donk flop 20% over 178

[PKKFW]

OTF I'd be raising for no other reason than the flush draw out there. Make it unprofitable for him to draw to that. As others have said, if he shoved I'd be calling and if he has hit the set lucky him.

Personally I like the bet ott. It represents the A, makes it look like you've floated his donk bet and hit lucky ott and doesn't give him a free card to draw to a flush or straight. His c/c has me thinking he has a draw or possibly some Tx combo.

As for the river, I'm fine with checking but from what little we know of his play I'm putting him on some non A Tx single pair combo like JT or KT, possibly with a busted FD backing it up or possibly JJ-QQ(unlikely though). I'm thinking KK+ and probably AK would have re-raised preflop. I'm thinking with 20% donk bet he probably donks whenever he hits top pair or has an over pair. He slowed down when the A hit and I'm guessing AT would have c/r us ott. So I'd be happy to shove the river as well but that's just me and I don't know if it would be +EV.

[scott_owen]

Personally I like the bet ott. It represents the A, makes it look like you've floated his donk bet and hit lucky ott and doesn't give him a free card to draw to a flush or straight. His c/c has me thinking he has a draw or possibly some Tx combo.

Not to say that its a bad idea to bet the turn.. but i dont think that the fact that it reps the A is a good thing, or a reason to do it.

Villain is 39/2 at 2NL so is probably not concidering the possibility of what his opponent has. But in the event of a villain that does think then by repping the A your telling him to fold all mid pairs because he's beaten. His calling range becomes flush draws and Ax. Obviously we need to price out the draws but i still want to get value out of all his junky 1 pair hands. Unfortunately we probably cant get value because its too real a possibility that this player has Ax so we must slow down.

point is, last thing i want here is to convince all the 10x hands that i have an ace and see them all fold, meanwhile any hand that has an ace calls. Thats a really bad reason to bet.

In the context of this hand we should raise the flop, this villain gives us value from a massive range of hands, mid pp, flush draws, gutshot draws, 10x, maybe 7x, JJ/QQ. your only behind sets, and i doubt they bet the flop in this way.