5NL FR AJs in MP2 - bet this turn?

[daviddem]

I hate AJ, apart for stealing or in LP against one or two loose limpers, so I am still not sure why I did not throw this one away. Part of it I guess is because it was suited and the remaining players were all very tight (apart from the caller who is slightly looser).

Opp is 20/9/3.0AF over 35 hands and I'll assume he flats the preflop raise with about 11% of his hands, which would be JJ-22,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo+,KQo,QJo or the likes.

Flop is standard I think, but I should probably have bet a bit more due to connectedness and the likelihood he holds overs. Reason I didn't is that if I bet the pot only when I have a hand and 2/3 or 3/4 pot when I cbet, it quickly becomes pretty noticeable. Still, I should have potted this one (and probably not cbet it if I had missed).

He flats the bet and at this point I have him on AdKd,AdQd,AJs,AdTd,KdTd,KJs,KQs,QTs+,JTs,AJo,QJo

I did not include the sets because he would most likely not slow play them on this board. Against this range with the Qh on the turn I am a very slight underdog (47% equity).

Bet? Check? Plan? I'll post the rest of the hand when I get some comments about this turn. OOP on the turn is probably the worst leak in my game.

Please don't say "fold pre, you're only getting called or raised by the nits with better hands". I know.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP1) ($5)
MP2 ($4.97)
CO ($5.07)
Button ($4.93)
SB ($11.89)
BB ($6.82)
UTG ($2.26)
UTG+1 ($5.07)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.20, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) J, 9, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, MP2 calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) Q (2 players)

[Razvan729]

if me was hero... and thinking logic... i would check/call turn, if his bet is reasonable... if not... fold... there is not too much for you to hold here...you said his tight, both are early on the table....so my guess he's on AK or AQ... AQ putts you behind, AK still ahead.... try to get cheap the river.

[spoonitnow]

Pre-flop is a raise, and it's not close at all.

You have plenty of value on the flop and it's wet, so betting bigger to .40 or .45 is fine here as well.

On the turn you probably still have value but it's a bit closer. Put them on a range, etc.

[daviddem]

Just curious to know if you always play AJs/AJo in early MP (or even EP)? The hand is so often dominated when you're called by tight players...

I did put him on a range on the turn, probably a little too tight because I took only 11% of starting hands when he apparently has more because looking back he cold calls raises with 18% of hands in this small sample. So let's say he can have a couple more draws in his range and I have 50% equity here on the turn. Do you prefer to bet or check?

If we bet:
- he probably folds all but his strongest draws
- he'll raise all his made hands and we can correctly fold (unless he raises the top of his drawing range) but we have to give up our hand that has a decent equity even against his raising range.
- if he just calls and the river is a blank for both of us, we are in the same situation again, only with a bigger pot.

If we check, he checks behind with his draws (or has a perfect opportunity to bluff with them) and with such a board he'll bet hard with his made hands. So he can play perfectly against us. Can't really call a proper bet because of lack of implied odds of the flush. Other improvements on the river (two pairs, trips) will often be beat anyway, and we'll find ourselves in a real tough spot if we improve on the river, we check and he bets again.

I am always at odds of what the best play is in these 50/50 spots.

[Razvan729]

AJs i play in late MP... AJo just from CO and later/// but in your case here, i would check, call if he's bet is 1/2 pot... fold otherwise.... but you know i aint the best to give advice... but htis is what i whould do.

[NightGizmo]

If we bet:
- he probably folds all but his strongest draws
- he'll raise all his made hands and we can correctly fold (unless he raises the top of his drawing range) but we have to give up our hand that has a decent equity even against his raising range.
- if he just calls and the river is a blank for both of us, we are in the same situation again, only with a bigger pot.

I'd bet the turn about .75. If he's on a draw, he'll make a mistake by calling you too much, plus he has less outs than he thinks since hearts give you the best hand. If he raises, he might make a mistake and raise too small, giving you the right odds to call.

River:
If you hit your nut flush, bet. If you miss, check and decide on a call based on your equity against his range.

I'm not sure why you don't think you have implied odds against him with your flush draw. Do you really think he'll give you much credit for a runner-runner flush if you bet the river?

[daviddem]

Turn: ($1.17) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP2 raises to $2.40

That's 26.8% pot odds. As you said, he probably made a mistake by not raising enough and basing his raise size on my bet only, forgetting about the dead money in the pot. Classic.

