AA hand @ 25NL FR

[!Luck]

H1: I have less than 10 hands on the guy and thus no HUD. He bought in full. That's my only read that he is more likely to be reggy. The reason for my 5x pre is the SB was a huge fish, calling almost anything. My std reg calling range for this guy is AQ+ (QKs?) 22-QQ (Most regs 3bet KK+). On the flop he has no flush draws, due to my A. Now turn, is the most standard bet ever. However, if I am raised, his range becomes 99,QQ,22 and I need to fold. So this question is more about bet sizing. I think 6 works well here as it leave less than PSB behind on turn. So my plan here is to b/f 6. Agree disagree?



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($15.81)
CO ($9.65)
Button ($9.46)
SB ($52.39)
BB ($25)
UTG ($10)
Hero (UTG+1) ($27.87)
MP1 ($7.81)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.25, 3 folds, SB calls $1.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 2, 9, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold

Turn: ($10) 5 (2 players)
Hero ?

[caddie444]

you can bet slightly more than $6, $7-8 is good since you said he has no FD and is probably not folding anything he calls a flop bet with, plus if a club hits the river he might have a harder time calling a shove if he is getting worse pot odds if you only bet $6

b\f is the right plan though good job

[Openside]

...SB was a huge fish, calling almost anything.

Is there not a good chance that villain has come to the same conclusion, giving him implied odds to play suited connectors etc?
I don't hate b/f'ing the turn. We c/f a non-A river if he comes along?

[caddie444]

We c/f a non-A river if he comes along?

He has more combos of Qx (that will likely call a shove on blank rivers) than sets so c/f'ing is not optimal

[philly and the phanatics]

i agree with caddie betting 7.5 > betting 6...also i would assume random regs are going to be calling much wider than that preflop, i would def include suited connectors, and some regs will still call with KQo/KJo/ATo and the like, you raised in EP, implieds are usually higher here. IDK i just think you are going to be costing yourself a lot of money just assuming that a ton of hands aren't in his range, especially when as you said there was a whale in the SB, why wouldnt he want to play IP vs a fish with a high implied hand (not that KQo/KJo/ATo are high implied odds hands but the suited connectors and suited aces surely are)?

sorry if this made no sense im blazed right now

[philly and the phanatics]

also @ openside i would check/eval river leaning towards call. It sucks that we do not know the guy but i would think he is gonna have some JTs/clubs that bricked (obviously less than normal because we have the Ac) and sometimes he will think his AQ/KQ is good and try to bet for value. If we check we are going to be getting pretty good odds on any bet because half our stack will be in the pot. Also with the whale in the blinds he could have something like KK here.

[philly and the phanatics]

meh openside could be right shoving might be best, i just figured that check/calling would let him bluff off some of his missed draws but meh

[!Luck]

Philly,

He can't realize the SB is a whale since he just came to the table.

-!luck

[philly and the phanatics]

1st he can still have a bunch of implied odds hands regardless of whether or not the sb is a whale because you are opening from EP...

2nd after 10 hands you should be able to tell if someone is a huge whale


- philly

[Mr. Bucket]

First of all OP said it was < 10 hands.

Second of all I think that going from "he bought in full" to "i'm putting 0 sc in his range" is a bit of a stretch. a weighted range seems much more appropriate

[bikes]

i think your reads that say he has no FD are just abso absurd. bet $7, ship every river but a Q

[bikes]

if you didn't have the Ac i'd probably c/c every non club river except a Q and c/f all club rivers.

[!Luck]

Bikes,

Do you disagree with the b/f 6, or seven as you advise?

-!luck

[rong]

Villain can still know sb is a fish. Just because you don't have hand on him doesn't mean he doesn't have hands on fish.

[bikes]

b/f'ing here against an unknown makes me want to puke but i'd probably do it considering he called with the fish still left to act.

[!Luck]

Thanks all. Over the 100k+ hands I played at 25nl (beat, I know), when a full stacker raises your turn bet, over pairs are rarely good. Poker isn't about systems, but I do see patterns. And the turn raise is so strong. Anyways, I bet 6 he CiB, I folded. My plan was to shove or bet most rivers.

!luck

[EasyPoker]

On the flop he has no flush draws, due to my A.

Could you explain this please?