spoonitnow's 5000th Post: Game Theory and Poker

[kfaess]

2. If Villain calls with a 7 or higher, what hands can Hero make a +EV value bet with?

Look at his calling range:

A K Q J T 9 8 7

We can only bet hands that will beat more hands than it loses to. The worst hand that meets this requirement is a Jack which beats 4 and loses to 3 of the hands in Villain's calling range. Therefore, we can make a +EV value bet with an Ace, King, Queen or Jack.

I think this is wrong.

[daviddem]

I think this is wrong.

Why? When you make a value bet, you should have more than 50% equity against villain's calling range {AKQJT987} The lowest card that has more than 50% equity against this range is J because if you bet a J, you win 4 times against T987 and loose 3 times against AKQ, so you win more than 50% of the time. If you bet a T, you win 3 times vs 789 and you loose 4 times vs AKQJ, so you win less than 50% of the time, so a T does not fit the requirement. So J is the lowest card you can make a value bet with.

[spoonitnow]

I think this is wrong.

Surely if you think something this basic is wrong then you could explain why?

But it's not wrong so you might have a hard time doing that.

So what about it is confusing you?

[kfaess]

A J is the lowest card you SHOULD make a value bet with, I agree with that. However, that's not what the question asks. The question asks what is the lowest card we can make a +EV value bet with. There is a big difference there.

What if for some reason P=100 units? We're betting 1 into 100 and he's folding half his hands. Is this not +EV?

A J is the lowest card we can make a value bet with where a bet is better than checking, imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that a bet with a T is -EV.

You might say that in the example where P=100 and we bet with a T that's not a value bet. Well, I think its more of a value bet than a bluff and its compensated by the fact that we win a ton of dead money when he folds.