AQ

[OngBonga]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($2.96)
CO ($2)
Button ($1.96)
SB ($5.08)
Hero (BB) ($4.99)
UTG ($2.55)
UTG+1 ($1.30)
MP1 ($1.57)
MP2 ($0.66)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.08, 4 folds,Hero?

Total pot: $0.05

Ok, Villain is 11/3 over 88 hands.

My question is not really what should I do here against an 11/3, I kinda know the answer to that.

My question is this... can I consider his stats reliable enough after 88 hands to make an informed decision? After all, it's barely a session. I know I've been sat at a table in the past for like 100 hands and my stats for the session tell me I've raised twice and called twice in this seemingly endless epoch of shite. Has he been card dead while sat with me? Or is he only raising hands that crush me?

And how much of a part should his stack size play? Is this a good reason to call, widening his range because he might be feeling desperate? Or fold, due to lack of serious implied odds?

I really didn't know what to do. I'll avoid disclosing what I did until I've seen what a few of you might have to say.

Cheers...

[OngBonga]

Sorry I did it again, I keep putting simply the hand as the title so I can preview the thread to make sure the hand history is correct, and then forget to edit it before posting. I'll try to stop doing that...

[JKDS]

Cool thing is stats are never reliable. They serve as a neat guide though.

Like, you might have noticed this guy doesnt play many hands...then you might have taken notes on which ones he did play. You might have noticed that he's been more aggressive lately since his stack dwindled...or he tightened up a bit...or maybe he sat down with 60c and is up right now.

As is, u can tell this guy is pretty tight. Raising with AQ then doesnt make any sense at all as his range is stronger than AQ. Calling has some value as we're getting just about 2:1 and we can expect we'll make some when we hit our A or Q (odds slightly worse than 2:1). Folding is 0ev.

Calling is raelly the only thing that make sense then.

[Tasha]

By calling you may also get to answer some of the above questions whereas if you fold you are just delaying the inevitable of being in the same situation again the next time he raises preflop.

[Keith]

Is calling down to the river to find out if his range is JJ+,AK a good idea when his range crushes AQ just so that you can find out how accurate the HUD info is?If you want to get that info watch other hands that are going to showdown and try and put the players on ranges based on your hud info and then modify that on each street . Getthe info for free and develop your own skill at the same time.
How will you ever know if he has been card dead,calling will never tell you that.Whats the point of calling to see if he's widening his range because his stack is short? Theres a lot of info missing in the OP . Did he start off short stacked or buy in full and calling a lot and folding/losing at showdown etc. If he's playing a short stack strategy (at 2nl its pretty lol) his range should be stronger than if he bought in full ( not rebought/playing weak tight implies a fish) can he be pushed off a better hand ?

Because of stack size, his range beating ours and playing the rest of the hand out of position i'd fold

[spoonitnow]

If you call down and see that he has 99, that doesn't tell you anything at all. Keep in mind the quality of information you're getting compared to the cost of it.

You are beaten by his range and are out of position. No amount of skill difference is going to overcome those two things and the rake with such a small stack.

Note if you were slightly ahead of his range, it should still be a fold, and if you were on the button it would probably be a call.

[Tasha]

I know that everything that Keith and Spoon said is wise and calling or worse betting for info is bad. It is the size of his stack that is most interesting in relation to that of Hero and everyone else.

Whats the point of calling to see if he's widening his range because his stack is short?

Look at it like this, what would you do if you were the Villain with such a short-stack and possibly knowing that your image is unclear? Wouldn't you give it go to try and widen your range a bit?

Keep in mind the quality of information you're getting compared to the cost of it.

That's just thing. How much is it really costing you at this stage to find out what is going on. Doesn't that make it worth it?

[Keith]

as I said before we have a lot of info missing here that becomes relevent. Did he buy in full , hasn't reloaded and is now down to .66 which makes him fishy.
Did he buy in for the minimum and pretty much plays a shove/fold game. does he limp shove his premium hands, raise his medium PPs 99-JJ and call everything else that he plays. You get that sort of info for free by watching him play , not paying off his monsters.

did he start of playing 4/3 and just recently has been limping or calling a lot as stack has shortened, in which case he has widened his range ( the hands he's limping ) but he's probably still got the same raising range . the info is there for free if you are watching the other players so theres no need to pay for it.

That's just thing. How much is it really costing you at this stage to find out what is going on. Doesn't that make it worth it?

pretty simple 4bb and now you know what? nothing....now do you donk on a A high flop, do you donk on a Q high flop? do you check and see what he does? if so and he cbets do you call so that you can find out the info you want or fold ? if fold why did you call pre? you're just setting yourself up to be in a spot with no info, a bigger pot, and hardly going to win much to cover the risk if you do happen to beat him.

[Tasha]

Fairly enough. I suppose that is the answer to OP's question then; no, you don't have enough info.

[parislad]

Look at it like this, what would you do if you were the Villain with such a short-stack and possibly knowing that your image is unclear? Wouldn't you give it go to try and widen your range a bit?

Problem with this for me is that you are crediting the villain with second level thiking, ie assuming that a 2NL short stacker is thinking about what you think he has. So I'd just take it as read, and fold, and keep an eye on his future action

[OngBonga]

Thanks for all the replies, sorry I've been offline for a couple of days so I haven't been able to take it in until now.

Regarding the question of his buy in... this information I don't know, I've been at the table for 14 hands so 74 hands are previous sessions. All I can really say about him other than my HUD info is he's been folding for the 14 hands I've been at the table, as far as I can recall. He certainly hasn't gone further than a cheap flop, so his stack would not have been much higher when I sat down. My stack size indicates to me that there was a well stacked fish at the table, or else I would have bought in for 100bb. I clearly maxed out after sitting down, usually it's a note on someone that inspires such a risk with a relatively small bankroll. This guy I'm in this hand with is certainly not the fish I'm targetting.

His stack size made this spot difficult for me to know what to do. I didn't know if it was better to take on a short stack with a hand like AQ or avoid a tight player with it. I felt like I should fold, and I'm fairly sure I would have had I had 200+ hands on him, but I convinced myself he was merely card dead and desperate and made the call. Flop is Q high. My play was fairly automatic, even if I was concerned about his hand, I c/raised him all in and he insta called kings. Turn was an ace. I told myself off for making the call and said sorry to him, but it happens to us all, we win when we should fold and lose when they should fold. Poker can be cruel!

I know after he shows I made a bad call pre flop, and a bad shove on the flop, and I'll probably accept a sample of 88 hands in the future for such a tight player.

[daven]

hero folds is fine, hero 3bets is marginal but ok, hero calls is pretty bad here