So a downswing doesn't exist because it's in the past. I can't help thinking this logic is fatally flawed.

I see upswings and downswings like the tides. There's average sea level, then there's high tide and low tide. But the average always remains the same.

We're nearly always either upswinging or downswinging, the tide is either coming in or out. Rarely are we actually balanced with probability over a small sample. Sometimes the downswing lasts longer than we would hope, that's ok because if we play enough hands, then we'll enjoy an upswing that will last longer than it should.

The incoming tide exists, even when the tide is out.