AKo vs 2 -- line check please

[Shotglass]

I like how you put nit and fish in the HH, makes it easier to read.

You could fold AKo to the nit's 3-bet oop. You're at the bottom of his range. Against a tag or lag, 4-betting is good.

Why do you think the nit can't have AA or KK? I think calling there otf vs the nit is best, and the fish there only makes it better, because the nit probably has AK and QQ+, and the only hand you beat is QQ and it'll fold to a shove.

I was thinking that if I bricked the flop then I'd get out on the flop, but that the flat would allow me to see the flop cheap and if I 4bet into him then he'd fold like he did a couple hands ago.

My thinking on the flop was that there were 3 A's & 3 K's out there PF, but once the flop came that it was 33% less likely for him to have either one in his hand and between 60 to 75% less likely for him to have pocket AA or KK.
So i said thanks for the extra 33% and shoved thinking that it's a split or he's got a set and might fold thinking I had a better set.

I'm not sure if I applied those %'s correctly, if the 60 - 75% is accurate or if I should have been thinking that way at all.

[couriermike]

My thinking on the flop was that there were 3 A's & 3 K's out there PF, but once the flop came that it was 33% less likely for him to have either one in his hand and between 60 to 75% less likely for him to have pocket AA or KK.
So i said thanks for the extra 33% and shoved thinking that it's a split or he's got a set and might fold thinking I had a better set.

I'm not sure if I applied those %'s correctly, if the 60 - 75% is accurate or if I should have been thinking that way at all.

I see what you're saying. There's very few premium hand combos for him to have, especially on that flop. However, if he can only call the shove with a chop or better, no matter how few hand combos there are, then it's not good.

[Shotglass]

However, if he can only call the shove with a chop or better, no matter how few hand combos there are, then it's not good.

I think I see what you're saying. It'd probably been safer to either fold or 4bet pre to try to take it there. And on the flop to try to get to the showdown cheaply, because there's a small chance (5 - 10%) that he doesn't have the set that he's repping.

I hope that I understood everyone's advice correctly in that there definately was a better way to play this.

On a different note: If he shows AQo, or some thing like that, should I take that as someone who is trying to adjust to my playing or just another case of someone not dropping TPGK?