Okay I just typed out a good sized response to that scenario you described but my puter deleted it all randomly because it is a cunt. So, I will rewrite the response because you are one of the nicest seeming guys on ftr and I have nothing else to do at this hour.
Okay let's think about the factors that you need to consider in this hand.
This guy is aggro, but from previous reads it's not a very polarised range when he starts shovelling monies in. He's also less likely to dick with us with total air when we bet on a 3 way flop. If he has a range of all Qx+ and draws then we'll have pretty shitty equity due to there being a load of combos of Qx and the draws still doing well vs us.
So looks like on the flop that even though he's generally aggro, our equity isn't going to be great and so we should probably fold, unless of course, we have another reason not to. So.....whatabout the LOL OMFG POT ODDS!!!!! that we're getting, is this a reason to peel the flop? Even if we have enough equity vs his range to peel a min raise based on these immediate pot odds in a vacuum, this is still going to be a fold and here's why.....
The other thing you observed about this guy is that when he played flops aggressively before, he potted turns and rivers and didn't slowdown. It's fairly likely he'll do this again on the turn with most of his range. What this means is, if we're going to call the flop minraise profitably, we need to also be able to call turns profitably when he bets larger amounts, because we think he'll do this very often. Since we actually have to fold turns due to his range containing too much Qx, it doesn't matter how good our odds on the flop are, because we very rarely get to realise any of the equity we have vs his flop raising range, because we don't and can't get to showdown profitably.
Therefore there can be spots where even if a min raise gives us the lolpotodds to make a call in a vacuum on the flop, looking only at only one street; analysis of the hand as a whole will show that we actually have way less equity than a stoved range on the flop will show us to have due to having to fold the turn/river so often. Thus, a lot of the equity we may have vs the draws or even air part of his range on the flop is actually ghost equity (dum dum DUM) since it hardly ever gets realised. So let's fold the flop.
Obviously if this guy is likely to start slowing down, giving up on the turn etc then we could peel since he'll define his range more on turn cards and allow us to play well vs him and get to showdowns. Since he isn't doing this often at all based on what we#ve observed, peeling the flop to fold turns a huge amount of the time will be setting monies on fire.
There are loads of ways to exploit a guy who goes mental with top pair, one of them is to fold 2nd pair when he starts going mental.
/rant.
Fairly tired, so what I say may be all nonsense. If it is, then just remember this: GHOST EQUITEEEEES.
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Originally Posted by Carroters
