44 on the river 10NL

[lombracremisi]

So a little background on this hand and my play lately. I've started to play without a HUD on UB (no deposit bonus) in order to work on my hand reading and not rely on HUD stats because I want to start playing live in the next few months, hopefully. Consequently I've not got this hand saved so it's by memory (from about 10 minutes ago).

Reads on villain are that he's pretty passive pre with his calling range and is a little looser than a TAG so far (although I may be perceiving typical TAG play to be more nitty than it actually is), but not super loose by any means. I haven't been able to see his hands go to showdown yet. He also tends to call down c-bets a lot. Other than that I don't have a lot to go on, I only have about 15-20 hands at the table with him. Additionally MP1 is pretty weak-tight, let's you know when he's got it.

Villain (10.00)
MP1 (about 10.00)
Hero (9.73)

Hero has
Pre-Flop: 2 folds, MP1 bets .30, 2 folds, Hero calls 0.30, 2 folds, Villain (BB) calls 0.2.

Flop: (0.95)
Villain checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets 0.50, Villain calls, MP1 folds

Turn: (1.95)
Villain Checks, Hero Checks

I checked here at the time thinking since Villain is a station on the flop he has plenty of queens to beat me, but wasn't too terribly worried about the flush. In retrospect I think betting here may have been more in order, both because Villain probably would have check-raised his flush if he checked through with it and Hero could have folded easy. Villain also probably would have at least called the queen if not check-raised, but I'm bad at this so I don't know.

River (1.95)
Villain bets 1.25, Hero?...

[try_2_improve]

So many things to think about...You say he calls cbets alot but how often does he fire when checked back to or even more specifically after he calls a cbet and then is checked back to...and! on what kind of boards/range? (which by the way I dont mind your turn check at all.On the turn your hand is just no good usually with the little bit of info u have on him imo after* he calls that board.You beat what 2s or 3s? However...This kind of player you described sounds like hes kinda cluessless. And so I think if you did wanna bet say a fourth of pot on turn to keep him honest on river, I think its ok. He just sounds like hes not going to understand what your doing and isnt gonna have enough info/aggressiveness to fire away at you with smaller pair/bluff on river if he doesnt have flush.And probably isnt smart/aggressive enough to check raise you with a flush draw.But i definately wouldnt bet more then a third of pot on turn.Youll generally be giving money away imo...Also how fast did you check turn and how fast did he bet?
Now it seems contradicting but I think its a pretty easy fold with your 4's if yo0u wouldnt have spiked the set. Now that you have this board just isnt that dangerous.Especially since you for whatever reason you think he doesnt have flush
I call here. You cant expect a better spot to call against this type of opp on this type of board for if anything... valuable information/making history with him...and i expect to see a queen if I had to pick....hes got tons of j/q,qk, aq combos jsut to start to name a few ranges that well covers his flush ranges...
I just seen no one replied yet to this so I thought id give you my thoughts.You will come to the best decision more then anyone because you was in the hand with him obv. Hope I helped even if just a little

[Donachello]

raise to 4.

[lombracremisi]

Thanks for the reply, I agree there's a lot to think about and I know I often miss things to consider, hence the posting of the hand. I would fold on pretty much any river besides the 4 since I think I'm behind most of the time, but I spiked my set here on the end, hence the difficulty and looking for some assistance in thinking through this hand.

Also I'm not saying he does or doesn't have the flush, I'm not sure in this spot. Just looking for some other thoughts to try and work through this hand in a vacuum.

[bikes]

4 might be slightly too much but def no more than $4. raise/fold to a jam

[EasyPoker]

Not that I disagree with the previous posters, but what's the rationale for $4?

[try_2_improve]

Not that I do at all either but does raising for thin value outweigh him calling with a worse hand(queen) better hand (flush) or being re-raised (3 bet)? Just seems like its going to be a sick spot possibly folding what $5 into $15 pot with a set here.Again not that I disagree

[Smith]

2xish what's in the pot
3xish what was bet

Raise enough to get called by worse, and not putting in too much when getting jammed on. I'm guessing raising too much, and you will tighten up what hands call. Raising too much, and getting jammed on = hating life also.

[EasyPoker]

2xish what's in the pot
3xish what was bet

Raise enough to get called by worse, and not putting in too much when getting jammed on. I'm guessing raising too much, and you will tighten up what hands call. Raising too much, and getting jammed on = hating life also.

This is captain obvious stuff so slap yourself.

I'm asking what was the thought process behind thinking that $4 was the maximum they would call, i.e. why is this enough not to get called by worse, and why is it not too much. My guess is that Bikes and DC will say that it was just a guesstimate, I just want this confirmed, is all.

[Donachello]

As with every betsize I make it is just a number that I feel is "good" though as bikes said it might be a little bit on the large side. 3.50 is probably also acceptable and potentially more optimal as we can expect to have to fold this some % of the time when he clearly demonstrates having a club flush by 3bet shoving on us. Additionally 3.50 might get more calls from Qx but I don't know so I picked a larger number that maximizes value when called only.

[Smith]

YouTube - How to bitch slap yourself

[EasyPoker]

Cheers DC, and well done Smith for taking what I said with the appropriate good humour.

[surviva316]

flop seems a tad thin just because a lot has to go right just for it to be like a couple pennies better in equity than checking. among some of the most reasons are:

1) weaktight villain has to pretty much always fold 55-77

2) fish villain has to never raise this flop with worse

also, your sizing almost gives like KcJx odds to call against our hand.

[lolshaniatalkatmicros] also checking's way better for shania [/lolshaniatalkatmicros]

i certainly don't think it's BAD, i just have a slight preference for checking

[daven]

pre-flop is good, flop stab seems too small - how big would you be betting 89s? how about 88? Stab $0.75 or not at all. turn check behind is good - if he's a station he's not folding better hands ever and a lot of his worse hands now have substantial equity against you. River raise to $3.3, obviously fold to a 3b shove vs a weak type.