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  1. #1
    Good analysis- by doing things like this over and over again in different ways/situations you force yourself to get better.

    side note: one reason why i tend not to eliminate combinations (weight ranges) on the forum (even though i am always doing this in game) is that it makes it harder for others to comment in some ways. you can always add enough assumptions such that the play you made looks like the perfect play. you also can always add assumptions after the fact to convince yourself you made a certain mistake which you might not have even made. by leaving more uncertainty in the problem i try to combat either of the two errors i just mentioned and then tweak the more general model in game to suit specific circumstances.

    couple quick things:
    1. in a vacuum, 3betting with KJcc vs a btn open is going to be significantly better than flatting. however, flatting may be better for balance, but its important to know 3betting is the most +ev play. this isnt necessarily the case, (as in i dont know whether 3betting or calling KJcc vs a btn raise would be game theory optimal or whatever) it just is the case in my database, and in the databases of everyone i have ever talked to. so its an empirical observation

    2. what you're doing in your analysis is analyzing the way each of your possible betting/raising/calling options would influence his range, and influence the final potsize on various runouts. I think a more direct way to frame your analysis would be "how can i make the largest potsize, with the highest frequency, vs the weakest range of hands i can get him to hold?" typically the answer to that question is "what line will he think is most full of shit?" you start to do this by eliminating a flop C/R as a good option because you thought it would narrow his range too much too early in the hand (and your hand is unlikely to improve, and your hand doesnt need much protection), even though a flop c/c + turn lead is basically the same size as a flop c/r.

    3. River is a very clear value bet vs most opponents, even if he folds like 60% of his range i still think you are ahead more than 50% when called

    Gl in poker !
    Last edited by sauce123; 10-08-2010 at 03:00 AM.
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
    flatting may be better for balance, but its important to know 3betting is the most +ev play.
    something about the way you worded this intrigues me. didn't know if you wanted to elaborate on why exactly it's important to keep this in mind?
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    something about the way you worded this intrigues me. didn't know if you wanted to elaborate on why exactly it's important to keep this in mind?
    Ok, so assume first of all we are playing against an opponent who can't see our cards, but can see our range.

    we now get deal XY in the BB and villain opens.

    we have to choose a range of hands with which to call, a range to 3bet and a range to fold.

    our 3betting range will be most profitable if it includes the top X% of hands, (small caveat here: it might be better to have hands like 87hh in there and not A9o b/c of domination issues but this will mostly be true) imagine first a 3bet range of KT+, AT+ JT+, 55+ vs a more polarized range. we can still fold the bottom of our (linear) 3betting range to a 4bet, then call some and raise some, but overall the bottom of our 3betting range is going to do better than say, 63hh, just because of the raw equity we hold.

    however, we only get dealt KT+, AT+, JT+, 55+ some % of the time (say 15%, tho this isnt exact). and we dont want to let our (range-seeing) opponent open 100% of btns and win 85% of the time. So now we have to call some too maybe. But then our calling range consists of perhaps the next 15% of hands, call it A5-A9, A2s-A8s, suited connectors, some medium strength high card hands etc. The problem now is that our opponent is going ot be able to barrel us extremely effectively on many high card boards, and many low card boards and value bet 2-3 streets with hands as weak as AJ. This may make our calls -ev or neutral ev.

    therefore, it is usually better to play two balanced, polarized ranges for calling and raising, with the raising range containing most of our nut hands but not 100%.

    (i skipped a few steps here, and this an idealized scenario obviously)

    (this is put qualitatively, but there is strong basis in game theory for playing a strategy like I just described)
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum

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