raising 2/3rd pot on the flop would make it impossible to get all the money in by the river without overbetting the pot, which looks much scarier on the later streets.

One thing that worries me with this strategy, which I see advocated quite a bit on the BC by good players, is to make our sizing dependent on our hand strength. It may not matter against fish, but against an observant and thinking opp, it will soon be easy to distinguish when we cbet-bluff and when we are trying to get the stacks in.

[rpm]

@daviddem
don't take this wrong, but you seem to obsess over what is a PSB like that's some guiding factor from which we should adjust our decisions. i think the "do i need to be balanced in my hand range/sizing range vs this guy or should i seek to maximise my EV in a vacuum? what lines/sizing should i take as a result?" train of thought is far more important than figuring out what a PSB is and then going from there.

also, imo balance really does not matter very much at all at 25nl and lower against like 75-80% of the player pool, and even against some of the most profitable regs you can employ some pretty un-balanced hand ranges/bet sizes and not be too exploited. as long as you are somewhat self-aware and able to realise when you are doing something so relentlessly that even semi-competent regs can notice and adjust. on that note, in response to "it worries me that good players are giving advice to make bet size correlate with hand-strength", i don't think there are any good players who advocate making our bet-sizing directly correlate with our hand-strength against people who are going to be able to notice/exploit this. i know where you are coming from - you obviously understand how a lack of balance is inherently exploitable, i just think you overestimate how many players at 25nl and below are actually able to notice/properly exploit these tendencies, and underestimate how much value we can miss against the general player pool by being overly concerned with balance.

though i could well be wrong. don't take this post as personal criticism - merely my perspective.

sorry the slight thread derail, daven

[PKKFW]

Villain is a fishy station, has seen you raise draws and at 39/15 is likely playing alot of Ax and braodway type stuff along with pp's. I think he's calling with any Ax and any FD and quite possibly 88ish-KK(at least for one street). Anything else he may have we are unlikely to get much more out of him anyway.

We don't want to completely scare away draws and Ax type stuff so I'd be raising to about $4.50. If he calls that I reckon he likes his hand and is very likely to come along to the river.

That makes the pot $10.85 on turn. I'd go for $9.50 here. He'd likely call with Ax and FD stuff and depending on board texture and exactly how fishy/stationary he is he might continue with his pp's but it's getting more unlikely.

That makes the pot $29.85 on the river and leaves Villain $24.76. I reckon he'd call a river shove with anything he called the turn with barring a busted FD so we ship it in.

[daviddem]

@ rpm, not really obsessed with how much a PSR is, but I usually take it as a reference starting point to size a raise. Far too many people (not aiming at you) take the bet size of their opp as the reference and make it 3 or 4 times to make it a "standard" raise, but this is wrong of course , especially when it comes to charging the right amount to drawing hands. Of course stack sizes and SPR matter more when trying to figure out how to put all the money in the pot by the river, like here.

I agree that it is not usually necessary to care about giving away to much info at micro stakes.

[Hoopy]

Something like 4.5/10/ship if you have an aggro image and he can make big calls with Ax on most cards.

[lolpwnt]

call and raise the turn makes it easier to get in stacks (if he bets turn) and makes it more likely that he has a stack off hand anyway when he bets two streets.

raising flop makes it more difficult to get in stacks as we have to make it like 5 or 6 on the flop which seems pretty massive if we dont want to overbet any streets that is.

i guess if he's so bad that he calls Ax broadway overbets on river anyway then it doesnt really matter.

[d0zer]

call and raise the turn makes it easier to get in stacks (if he bets turn) and makes it more likely that he has a stack off hand anyway when he bets two streets.

raising flop makes it more difficult to get in stacks as we have to make it like 5 or 6 on the flop which seems pretty massive if we dont want to overbet any streets that is.

You're more worried about raising big on this flop than you are a spade or 3 or 5 falling on the turn which shows you still have that fish mindset of "zomg don't wanna scare him off".

calling the flop vs this superfish this deep is a big mistake.

[lolpwnt]

You're more worried about raising big on this flop than you are a spade or 3 or 5 falling on the turn which shows you still have that fish mindset of "zomg don't wanna scare him off".

calling the flop vs this superfish this deep is a big mistake.

Im not worried about scaring him off. As i said near the end of the post if he's so dumb that it doesnt matter what we do then just try to get it in if that includes and over bet river shove or a stupidly massive flop raise then whatever.

there is'nt much point of this thread if the guy is loltopairtard, bet sizing doesnt really matter at all if we can get it in by river.


just saying its easier to play for stacks if you raise turn if you dont want to overbet any street.

[d0zer]

Im not worried about scaring him off. As i said near the end of the post if he's so dumb that it doesnt matter what we do then just try to get it in if that includes and over bet river shove or a stupidly massive flop raise then whatever.

there is'nt much point of this thread if the guy is loltopairtard, bet sizing doesnt really matter at all if we can get it in by river.


just saying its easier to play for stacks if you raise turn if you dont want to overbet any street.

nothing stupid about a massive flop raise. a lot stupid with calling the flop. it matters what we do. it matters how we size our bets

[lolpwnt]

ok bra, internet is a serious business. leave you to it

[d0zer]

your butthurt only slows down your progress to $500

[Carroters]

ok bra, internet is a serious business. leave you to it

"Ego check please"

*Checking Ego, please wait, one moment*

"K thanks Ego check machine"

*Ego check results show you need to be more objective and less personal in your approach to learning pokars or you wont win as much monies*

"Cool thanks bra"

[Alexos]

Given reads, prob 4.5-5$.

[supa]

Thread shows me how much I really need to study up on spr. And bet sizing in general I guess.

*edit* How does sizing change here if villain has less fishy stats.

Sorry if that's a derail.

[celtic123]

not read anything above, I bet $2.50-$2.85 with view to all by the ribber.

[Nekrogovner]

*edit* How does sizing change here if villain has less fishy stats.

In that case villain doesn't limp and makes our job easier.

[supa]

I said less fishy.

[thelorax]

never flatting flop here, id make it 4.99-5.35 to set us up to get stacks in comfortably over 3.
also, ive noticed people spazz more often here at these stakes when you make it bigger on the flop as opposed to what many other (badish players) do and just 3x the cbet.

[daven]

call and raise the turn makes it easier to get in stacks (if he bets turn) and makes it more likely that he has a stack off hand anyway when he bets two streets.

raising flop makes it more difficult to get in stacks as we have to make it like 5 or 6 on the flop which seems pretty massive if we dont want to overbet any streets that is.

i guess if he's so bad that he calls Ax broadway overbets on river anyway then it doesnt really matter.

i chose the hand the most glaringly fucking obvious raise flop hand i could find and someone wants to call flop. I give up. Well, i would give up. Except that everyone else is speaking a lot of sense in this thread.

just saying its easier to play for stacks if you raise turn if you dont want to overbet any street.

i hope this is a level

"Ego check please"

*Checking Ego, please wait, one moment*

"K thanks Ego check machine"

*Ego check results show you need to be more objective and less personal in your approach to learning pokars or you wont win as much monies*

"Cool thanks bra"

gold bro

[kineFlino]

Tell me i'm a good person
my favorite set of numbers 187209458340011

[baudib]

Would never flat here, if he's seen you raising draws I'd make it $5.50-$6.

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