Top set oop facing river flush

[Openside]

Villain is solid. Plays tight aggressive ABC poker. 17/15 over 171.

I think my line is solid. His range is static after the flop. Question is about river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($8.06)
MP3 ($8.25)
CO ($7.03)
Button ($5.70)
SB ($5)
BB ($24.59)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($2.40)
Hero (MP1) ($10.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

PF HJ: 22+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+, 98s+

Flop: ($1.65) K, 9, 3 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, MP3 calls $1.10, 2 folds

Flop: AKo, AhTh+,9h8h+, 99, 33

Turn: ($3.85) A (2 players)
Hero bets $3.60, MP3 calls $3.60

River: ($11.05) 7 (2 players)
Hero?? (5.05 behind, Villain has 3.15)

My 'soul-read' is that the villains flush just got there. If he has the set or AKo i am expecting a turn shove.

c/c river, right? We are getting 4:1 if he shoves so c/f is out of the picture, no?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.250% 56.25% 00.00% 9 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 43.750% 43.75% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 99, 33, AKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AKo }

Even though our psb is committing us to a river c/c, giving villain implied odds, the implied odds are still not enough to justify the turn call.

[StarGrinder]

I doubt villain is as solid is as you think when he's calling a PSB on the turn with just a FD and a shallow stack. And if you think you've got this much equity vs his range on the river, why are you questioning whether you should stick the rest in or not?

[Viscaro]

bet, he's calling pretty wide on river because of the price he will get, and a lot of his hands that will pay off a bet will just check back.

[Openside]

I doubt villain is as solid is as you think when he's calling a PSB on the turn with just a FD and a shallow stack

Valid point, though solid is relative. He is positionally aware, steals well and i haven't seen showdown with anything crazy.

And if you think you've got this much equity vs his range on the river, why are you questioning whether you should stick the rest in or not?

c/c. Thanks

[Openside]

Edit: I meant c/f river not b/f

[Openside]

And if you think you've got this much equity vs his range on the river, why are you questioning whether you should stick the rest in or not?

Your right. At the time i was thinking "wtf, my sizing commits me to a river call therefore i am giving him implied odds to call the turn". As i wrote the post and did the math i saw that this is not the case. He needs better than 9:1 to call the turn to chase the flush.

/thread

[Miffed22001]

If the stacks were deeper then b/f - i guess if your intention is to never fold the river then you might as well be shoving or b/c.

Folding seems pretty bad - but villains line only looks like a FD - he must have caught a pair on the turn so maybe an AQs hand

Also - if you build a river range he has to have a hell of a lot of flushes for it to ever be worth folding - i dont even think you ever could given pot odds.

I think you got he bet sizing right to the point where irrespective of the river results you win this spot much more than villain