Quote Originally Posted by kidsoldja View Post
You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.
Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.
A lot of players at microstakes will also raise it up 'cos they flopped top pair. You should know how aggro he is when he hits the board if you've been watching the showdowns he's been involved in. Value donking the turn will get like all worse hands that wouldn't have bet to fold (I think he's atleast calling any 10 in his range here after raising the flop cbet), and all better hands to raise. If we check it pretty much accomplishes the same thing except for we get to the river instead. Given your read that all villains bet big with their big hands then I don't see why we can't call a small bet on the turn and fold to a large bet. Once again, it should be really obvious if he barrels large amounts and gets stacks in with top pair if you've been taking notes on him. Some players at microstakes do bluff whenever they feel that they can't win unless they don't, but you're right in to assume they have it UNTILL you have a decent sample/saw showdown/watever. You can't assume that all players at 10nl bet with the nuts and check when they don't.