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TPTK against a semi tagg - too tricky for 2nl?
Preflop:
Villian is somewhat taggish, and very aggressive- ran about 21/12/5.00 over a small sample. And his steal attempt % was about twice his PFR so he's positionally aware. So his range is a bit tighter in MP1, something in the bounds of {77+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo+}. Calling, even OOP, i think is correct here, because he's folding the range I beat to a 3-bet.
Flop:
His cbet flop % is 62.5, which means he's betting all his missed broadways, 55,44, overpairs, + of course AQ/KQ, and checking behind all the second PPs. When he makes that 80% of pot -ish bet, im leaning towards his range being more consisting of missed BW cards and AQ/KQ. Overpairs given his aggression im assuming he'd be at least potting me here for more value/hand protection, and would say the same for 55/44. I feel like i have all of his likely range beat here, so i want to extract some value out of the hand at this point.
Given I had a donkish image at the table at the time (recently tilt-calling a SSer all in with A10s) i make a min-raise to represent im trying to "see where i'm at" but dont want to commit myself too much. Knowing he's a thinking opponent ( tight-ish, aggressive, positionally aware from stats) I assume he'll jump on what he sees as a show of weakness, which he does , 3 betting me. I still think i have him beat given his huge agg factor, but call to follow through with representing a marginal hand (TPGK, second pocket pair etc etc).
Turn:
He barrels 1/2 pot but of course it's a frikkin brick and i have no reason to believe he just got there against me. He MAY have overpairs still but i still have odds to call as i only need to be good like 30 percent of the time.
River:
All in. Hmm. Still feeling i have odds to call against his range, and he's triple barrelled 33 % so there's definitely still a lot of air in it.
Is check-donkraising too tricky a play here or could it feasibly extract money from a super aggressive tagg with 62.50 cbet?
PokerStars Game #40943628634: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/03/10 7:06:41 ET
Table 'Cetus' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Jaytoi ($5.87 in chips)
Seat 2: molsonthedog ($3.43 in chips)
Seat 3: eldava51090 ($1.20 in chips)
Seat 4: N@T@LI ($3.18 in chips)
Seat 5: denis-d-85 ($3.63 in chips)
Seat 6: LowMoon ($1.97 in chips)
Seat 7: Deater ($0.97 in chips)
Seat 9: ausbrens ($2.34 in chips)
ausbrens: posts small blind $0.01
Jaytoi: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jaytoi [ ]
molsonthedog: folds
eldava51090: calls $0.02
N@T@LI: raises $0.08 to $0.10
denis-d-85: folds
LowMoon: folds
Deater: folds
ausbrens: folds
Jaytoi: calls $0.08
eldava51090: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $0.18
Jaytoi: raises $0.18 to $0.36
N@T@LI: raises $0.28 to $0.64
Jaytoi: calls $0.28
*** TURN *** [ ][ ]
Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $0.66
Jaytoi: calls $0.66
*** RIVER *** [ ][ ][ ]
Jaytoi: checks
N@T@LI: bets $1.78 and is all-in
Jaytoi??
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