Deep river decision

[daven]

it's close. A fold is fine - especially if you have any tendency towards tilt - but it probably doesn't matter too much whether you call or fold cos it's like 30% or something and he'll have AA/33/KJ and weird shit like J8 occasionally.

edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

[Keith]

.

edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

when i looked at the hand history i was thinking along the lines of $1 on the flop , 5$ on the turn,leaving the option of a roughly pot sized bet on the river.

[Carroters]

Yeah there's no way in hell you can do anything but call this river.

[Hoopy]

it's close. A fold is fine - especially if you have any tendency towards tilt - but it probably doesn't matter too much whether you call or fold cos it's like 30% or something and he'll have AA/33/KJ and weird shit like J8 occasionally.

edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

Cheers for the advice daven, I think it's possible that he can get to the river with AA in his range but not have hardly any Jx type hands in his range based on my read that he would always bet or c/r Jx on the flop. JJ/33 are definitely possible if he likes to slow play big hands.

[Carroters]

Guys seriously, opp is a drooling tilting moron that's likely to play really badly and show up with dumb shit and you're wanting to fold and giving us less than the 27% we need to call here.

KJ can so so easily be in his range here in mass quantity. His sizing is very much not indicative of nut flushes or even strong ones. He can have these yeah, but I'd discount them more than I would a blocking semi scared hand like KJ. He can also play a Jx hand like this a non 0% of the time or even have 45s.

He obviously has a flush most of the time here, but when we need 27% equity and he can defo show up with KJ and some other randomly played Jx sometimes; we just can't fold for this price.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.143% 32.14% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 67.857% 67.86% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AsQs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 7s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, KJo

This is a range with just KJ and a shitload of flushes. We have more than enough equity. This range accounts for no additional random spazz (AA Jx etc) tha he can defo have occasionaly, and doesn't discount nut flushes due to his sizing at all. Can someone make a tight enough range where we have less than 27% equity against such a tard?