Villian is 10/6/2 over 265 hands.


His raising range is likely 88+,AJs+,AQo+ though AJs is very questionable. So against this range

I have 53% equity thus calling makes sense. Now if i consider raising his calling 3-bet is verys trong. It is likely to be something like AK,QQ+ against which I have 36% equity against and if he 4 bets shove I have to dump. According to my hud he has folded to a 3 bet 4/4 times however, I do not from which position he raised or the position from which the 3 bet came.

But if I assume he has 3-bet range of ak,qq+. That is a total of 16 for AK plus 6*3 for the 3 pocket pairs or. a total of 34 combos.

His initial range contained 7*6 for pocket pairs AJs 4 +aqo/aqs+32 total of 42+32+4=78. Thus if I 3-bet he is folding 34/78 of his range or 43% of the time.

If I 3-bet I risk 1.1 to win .55, thus to generate an immediate profit he needs to fold 66% of the time. Since based on what I view is a semi wide raising range and a tight calling range I can't see an immediate profit. But how do I account for the fact that I will have some equity when I hit? I am not sure but I doubt it can make up 23%.

All this shit just to get to the flop.

At the time of this hand I did not check his C-Bet flop, but many would bet out there overs, thus his range is unchanged by my strength vs his range has.

After seeing the flop my equity increased to 56% and his continuing range shrank a bit as Ak is no long in there. If i raise to 1.55 I would need to have him fold about 50% of the time to show an immediate profit and if he re raises I can safely let it go. I think that is prob. my best move.

The rest of the hand is awful so my analysis stops on the flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($2)
MP2 ($5)
MP3 ($3.85)
Hero (CO) ($18.95)
Button ($2.10)
SB ($11.45)
BB ($22)
UTG ($9.50)
UTG+1 ($6.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 3, 8, 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.75) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.85 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $4.75 | Rake: $0.20