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Top set oop facing river flush

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  1. #1

    Default Top set oop facing river flush

    Villain is solid. Plays tight aggressive ABC poker. 17/15 over 171.

    I think my line is solid. His range is static after the flop. Question is about river.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 ($8.06)
    MP3 ($8.25)
    CO ($7.03)
    Button ($5.70)
    SB ($5)
    BB ($24.59)
    UTG ($10)
    UTG+1 ($2.40)
    Hero (MP1) ($10.15)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K
    2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

    PF HJ: 22+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+, 98s+

    Flop: ($1.65) K, 9, 3 (4 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, MP3 calls $1.10, 2 folds

    Flop: AKo, AhTh+,9h8h+, 99, 33

    Turn: ($3.85) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $3.60, MP3 calls $3.60

    River: ($11.05) 7 (2 players)
    Hero?? (5.05 behind, Villain has 3.15)

    My 'soul-read' is that the villains flush just got there. If he has the set or AKo i am expecting a turn shove.

    c/c river, right? We are getting 4:1 if he shoves so c/f is out of the picture, no?

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 56.250% 56.25% 00.00% 9 0.00 { KcKd }
    Hand 1: 43.750% 43.75% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 99, 33, AKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AKo }

    Even though our psb is committing us to a river c/c, giving villain implied odds, the implied odds are still not enough to justify the turn call.
    Last edited by Openside; 01-28-2011 at 12:11 PM.

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