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 reviewing regs' play
this is something i like to do for a number of reasons:
1 - i learn to handread better/better determine ranges based on the certain individual actions/series of actions of my most common opponents
2 - i think doing this stuff is the best way to learn about how poker actually works - where the winners' money comes from. i don't yet know this secret. but i think i'm onto the scent. doing this kind of study of our opponents strategies (and devising our own strategies, like i tried to do in a recent thread called something like "forming ranges around exploitive play) helps us learn to play our ranges in a fashion which makes us the most money we can. that's how we win. basically, it seems that poker strategy can be grossly (but effectively) overly-simplified into two goals.
- figuring out what your opponents strategy is
- figuring out what your preferred strategy is as a result.
so i think that illustrates the utility of doing stuff like this.
so with that bullshit aside, here's some notes i took on a reg recently from my database, and the resultant strategical implications i was able draw from what i observed. some bleedingly obvious and "ldo", other perhaps more speculative. before i write it out, i should note that sometimes in my notes i write down what he actually did in certain hands, like (made up read):
"3x AQo in CO, no CB A75r vs BB caller"
and if i see something which i consider to be part of a larger trend, i group it into a single note, like:
"- often waives CB's w/TP or overpair"
because then the note thing is more decipherable. and i don't have to read shortened HH's in my notes to gain the info i am looking for about the player. so if you see a general read like that, you'll just have to trust me on it
now,
i have about 1.4k hands on him. i'll start with just a general overview of some of the most relevant stats (as best i know) grouped loosely along the lines of how i group them on my hud (if i use the particular stat, i obviously don't use them all)
Preflop General
-VPIP: 9.02%
-PFR: 5.72%
-PF3B: 1.1%
-PF4B: 3.33% (2/60, had the nuts at least once)
so we already know that he is a very, very tight player.
Blind Play
-ATS: 19%
-fold SBTS: 97%
-fold BBTS: 91%
-3bet as resteal from SB: 0%
-3bet as resteal from BB: 0%
his ATS shows that he is positionally aware to a degree, though not stealing blinds as often as he could be. he also doesn't seem to have a concept of defending blinds.
Postflop
Cbet Flop: 19.23%
Fold to Flop CBet: 69.23%
so here we see that he has an incredibly low flop CBet, which is a tendency explained by some of the hands he has shown down in my database, and is reflected in my notes on him.
Notes: (ripped straight from Pokerstars)
50nl FR 04-11
- 4x opens in all positions
- 4b ship AA vs 15bb 3b, 100 effectives
- OL/C 22-88 UTG
- limp A6s,44,54s behind on BU
- OC 88. 99,A8s in SB
- flat JJ OOSB to BU min open
- flat my SB ATS w/KJs, Ch back J86t
- often waives CB's w/TP or overpair
- typically sizes bets pretty small post
- possibly tries to vbet thin/valuebluffs weird spots
- doesn't typically play draws aggressively, especially OOP
- perhaps kind of stationy w/middle pairs to small bet sizes postflop (ie pocket pairs with overcards on board)
Strategic Implications:
- his postflop betting range is very strong in almost all situations unless sizing is really weird (because he seems to do stupid confused bets, typically with a small sizing with hands in "nothing worse calls, nothing better folds" situations). so basically, his "agressive" ranges are incredibly unbalanced and exploitable, because we know if he is being aggressive, we need the nuts to continue (and we could further develop this read by noting what he does with certain hands ie how many streets/what sizes he typically bets with TPTK, how he plays sets/TPTK hands OOP on flops)
- we can iso him like crazy when he limps in from EP or MP because his range is so easily defined and largely weak. he definitely limp/calls 22-99. and maybe some middle suited connectors. the point is he very rarely connects with Axx, Kxx, or Qxx. so we can iso him and Cbet a looooot of flops, and his range is so well-defined we aren't prone to making big mistakes (if he starts being aggressive, GTFO without the nuts).
we can also barrel turn scare cards a lot because his range never hits them.
ie he limp/calls our LP iso with something like {22-99, maybe QJs-76s}. flop comes K52r. we cbet, he calls. ANY card over a 9 we can barrel profitably on the turn, which is almost half the deck. we can do this because his ranges are so well-defined, and thus easy to play against.
- he CBets a very small %. this means we get free turn cards wayyyy more often, which allows us to realise the equity of our draws MORE than average (because draws equity is highly variable across streets, most draws lose 1/2 their equity against "made" hands when they miss the turn). so we could call his opens (very tight range) with a few more
"drawing" hands like suited connectors, Axs (which probably arent profitable to call with heads up against decent opponents) because he will allow us to realise the postflop value of these hands more than most players.
- folds his blinds an absolute ton. we can open hugely exploitable ranges because he doesn't seem to adjust, and he's so readable postflop, that we will just be crushing him if he does try to adjust (by the way he has a lotttttt of adjusting to do out of the blinds in order to draw closer to unexploitability). i'd open literally any two cards on the BU with him in the blinds, if the other blind folds >85% to steals.
- because he seems to be shit-scared of playing AA postflop, and he likes to just 4b jam with it (which is retarded. this is a huge overbet, and his range is about as defined as one can be when he does it), we could probably 3b/fold KK? because he will certainly flat with worse pairs that he opens, and he will just play terribly with AA and get no value. maybe we shouldn't be 3betting a hand we don't want to felt though?
i'm sure there's a million more points to draw from that info. i'm relatively new to this. and this guy is an easier target because he plays so predictably and terribly. anyway, hope this helps some of you people out there in some way. and i recommend doing this with some of your opponents in your own time as a great way to get better at poker.
lemme know if some of the abbreviations in the stats/reads are unclear.
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Originally Posted by rpm
