2nl, QQ vs 0/0's utg open

[JKDS]

Villains an unknown, hes 0/0 over 13 hands

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($6.17)
UTG+1 ($4.92)
Hero ($2)
MP2 ($1)
CO ($2.39)
BTN ($0.86)
SB ($2.02)
BB ($2.28)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 8 players) Hero is MP1
UTG raises to $0.08 ($6.09), 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08 ($1.92), 4 folds, BB calls $0.06 ($2.20)

maybe 3b here just cuz im in fairly early position too...but he hasnt played a hand since he sat down and id be pretty lost if he did just about anything in response to it.

Flop: ($0.25, 3 players)
BB checks ($2.20), UTG bets $0.18 ($5.91), Hero calls $0.18 ($1.74), BB folds ($2.20)

sizing is about 2/3, board is dry, im somewhat worried about BB calling behind but i feel calling is best just to keep the hands hes bluffing with at a max. I also figure if villain has like 5 combos of flush draws max, and his range is mainly AK, AQ, AJ, TT+. The weaker hands somewhat discoutned since hes kinda tight it seems

Turn: ($0.61, 2 players)
UTG bets $0.42 ($5.49), Hero calls $0.42 ($1.32)

nothings changed really. keep worse in still?

River: ($1.45, 2 players)
UTG goes all-in $5.49 ($0.00), $1.32 to Hero ($1.32)?

at this point, i start doubting myself. is he really shoving on a double paired board now after a flush comes in? I know villains dont think really hard about our ranges...but even most 2nl donks would think that i have alot of flushes in my range and 4x right? idk, it seems like it he very clearly just told me that hes either 3 barrel bluffing or has a hand strong enough that he doesnt care about this board.

[Donachello]

You absolutely have to raise the turn I think. I might even just shove the turn.

[NightGizmo]

Ugh, I hate spots like these, especially against virtual unknowns.

Since he stayed out of the first 13 hands, I would assume that he's playing a tight game. I like the range you assigned to him and the flop call is good for the reasons you listed, but I'm not sure I would have called on the turn. You now have 34% of your stack in the pot and the villain has been showing strength on every street, leaving you in a very bad spot on the river -- especially when that club hits.

On the river, I fold -- I suspect he is either spazzing out with AA/KK or hit his flush with AJss+.

[JKDS]

You absolutely have to raise the turn I think. I might even just shove the turn.

Ya i agree. I know i should probably be taking the initiative somewhere in this hand but i just cant find the right time. If i had to guess, i would say that it isnt typical for 2nl ppls to double or even triple barrel air...and that hes probably gonna be hard pressed to fold an overpair/flush draw. So im thinking that the raise might even be warranted on the flop. But ya...for sure by the turn.

[thelorax]

i think you need to raise the turn.

if you raise the flop isnt it pretty easy for him to just shove with any overs/fds putting you in an awkward spot?/ your also getting rid of weaker hands by raising the flop that may barrel the turn again if you just call behind..idk just throwing it out there.

river is a fold with minimal reads.

all that aside i dont know if he will barrel the turn here with a fd since the board is paired. idk.. sux thats hes 0/0

[cleanup.that]

I don't really like raising the turn unless you want to stack off. (which I'm assuming you don't really want to do given the concerns you expressed) You can 3bet pre I think it makes the hand a lot easier to play.

When I played 2nl I used to take villain's exact line a ton with my overpairs, (pot/pot/shove) he may just think you are another bad 2nl player calling down with any pair. I also used to shove rivers for value an insane amount (sometimes very thinly) so I think if you feel that he is a tight in line player then hes probably doing this for value and you need to fold now.

[kmind]

Guys realize that a raise on the turn is an AI. Kind of sucks but I think I get it in on the turn because I assume he can do this with any over pair and now he can have 2 flush+overcards draws with AKs.

[Fnord]

Fold the river.

[Micro2Macro]

the turn seems pretty close. and by pretty close I don't mean close between call or shove, I mean close between call and fold.

fold river as played.

[rpm]

how many combos of 99-JJ (out of 18) do we think he's firing the turn with? seems to be the key to deciding how to play the turn. the Q blocker rules out AQs and KQs for flush draws so there are prob 4 flush draw combos at the most (less than there are of each individual overpair, for a bit of perspective). i dont like raising the turn here because i think he's folding 99-JJ (if he even fires the second barrel with them) a decent percent of the time, so we get it in bad way more often than not when we raise turn (i'm thinking vs KK+,AcKc,AcJc). now i look at it, i think i'd take the exact same line, assuming you folded river.

[Hoopy]

On the river I think his range is something like {JJ+,88,77,44,AcKc,AcJc} which we have 25% equity against (need 32%). It seems to depend on if villein would play TT this also - which is probably an assumption we can't make at this stage - might not even have JJ here. So I'd fold river - turn not so sure on.

3bet pre?

[JKDS]

Looking back i agree that its very uncertain if TT can be there which is a major factor in the decision since i need him to have at least this to make calling profitable. I highly doubt he ever has 88, 77, or 44 though...if he played those then he likely be raising alot of other things as well and id expect to see a blind steal or a sb defend or something where he puts money in somewhere but he hasnt. Hrm, i wonder if this is why M2m is saying turn might be a fold...im starting to doubt that JJ might even be there at this point