So what is his raising range here? Not so easy because I am not sure if he would have raised the flop if he had a J, or if he would chase the flop with one over and a gutshot like KT, or two overs and a gutshot like KQ or if he would slow play a flopped set, or even if he could be semi-bluffing with a draw or have T8s in his preflop calling range or chase with two overs like AQ. So here are a few tentative turn raising ranges and corresponding equities:
AdQd,KQs,KdTd,QTs,KQo 30.1%
AdQd,KdTd,KQs,QTs+,KQo,QJo 29.3%
AdQd,KTs,KQs,QTs+,T8s,KQo,QJo 25.3%
AdQd,KTs,KQs,QTs+,KTo,KQo,QJo 25.3%
AdQd,KTs,KQs,QTs+,T8s,KQo,KTo,QJo 24.8%
33,JJ,99,AdQd,KTs,KQs,QTs+,T8s,KTo,QJo 22.2%

So obviously the less straights and sets and the more top pairs/two pairs in his range, the higher my equity because my A and J outs are more often good. I think that slow played sets are rather unlikely, and straights also because it's difficult to see him holding T8s or chase the flop with just one over and a gutshot (KT). Still not impossible though.

Call? Fold?

[Razvan729]

i would fold the hand in a sec.

[NightGizmo]

That's not a small raise size, actually. If he made a pot-sized raise, then you would get pot odds of 33%. So 27% here isn't that far off.

If you're playing to catch your flush on an unpaired board and check/folding otherwise, then you don't have implied odds to call (unless you think he will check back the river with a lot of hands that you beat). Even hitting an A or J on the river isn't much help to you, because it turns a lot of his hands into better 2pair or boats.

I'd make an unhappy fold here and pay attention to this player to see if he's bluffy or not. If you knew that he plays draws this way, you could definitely call. But with only 35 hands and no specific reads, I would just wait for a better situation.

[PokerWang]

Depends on your read. Try to get the next card cheap. If he is indeed a nit, he probably already has you beat.

[nickatina-69]

bet turn is good, fold to reraise seems good too

[mbiz]

his pre stats are a bit loose passive (tiny sample size ofc) AND its microstakes so i look at his raise as pretty strong, him usually being ahead, and thus you are drawing to a flush to win and not getting odds to call. I'd also say him folding to a turn 3bet are low so i reckon fold too.

[daven]

AJs from MP and you better be opening dude
flop, you're right that the cbet is standard and that you can go bigger. The pre-flop calling range you put him on is too narrow, his flop calling range looks accurate, add sets obviously, some discounted QQ, KJo, QTs, 8Ts and a few shitty Adxd and diamond scs.
turn is interesting. You're in the complicated trade-off spot between charging draws vs your substantial equity even when behind. I barrel here sometimes, like anything from $0.60 and pot depending on all sorts of shit. If his flop fold to c-bet is high then i even consider block-betting $0.20 and snap calling his min-raise with implieds...

Checking is interesting. I think his turn raising range is similar to his turn bet when checked to range, if he acts aggressively then you gotta put him on a range that raises - I'd suggest AdQd, KdQd, QQ, QJ, JJ, 99, 33, KdTd, 8Ts cos people just don't bluff raise turns that often when they're loose-passive. So, if he raises it's all about pot + implied odds.

hand is played fine if you fold to his raise now.

[daviddem]

I did fold...

Thanks for your opinion, my turn play really needs a lot of work.

[rpm]

the turn is obviously the most significant street in this hand. and i am pretty much at a loss as to what course of action i prefer because

You're in the complicated trade-off spot between charging draws vs your substantial equity even when behind. .

however. i can say that i think you should most very certainly be opening AJs here. and that betting more (i like pot, or very close to) on the flop would allow villain to make a bigger mistake in calling, because the flop texture is wet, and his calling range will have more equity as a result.

out of interest, what are your VPIP/PFR/3bet stats? if you are even considering folding AJs preflop here, you must be one serious nit.

[daviddem]

out of interest, what are your VPIP/PFR/3bet stats? if you are even considering folding AJs preflop here, you must be one serious nit.

This is all 5NL FR:
12 / 9 / 3b:3.3 / steal:32%
flop_cbet:68% / AF:3.3 / HEM_Agg%:29%

More details about my 5NL stats are here. Ridiculous sample size though.

For AJ, it may be that I have a history with the hand. I 10 times prefer to raise my small pairs in MP vs tight players and play a cbet/shutdown strategy when called. That's simple and easy. With AJ I seem to get into sticky situations more often than not (just like the hand above). I also remember watching a microstakes video here on FTR where he dumps his AJ (also in MP I think) without hesitating a second, saying "AJ is just a trouble hand". And no, I don't think he was facing a raise.

And yes I am a nit, but these are my first steps at 5NL and I am only 3-4BI above my stop loss limit, so I tend to make the "low variance" plays.

I am a nit with my bankroll, but I don't have a nit soul. I am getting sick with nit-ring. I started playing 2NL 6max on Titan poker. I play 21 / 18 / 3b:7% and I love it (maybe because I have a win rate of 24bb/100 over 5000 hands Americans have no idea what they miss on the Euro sites! Also I must say that since I have moved to the Philippines it has become very difficult to play at donk-hour on Full Tilt (3 to 9AM in the Philippines=evening in the US), so more often than not when I want to play I am facing taggs or super nits and find only a handful of tables with VPIP>25%).