Ask Spoony About Poker, Life, and Anything Else

[Fielmann]

1. If I have played n tournaments with a ROI of x, then how do I calculate the probability of my real ROI being somewhere between x - a and x + b?
I guess it will have something to do with standard deviation which will be dependent on field size, payout structure, playing style etc. How can I quantify all this?

2. If my monthly expenses are x, then how big of a bankroll do I need before becoming a professional?

3. In ten years from now, what will poker be like? Will NLHE stay as the most popular game? Will there be enough bad players to earn living from or will the poker boom fade so that only decent players remain?

[spoonitnow]

1. If I have played n tournaments with a ROI of x, then how do I calculate the probability of my real ROI being somewhere between x - a and x + b?
I guess it will have something to do with standard deviation which will be dependent on field size, payout structure, playing style etc. How can I quantify all this?

2. If my monthly expenses are x, then how big of a bankroll do I need before becoming a professional?

3. In ten years from now, what will poker be like? Will NLHE stay as the most popular game? Will there be enough bad players to earn living from or will the poker boom fade so that only decent players remain?

1. I think you can get standard deviation of tournament winnings and whatnot from the tracking software, though I'm not certain (I know you can for cash games). From there you can probably just download a spreadsheet to do it for you from twoplustwo or something using Google. There are javascripts out there that will do this calculation for you as well.

2. It depends on whether you're supporting only yourself or others and what kind of money-making capability you'll have if you were one day unable to play poker, or unable to play poker profitably. I think somewhere around 15-20x is probably fine if you live alone or if you have a spouse that works with no kids. For each kid I'm going to pull out of my ass that you should add about 5x. Seems good?

3. There's no way to tell really. At some point we're going to have to start learning more games, but there will always be fish.

[Carroters]

1. What is my biggest leak/flaw as a poker player?

2. Differecnes and adjustments to be made between 50NL and 100NL in your experience?

3. Being able to beat what level of NL cash separates the decent players from the ones that actually have really great potential to pwn poker? Like where do you see the most winning players moving up to become losing players in other words?

[spoonitnow]

1. What is my biggest leak/flaw as a poker player?

2. Differecnes and adjustments to be made between 50NL and 100NL in your experience?

3. Being able to beat what level of NL cash separates the decent players from the ones that actually have really great potential to pwn poker? Like where do you see the most winning players moving up to become losing players in other words?

1. You're stupid. Actually I have no idea how you play and I don't know you very well so it's hard to answer this question.

2. Double the blinds? Not much.

3. Probably somewhere around the jump from 200nl to 400nl.

do you think I'm +EV at 400nl?

Yes but 200nl might be a higher hourly.