-EV Call?

[spoonitnow]

To clarify the math:

Bet = the bet size you're calling, pot = the pot when it's your turn to call.

Obviously you're calling $10.80. The pot when it's your turn to act on the end is the 4.55 that was in it going into the turn plus the 3.50 you put in with your bet and the 14.30 he put in with his raise for a total of $22.35.

So bet/(bet+pot) = 10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 or 32.58%.

[deucesomething]

To clarify the math:

Bet = the bet size you're calling, pot = the pot when it's your turn to call.

Obviously you're calling $10.80. The pot when it's your turn to act on the end is the 4.55 that was in it going into the turn plus the 3.50 you put in with your bet and the 14.30 he put in with his raise for a total of $22.35.

So bet/(bet+pot) = 10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 or 32.58%.

ahhh thanks for that. I suppose it was right to call here. Would anyone have approached this hand differently considering we're deep?

[jaytoi]

ahhh thanks for that. I suppose it was right to call here. Would anyone have approached this hand differently considering we're deep?

maybe check into villian, considering he didn't ship the two tone flop, and hasn't been too out of line , as you've said? i.e if he bets it isn't going to be same insane overbet we cannot possibly call..

[jaytoi]

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

[Donachello]

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

A couple things. You mean you can never be offered worse than 50% pot odds as 1:1 = 1/2 = 50%. You CAN have 0 equity in a pot.

Anyway, if you take the above range (I left out KdTd since I doubt he raises that UTG.)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.965% 46.97% 00.00% 20923 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 53.035% 53.03% 00.00% 23627 0.00 { 99+, 77, 44, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

You now look at your pot odds since we are an underdog here which is what spoon was showing.
10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 < 46.965 = +EV.

I don't actually think he has as many flush draws as you put in the range but even when you take most of them out the equity doesn't change much at all. I think you played it fine.

[sven00100]

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

I disagree on the 48%ish.. and you can need 50%+ in fact I did need 50%+ in a hand where I had 50% and folded, since we have to account for rake. this is a minor point, but I think it is overlooked on marginal hands.. Had a .04 pot AKQJT on the board, 4 suits (ie. no possible flush) villain shoves all in for $1.98 more (i have $2.98 behind or so) so the final pot would be $4.00 - rake. Without accounting for rake, obviously I have 50% EV and 1.98/4.00 = 49.5% needed. EZ call.. But obviously if we're trying to maximize profits we need to account for rake... lets assume 5%.. I think that's what FT takes, don't remember. so our calc is 1.98/(4.00(1-.05)) = 1.98/(4.00-0.20) = 1.98/3.80 = 52.1% EV needed. I fold. Rarely will this make a difference in which is the best play, but occasionally it matters, though this is one of the few situations where we can obviously do this. However, I think when a call is that close, this should be accounted for.

Anyways, that was a rant; irrelevant here, but I think it's useful to express. Edit:: useful preflop as we know rake>blinds in most all in pots.. still need >50%

[jaytoi]

Good point sven. It's a very micros specific thing though I would say :P unless the pot is just the blinds like you outlined..

and yes i think when i said equity i meatn pot odds and when i said EV i meant equity ...