JJ Misplayed 10NL

[!Luck]

Villian is 10/6/2 over 265 hands.


His raising range is likely 88+,AJs+,AQo+ though AJs is very questionable. So against this range

I have 53% equity thus calling makes sense. Now if i consider raising his calling 3-bet is verys trong. It is likely to be something like AK,QQ+ against which I have 36% equity against and if he 4 bets shove I have to dump. According to my hud he has folded to a 3 bet 4/4 times however, I do not from which position he raised or the position from which the 3 bet came.

But if I assume he has 3-bet range of ak,qq+. That is a total of 16 for AK plus 6*3 for the 3 pocket pairs or. a total of 34 combos.

His initial range contained 7*6 for pocket pairs AJs 4 +aqo/aqs+32 total of 42+32+4=78. Thus if I 3-bet he is folding 34/78 of his range or 43% of the time.

If I 3-bet I risk 1.1 to win .55, thus to generate an immediate profit he needs to fold 66% of the time. Since based on what I view is a semi wide raising range and a tight calling range I can't see an immediate profit. But how do I account for the fact that I will have some equity when I hit? I am not sure but I doubt it can make up 23%.

All this shit just to get to the flop.

At the time of this hand I did not check his C-Bet flop, but many would bet out there overs, thus his range is unchanged by my strength vs his range has.

After seeing the flop my equity increased to 56% and his continuing range shrank a bit as Ak is no long in there. If i raise to 1.55 I would need to have him fold about 50% of the time to show an immediate profit and if he re raises I can safely let it go. I think that is prob. my best move.

The rest of the hand is awful so my analysis stops on the flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($2)
MP2 ($5)
MP3 ($3.85)
Hero (CO) ($18.95)
Button ($2.10)
SB ($11.45)
BB ($22)
UTG ($9.50)
UTG+1 ($6.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 3, 8, 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.75) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.85 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $4.75 | Rake: $0.20

[mz102489]

pre is fine imo.
I raise flop to 1.50 and fold to a shove..

(disclaimer: ive been getting pwnt at 25nl..so yeah)

[Stacks]

What hands is this villain continuing with if you raise the flop?

Seems like you played it well.

[paws]

I dont really understand this line of play. IMO, it's basically:

PF:
Villain: I have AJs, AQ+,88+
Hero: OK, I call

Flop:
Villain: I have a set or overpair
Hero: OK, I'll call.

Turn:
Villain: I still have a set or overpair.
Hero: No problem, I'll call.

River:
Villain: I really have a set or overpair (which now is a boat).
Hero: Oh noes, I 'll fold (my boat).

So wouldn't it have been either a fold on the turn when the villain didn't check or a call on the river because the villain's represented range didn't change and the river card was irrelevant to his range from our point of view?

[surviva316]

putting a 10/6 opening UTG+1 at 10nl FR on a range is soooooo easy, it's kinda silly to not play perfectly against it.

PF: 77+, AQ+ (sometimes 22-77 is in there and sometimes AJs, but that's not relevant to this hand), obviously call because a raise would allow him to only continue with QQ+, AK, in other words we've turned our hand into a bluff

FLOP: entire range cbets, obviously call because a raise would allow him to only continue with sets, and better overpairs (maybe he's retarded enough to continue with 99-TT, but even if he is, we're still behind his range now). in other words, it turns a perfectly great hand into a bluff.

TURN: nobody double barrels at 10nl FR as a bluff, and certainly not 10/6's, so this is pretty much always for value. his range, then, is sets, and 99-AA, so we only beat 99-TT (and 10/6's check this turn for pot control a lot anyway with those hands). I guess he can also have a diamond draw, but that's only AdJd+, so that's only 3 combos, and they all have like 15 outs against us. so we can fold here.

THIS is why nits are profitable to play against. they're ranges are so so so so face up, so you have to be able to make obvious folds (and as you progress more, you can make obvious bluffs too) and watch your red-line take off.

[kmind]

Yeah I just fold turn

[Icanhastreebet]

Muck turn for the reasons surviva detailed, possibly flop if he isn't c-betting overs like ever (IE You seen him open AK/AQ and check it down a couple times now)

[daven]

fold turn as played.
Anyone else want to look more closely at pre-flop and flop based on villain's stack size?

[daven]

Villian is 10/6/2 over 265 hands.
His raising range is likely 88+,AJs+,AQo+ though AJs is very questionable. So against this range

what's his steal %, that will indicate how narrow his utg+1 range is. The range stated above is too wide, drop AQs/AJs/AQo from it and it's still almost too wide.

[bigspenda73]

no way am I ever folding any street ever

in before "sick analysis"

[ChezJ]

i dunno, maybe i am dense but why not 3bet pre to test whether he will 4bet/push? without that info, u should at least raise the flop to get the info then.

[pccarballo]

I would fold turn given your read on villian. very rarely he is betting anything you beat on turn..

[hhsale]

fold turn