turn KK + AK flop straight

[Razvan729]

like i said i came back to 2nl to train my self in range assighing and EV and equity math, these are a couple spots in which i would like your experience.

H1:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($2.16)
Button ($2)
SB ($1.99)
BB ($0.80)
Hero (UTG) ($2)
UTG+1 ($1.88)
MP1 ($2.29)
MP2 ($1.84)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
Hero bets $0.08, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.08, 1 fold, Button calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.27) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $0.19, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.38, Hero calls $0.19

Turn: ($1.03) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.54 (All-In)


villain is 12/3 with 25AFq over 42 hands, seen at SD on AKo turn straight and QQ turn set, slowplayed cause was flushed flop.

on flop his reraise range is 22,44,88, 99, TT, JJ .... QQ+ would have 3bet pre, i have seen him doing it agains any pos opening.

against that range without stoving in play i figured i am 60-70% favourite: 18 overpairs combos and 9 set combos.

turn 9 gives his range another set and now i only beat TT, JJ. i have 12 combos overpairs and 12 set combos, that my question is: does his turn shove range include also overpairs? cause if it does then my call would be EV+.

so, flop ok as played or i should have shoved? turn call or fold?is the range for flop/turn ok? is right the way i analyzed the hand?


H2:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($2.09)
MP3 ($5.34)
CO ($4.97)
Button ($3.07)
SB ($3.34)
BB ($2.05)
UTG ($2.05)
Hero (UTG+1) ($2.76)
MP1 ($5)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with ,
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, CO calls $0.08, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.19) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, CO calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.47) (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, CO calls $0.22

River: ($0.91) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.53 (All-In)

here villain is 60/3 with 57 AFq over 30 hands so not much.

pretty hard to put him on a range pre.
on flop there are a lot combos that beat me: AJ, KQ,KT,QT,J9, QQ,TT but also a lot of draw and one pair combos that i beat and get value from like: AQ,AT,A2s-A9s, K2s-K9s,KJ, QJ,Q9,JJ,JT,99

turn doesnt change much except give him another 2 pair combo (K6), so i bet again to get value from the same combos, but i bet less cause is a scary board for me i dont want to invest much.

river i am 90% its a fold, he has to many 2pair, full combos in his range i think it doesnt bluff enough to be a +EV call, so i say its a fold.

hand analyze ok? line ok? ranges? what it the best way to play this hand?

[philly and the phanatics]

h1 -

Board: 8d 4s 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.162% 56.16% 00.00% 11676 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 43.838% 43.84% 00.00% 9114 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 88, 44, 22 }

so without even giving him 99/TT you can go ahead and get it in on the flop. If he is not raising QQ-JJ (very possible, but you had all overpairs in his range) then this is obviously a fold as you are drawing to a 2 outer. He has 22/44/88 here a lot.

hand 2-

I like your analysis for the most part, he is going to have a ton of Kx offsuited hands as well so you have to bet/fold that river imo for like .5 and bet a little more on the turn, like .30. But yea as played rivers definitely a fold....also if he flopped a straight please dont include that in future titles of your threads.

[Razvan729]

H1: i put overpairs in his reraise flop range cause i my experience, not much but over 150k hands, 90% of opps will reraise there an overpair . so i dont know exactly how this particular villain plays his sets/overpairs, my analyze is based from what i played so far, might be wrong, this why i ask for the best line in both hands from players much more better and experinced then me.

H2: i really dont know what he had, the straight in title is because flop give pretty big straight chances to opp. i will however take that away in my future posts.

Q river scared the shit out of me, and my thinking was like this: if i bet and i get reraised is a deff fold and lose my bet without SD, if i check i will call a bet up to 2/3-3/4 pot and a SD where i might have a chance to be good. when he went all in i thought he either has the nuts or is a god damn bluff, had 2.33 $ left behind so i had to be good about 40% of time to be even and i had no reads that he bluffs there so much to call.

[philly and the phanatics]

H2: i really dont know what he had, the straight in title is because flop give pretty big straight chances to opp. i will however take that away in my future posts.

Q river scared the shit out of me, and my thinking was like this: if i bet and i get reraised is a deff fold and lose my bet without SD, if i check i will call a bet up to 2/3-3/4 pot and a SD where i might have a chance to be good. when he went all in i thought he either has the nuts or is a god damn bluff, had 2.33 $ left behind so i had to be good about 40% of time to be even and i had no reads that he bluffs there so much to call.

yea in h2, he is a passive player so he is going to check back a ton of Kx that you are ahead of and likely only betting hands that are ahead of you...id definitely bet/fold for .5.....if he shoves over your .5 bet then you will need ~33% equity and vs a range of sets/queens/straights you are very unlikely to have that much equity (i say sets/straights cause he's passive as fuck and may be "slow playing" them here)

[!Luck]

H1: He is never ever reraise 99-JJ.

[thelorax]

you can fold both unless in H1 your sure his FLOP range has 99-JJ in it.

[Razvan729]

so H1, unlless i am 100% sure he reraises 99-JJ, its a flop fold instant, not even calling cause i am drawing to 2 outs, and in this case also is AA. but playing like this, doesnt make me very exploitable , i mean a good player will see i fold overpairs to a flop minraise and will use it against me?

or most times only sets minraise here and rarely overpairs? cause if last sentence is right, then by always folding here i save myself money even if sometimes i fold the best hand.

and H2, @Luck! and thelorax : how would you play it and why?

[daviddem]

H1: He is never ever reraise 99-JJ.

+1.

He is a nit and on this dry board with 99-JJ facing a UTG open he knows that if he raises he will only be called by better hands (unless he is against a fish who he thinks might peel with overs).

edit: let me change my mind here. This is a minraise and - forgetting that we know what he did on the turn - let's assume for a moment that he holds 99 or TT:
- facing an aggressive opp who will 2-barrel often if he just calls, it may be the best/cheapest way for him to get to showdown
- at the same time it charges 6-outer overcards a bit to see the turn
- if reraised, it is correct and easy to fold
- so the minraise makes the hand easy to play, may stop aggression in its tracks and prevent UTG to fire a second barrel and give an opportunity for a cheap showdown or a bluff
- it also puts UTG in a difficult situation when he holds a bigger overpair, which he now has to play OOP facing what is a set or aces half of the time and a smaller overpair the other half.
- when holding 99 it offers some fold equity against hands like TT or JJ, and maybe even other big pairs.

So altogether the minraise with 99-TT seems a very good play to me, as long as UTG is not likely to spazz with AK or an underpair.

No?

How many threads in the BC from people confused by flop minraises? Confused means likely to make mistakes.

This play is going to pop up in my game pretty soon. Just have to choose the right villains to do it against.

Now, what is the best answer to this play against an opp who you *know* minraises the flop with both his sets AND and 99-AA? Would it not be to call and b/f the turn?

I am not saying that he is the kind of villain who would do that with 99-JJ. Just pointing out that it seems to me that it's a good play. If I am wrong on this, please point out why.

[thelorax]

Re H2:
why so small on the turn?
b/f river for .50 - .60 depending on turn sizing