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 Originally Posted by pocketfours
Who says zook is bluffing a shit ton on the river? If our image is so bad that we get called enough by worse, then we should be checking the turn. This is 200nl and I wouldn't worry too much about balancing and bluff protection. I also think that our image needs to be really terrible for this bet to show profit in a vacuum. I mean easy bet for the griffo obviously but as he said himself he probably wouldn't bet the turn.
If this river bet got called by KJs/QJs, then the turn bet was a mistake. Betting contradicts with our chosen strategy, we bet the turn to force villain to make a big laydown by the river, but now we hit a pair and we suddenly decide that this is a good spot for thin value? Cmon. Or was the plan to give up blank river and check behind? That's really sheepish and I hate it.
Nothing you wrote really contradicts what I wrote. If we feel opp is not going to check the turn with a range we can bluff against profitably I wouldn't call the flop.
You do have a point about the turn though. My defense against that is we have only a vague notion whether opp is going to call or fold some hand like TT/KJs/QJs/JTs/QQ/KK on this river. The only hand that is really beating us is AJ. Thats one hand vs 6 others (although i admit KK/QQ clearly has less weight in this situation). We are also in a situation where we are playing a ton of nut made hands the exact same way up to the river. We have a range with a lot of nut hands vs an opponents range that doesn't. To me, that is a fantastic bluffing opportunity.
So lets say we think okay, I think there's a 50% chance he will call with a weaker hand, and 50% of the time he will fold. In this situation, both value betting AQ here when we hit an Ace and bluffing with something totally random like 77-88 would be good. There is also the idea of betting $80 when we hit out Ace but shoving all in when we don't. Its unbalanced it doesn't matter as long as opp doesn't know what we are doing.
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