TPTK against a semi tagg with TPTK- too tricky for 2nl?

[jaytoi]

Preflop:

Villian is somewhat taggish, and very aggressive- ran about 21/12/5.00 over a small sample. And his steal attempt % was about twice his PFR so he's positionally aware. So his range is a bit tighter in MP1, something in the bounds of {77+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo+}. Calling, even OOP, i think is correct here, because he's folding the range I beat to a 3-bet.

Flop:

His cbet flop % is 62.5, which means he's betting all his missed broadways, 55,44, overpairs, + of course AQ/KQ, and checking behind all the second PPs. When he makes that 80% of pot -ish bet, im leaning towards his range being more consisting of missed BW cards and AQ/KQ. Overpairs given his aggression im assuming he'd be at least potting me here for more value/hand protection, and would say the same for 55/44. I feel like i have all of his likely range beat here, so i want to extract some value out of the hand at this point.

Given I had a donkish image at the table at the time (recently tilt-calling a SSer all in with A10s) i make a min-raise to represent im trying to "see where i'm at" but dont want to commit myself too much. Knowing he's a thinking opponent ( tight-ish, aggressive, positionally aware from stats) I assume he'll jump on what he sees as a show of weakness, which he does , 3 betting me. I still think i have him beat given his huge agg factor, but call to follow through with representing a marginal hand (TPGK, second pocket pair etc etc).

Turn:

He barrels 1/2 pot but of course it's a frikkin brick and i have no reason to believe he just got there against me. He MAY have overpairs still but i still have odds to call as i only need to be good like 30 percent of the time.

River:

All in. Hmm. Still feeling i have odds to call against his range, and he's triple barrelled 33 % so there's definitely still a lot of air in it.

Is check-donkraising too tricky a play here or could it feasibly extract money from a super aggressive tagg with 62.50 cbet?


PokerStars Game #40943628634: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/03/10 7:06:41 ET
Table 'Cetus' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Jaytoi ($5.87 in chips)
Seat 2: molsonthedog ($3.43 in chips)
Seat 3: eldava51090 ($1.20 in chips)
Seat 4: N@T@LI ($3.18 in chips)
Seat 5: denis-d-85 ($3.63 in chips)
Seat 6: LowMoon ($1.97 in chips)
Seat 7: Deater ($0.97 in chips)
Seat 9: ausbrens ($2.34 in chips)
ausbrens: posts small blind $0.01
Jaytoi: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jaytoi [ ]
molsonthedog: folds
eldava51090: calls $0.02
N@T@LI: raises $0.08 to $0.10
denis-d-85: folds
LowMoon: folds
Deater: folds
ausbrens: folds
Jaytoi: calls $0.08
eldava51090: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $0.18
Jaytoi: raises $0.18 to $0.36
N@T@LI: raises $0.28 to $0.64
Jaytoi: calls $0.28
*** TURN *** [ ][]
Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $0.66
Jaytoi: calls $0.66
*** RIVER *** [ ][][]

Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $1.78 and is all-in
Jaytoi??

[only_bridge]

I would suggest a fold on the flop here. Sure he might be bluffing, but you have to pay off both turn and river to find out.
As played, well if you still think there is a 30% chance or greater that he is bluffing, then you have the pot odds to call.
I dont think he is bluffing though for his whole stack with such a huge frequency OOP.
So what hands might he have?
Well probably QQ+

[spoonitnow]

What is the purpose of the flop raise? What range doesn't fold? What is your equity against this range?

[jaytoi]

Purpose of flop raise was to try and get him to spazz with his air type hands, just because they make up a lot of the range that would bet that amount.

Are we talking fold to flop bet or the 3 bet he puts in after i minraise?

[jaytoi]

thinking his range is qq+ i think is a bit weak tight, because if you stove a 10% range and observe what hands he might have bet flop with, it's waaay wider than QQ.

[surviva316]

if this hand were against me, and i held AA, i would tank after your flop c/r if you didn't have a history of playing back at my cbets.

[jaytoi]

Just thinking about it there are only like 10 combos in his opening range which get there on the flop, out of like 50 + combos. So with a cbet % of 62.5 (especially considering this is a great board to cbet bluff on) , he's cbet bluffing way more than 30 percent i reckon.

[surviva316]

well then luckily for us, there's an option that is neither folding nor raising.

[jaytoi]

yeh indeed, and a call seems a logical and sensible option, pretty straightforward choice really. my main reason for posting said hand was asking if it was to tricky to do a donk looking raise to induce a 3 bet bluff from a hyperaggressive tagg in 2nl. Probably is, as it seems, + the chance of him just have AA or KK anyway.