10nl, KK facing aggression on dry board.

[kidsoldja]

villain 26/21 over 77

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10)
BB ($10.25)
Hero ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
CO ($11.82)
BTN ($6.17)

Dealt to Hero

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.75)

Hero bets $0.40, CO raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80

TURN ($3.15)

Hero checks, CO bets $2.40, Hero ?

should i just raise the flop and get it in? is it wrong to feel that villain might be raising a set on such a dry flop? i think this might be one of my greater leaks...

[StarGrinder]

AT and other random Tx show up here a ton and possibly JJ. Most villains would wait until the turn to raise 44, 55 or TT on such a dry board. And I would expect a hand like 88 or 99 to check behind on the turn. How aggressive has villain been postflop?

[littleogre]

I would not fold but i'm not sure if we are better off just calling down once he reraise the flop or just 3-betting him?

[Donachello]

call down it keeps his range widest and there aren't that make scare cards you can see here.

[parislad]

I would raise more pf utg at 10NL... I see bet-calling flop as good since raising would only reveal the strength of your hand. On turn I'd like calling too^^keeps range widest as said.

[Imthenewfish]

77 hands on him tell us some moar stuff bout him

[Penneywize]

77 hands on him tell us some moar stuff bout him

Are you guys aware of how statistically probable it is for a guy who runs 18/15 lifetime to run 26/21 over a span of 77 hands? All we have now is a weak confidence interval that his stats are somewhere near 26/21.

Coles notes, 77 hands is gay, and at the very least you should be able to give us some actual reads on how he's played before. Especially if you've seen some showdowns.

[Imthenewfish]

Are you guys aware of how statistically probable it is for a guy who runs 18/15 lifetime to run 26/21 over a span of 77 hands? All we have now is a weak confidence interval that his stats are somewhere near 26/21.

Coles notes, 77 hands is gay, and at the very least you should be able to give us some actual reads on how he's played before. Especially if you've seen some showdowns.

more likely to get accurate reads on bet sizing/how he spazzes in 77 hands than accurate hud stats imo

[Penneywize]

more likely to get accurate reads on bet sizing/how he spazzes in 77 hands than accurate hud stats imo

Agreed

[spoonitnow]

Anyone here like a larger flop bet size?

[philly and the phanatics]

yea i guess most the shit hes calling a .4 bet with hes gonna call a psb with ...that being said as played you need to come up with a plan, do you think you are good vs his range or not, if hes gonna stack off with jj,AT,KT,JT,QT, or 67s then jamming the flop is more than fine, if you dont think he is going to do that, then like DC said, call and get value on more streets, all we are down to right now is 44,55,tt, and 45s so 11 hands. Itd be a lot more helpful for YOU as well as us helping if you at least put in the effort to assemble some sort of range

[spoonitnow]

yea i guess most the shit hes calling a .4 bet with hes gonna call a psb with ...that being said as played you need to come up with a plan, do you think you are good vs his range or not, if hes gonna stack off with jj,AT,KT,JT,QT, or 67s then jamming the flop is more than fine, if you dont think he is going to do that, then like DC said, call and get value on more streets, all we are down to right now is 44,55,tt, and 45s so 11 hands. Itd be a lot more helpful for YOU as well as us helping if you at least put in the effort to assemble some sort of range

Well the reason I ask about the bet-sizing is that I think Hero's bet-size is a pretty decent-sized mistake here. It just seems like sort of an ongoing theme that bet-sizing issues are thrown aside in hands like this as not being very important.

You could then extrapolate and start to think about how Hero should play his entire range on this flop, what his c-bet size should be for his entire c-betting range, etc.

[speedcake]

ya first thought was bet size on flop was wtf small.

then second thought is, why the fuck is everyone all like "hai gaiz! definitely call flop and check/call turn to keep his range wide!!!!" without actually discussing what that range might be?

ffs

[rong]

Yeah agree that bet sizing is the main problem here. Firstly, I'd raise 4bb pre, but I don't have as much of a problem with pre as I do with raising .40 into a .75 pot on the flop. It kind of throws me in terms of hand analysis, because your bet gives less information about villain than a say $0.60 bet.

As for his range, I'd say remove all 2p's as he prob wasn't calling with that crap. So we're left with sets, missed mid range PPs, overpairs, AT, or perhaps the entire of the rest of his opening range cos he thinks the small bet is a weak bluff.

That is not to say that betting this small to induce a bluff is a good idea, just that the flop bet makes your life so myuch harded in terms of trying to read villains hand.

[Outlaw]

Don't throw such a pussy flop bet out there unless your intention is to induce.

As played I like a check-call line to get value from the part of his range that includes bluffs and hands you beat. If the money goes in on the flop its likely -ev.

[shallam]

You only have a 100 BB so I think it's acceptable to go broke with an over pair. You could be up against AT, JJ, QQ. But of course you could also be up against a set or AA. I'd rather go broke before the flop or the flop, then late in the hand when a pair isn't nearly as strong.


There is also nothing wrong with trying to call this down, control the pot, maximizing the balance between when you are beat and when you aren't. FWIW, this looks like some sort of strong made hand, I would almost entirley rule out draws.

[Donachello]

You only have a 100 BB so I think it's acceptable to go broke with an over pair. You could be up against AT, JJ, QQ. But of course you could also be up against a set or AA. I'd rather go broke before the flop or the flop, then late in the hand when a pair isn't nearly as strong.


There is also nothing wrong with trying to call this down, control the pot, maximizing the balance between when you are beat and when you aren't. FWIW, this looks like some sort of strong made hand, I would almost entirley rule out draws.

I agree that .40 is a small bet, maybe like .55 or .60 would be better but not much larger. If he still raised after that size bet I might be okay letting the hand go. The board is pretty dry, and the only conceivable draws are like 67, 78 which I do not see raising here ever.

I'm glad this hand got posted because I've been having kind of similar hands recently where I take the c/c line and when no scare cards come on the T or R it's just hard to get away from your over pair. At that point it obviously becomes player dependent on whether they are capable of a bluff that can go for multiple streets. In some cases it's certainly acceptable to fold KK here despite taking a pot control line because his range is basically nuts or air and you have to figure out whether there is enough air to justify calling.

Obv if he takes this kind of line with QQ, JJ then it's pretty lol and would certainly justify calling more. That said, I probably call down in this case and take a note on what he has.

Jesus TL;DR

[kidsoldja]

You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.

Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.

[Imthenewfish]

You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.
Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.

A lot of players at microstakes will also raise it up 'cos they flopped top pair. You should know how aggro he is when he hits the board if you've been watching the showdowns he's been involved in. Value donking the turn will get like all worse hands that wouldn't have bet to fold (I think he's atleast calling any 10 in his range here after raising the flop cbet), and all better hands to raise. If we check it pretty much accomplishes the same thing except for we get to the river instead. Given your read that all villains bet big with their big hands then I don't see why we can't call a small bet on the turn and fold to a large bet. Once again, it should be really obvious if he barrels large amounts and gets stacks in with top pair if you've been taking notes on him. Some players at microstakes do bluff whenever they feel that they can't win unless they don't, but you're right in to assume they have it UNTILL you have a decent sample/saw showdown/watever. You can't assume that all players at 10nl bet with the nuts and check when they don't.