2/4: flop the nuts (deep)

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think the probability of villain showing up with J9 or AJ is small enough to be insignificant.

Your overrating the accuracy of your hand reading ability.

[pocketfours]

Your overrating the accuracy of your hand reading ability.

Lol what? If I think he doesn't have the straight then I think he doesn't have the straight and there's nothing I can do about that is there? I have duly noted that Danny and Rich both think he almost always has the straight and I should have jammed to get him off the split.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Lol what? If I think he doesn't have the straight then I think he doesn't have the straight and there's nothing I can do about that is there?

Yes, there is something you can do about it, you can stop being ignorant about you thinking he doesn't have a straight = he never has a straight.

[Alexos]

Let me speak for everyone else reading this thread and not posting : WTF?

[pocketfours]

Yes, there is something you can do about it, you can stop being ignorant about you thinking he doesn't have a straight = he never has a straight.

I don't understand what you are trying to achieve by reiterating. Your opinion was duly noted. I didn't say that he never has the straight, I simply said that with my reads I thought the likelihood of him having a straight was small enough that it didn't change my plan in the hand.

If his range by the river consists solely of flopped sets, flopped two pair hands, and he never calls or bets with his two pair hands, then the correct strategy is to c/f. Due to the size of the pot, the correct strategy will change very fast when we start adding straights to his range. This is clear to everyone and can't be argued about.

I certainly get what you and Rich are trying to say: You are saying that this situation is too marginal for me to make such a thin play with so much money commited. I have duly noted your opinion about this and most of the readers will trust your opinion over mine anyway.