Interesting AA line 3-bet pot

[griffey24]

Betting turn is somewhat close but if I do bet I'm c/f the shit out of that river.

I can't begin to comprehend this. I mean... it's five handed. Yes lukie called an utg open and then called a squeeze, but depending on his fold to 3bet he can have a ton of pairs here. Not to mention some non-zero % of his very big hands 4betting after the squeeze.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I can't begin to comprehend this. I mean... it's five handed. Yes lukie called an utg open and then called a squeeze, but depending on his fold to 3bet he can have a ton of pairs here. Not to mention some non-zero % of his very big hands 4betting after the squeeze.

Put lukie on a range and we'll see where we disagree.

Here's mine:

preflop 99+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)

Calling flop bet: 99+

Calling turn barrel: 99+ (99 is now a set)

Calling river shove: Maybe QQ, KK+, sets

[griffey24]

Put lukie on a range and we'll see where we disagree.

Here's mine:

preflop 99+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)

Calling flop bet: 99+

Calling turn barrel: 99+ (99 is now a set)

Calling river shove: Maybe QQ, KK+, sets

I think depending on villain, there will certainly be some that are calling 55+ thinking "man he's squeezing utg open and my call, he could be pretty strong here I should set hunt".

Then 55+ gets to flop, and see's a boat "Well I can't fold now, I'll peel", and I also think people peel here with AK/AQ on the flop pretty often.

Turn is probably a big question mark depending on villain, and will make a big difference in how we view this hand. I agree that 99+ continues again, but given what I perceive his flop calling range to be I think this is still a bet since I think his continuing range is wider to a turn bet here than bet/ck/bet line.

River I think a lot of that garbage can find a fold, I don't mind the c/f here given the run-out.

Preflop: 55+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)

Flop: 55-88, AQ, AK (all around 75%), 99+
56 combos of 55-88, AQ, AK, if 75% continue thats 42 combos
18 combos of 99-JJ
13 combos of QQ-AA (50% discount due to preflop, so 6.5 combos)
24.5 combos of 99-AA

Turn: 55-88 (40%? - think the type of person that peels flop with these hands is more likely to be the type to continue again), AQ/AK (15%?), 99+
All 21.5 combos of 99-AA continue on turn 9 (3 less combos of 99 now)
He calls with TT, JJ that we beat - 6 combos
We now lose to 6 combos of KK-AA, chop 0.5 QQ combo, lose to 3 combos of 99 - losing to 9 combos
Of the total 42 combos of 55-88, AQ/AK need him to call at least 3 combos for a profitable turn bet (7% of the time, this seems very reasonable)

River: T
-big disaster card, not enough of the above continuing 55-88,AQ/AK hands will call to warrant betting when we only really beat JJ of his legit calling range



River: c/f

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I think depending on villain, there will certainly be some that are calling 55+ thinking "man he's squeezing utg open and my call, he could be pretty strong here I should set hunt".

Then 55+ gets to flop, and see's a boat "Well I can't fold now, I'll peel", and I also think people peel here with AK/AQ on the flop pretty often.

Turn is probably a big question mark depending on villain, and will make a big difference in how we view this hand. I agree that 99+ continues again, but given what I perceive his flop calling range to be I think this is still a bet since I think his continuing range is wider to a turn bet here than bet/ck/bet line.

River I think a lot of that garbage can find a fold, I don't mind the c/f here given the run-out.

Preflop: 55+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)

Flop: 55-88, AQ, AK (all around 75%), 99+
56 combos of 55-88, AQ, AK, if 75% continue thats 42 combos
18 combos of 99-JJ
13 combos of QQ-AA (50% discount due to preflop, so 6.5 combos)
24.5 combos of 99-AA

Turn: 55-88 (40%? - think the type of person that peels flop with these hands is more likely to be the type to continue again), AQ/AK (15%?), 99+
All 21.5 combos of 99-AA continue on turn 9 (3 less combos of 99 now)
He calls with TT, JJ that we beat - 6 combos
We now lose to 6 combos of KK-AA, chop 0.5 QQ combo, lose to 3 combos of 99 - losing to 9 combos
Of the total 42 combos of 55-88, AQ/AK need him to call at least 3 combos for a profitable turn bet (7% of the time, this seems very reasonable)

River: T
-big disaster card, not enough of the above continuing 55-88,AQ/AK hands will call to warrant betting when we only really beat JJ of his legit calling range



River: c/f

Alright, makes sense. I'd be interested in how many players call 55-88 pre and then continue with them on two barrels, I think it's likely a lot will not. Then again, this is 1/2 so I'm not sure how the regs play.

[griffey24]

Don't you think at higher stakes, ppl in lukie's spot will be even more likely to be floaty with lower pairs/AQ/AK because squeezers will have an even wider range?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Don't you think at higher stakes, ppl in lukie's spot will be even more likely to be floaty with lower pairs/AQ/AK because squeezers will have an even wider range?

Higher stakes doesn't mean that everyone is more aggressive. Some players are, then there's a lot players who play very solid tagg who aren't just gonna randomly call 66 preflop here ever. And at high stakes the CO in this situation will call big pairs here often, so I'm not sure if many good players are going to squeeze this spot very often unless they know the CO calls wide.