2/4 - one check.. two check.. three.. err jam

[griffey24]

-Villain in this hand is a 24/19/2.5 type, who 3bets me a fair bit, since I think he thinks I fold too much to 3bets
-He has definitely 3bet me light IP, especially when I open EP, cause he thinks once again I fold too much and mostly 4bet or fold OOP
-Figured I would call OOP, since it makes me the most from his light 3bets and AQ isn't too hot vs his stack off range
-I think he thinks I'd 4bet most of my strong strong hands pre
-No reads on his flop check back range, but I felt he would bet most of his air on this turn card, so my plan was to c/c turn and river to bluff catch
-once he doesn't bluff the Q, I feel like he has some SD value so I lead river (going for a c/r is also an option).
-my river bet was pretty fast (1 second), his river shove was fast (2 seconds)


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($197.45)
Hero (UTG+1) ($505.10)
CO ($526.10)
BTN ($463.70)
SB ($420.10)
BB ($680.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BTN raises to $44, 2 folds, Hero calls $30

Flop: ($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($94, 2 players)
Hero bets $70, BTN raises to $419.70, Hero to call 350??

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think the turn is a very very easy bet.

I can't imagine folding river because it makes so little sense and there are so little hands that the 5 helped. There's also a lot of thinner value and bluffs in your range.

[griffey24]

I think the turn is a very very easy bet.

If I put him on a polarized range of air and nutish hands after preflop (where nutish hands would mostly always bet the flop), isn't my best play to c/c on the turn when I weight is range to now be air? Not to mention the fact that air might view this as a good bluffing card?

[pocketfours]

I think I also prefer a turn bet. I would probably fold river against a decent player.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If he has some air pre so he may have hit an 8x or 6x. definitely bet twice.

river is an easy fold. he could have slowplayed the flop or he just hit. doubt hes bluffing

[IowaSkinsFan]

I would guess that most people would cbet their air on this flop, no?

[bspahn]

whats our perceived range here for flatting knowing that we 4bet as bluff or with big hands (QQ/KK/AA/AK)

something like 88/99/TT/JJ/AQ/KQs perhaps?

would we generally include hands such as 22-66 in his 3bet range here?

[Irisheyes]

At first I liked the turn check but the guys are right that a turn lead is better because he probably does fire most of his air on the flop and also if he's 3betting a polarised range IP then he probably has more T6s type stuff than flop overcards in his range. So yeah lead the turn.

Also I don't like preflop. If you fold a bunch to my 3bets, 4bet some and then call one OOP AQ/KQ/88/99 are the hands I put you on. So I'm worried you will be easy to read postflop.

[nutsinho]

always bet turn, almost always fold river

[griffey24]

Also I don't like preflop. If you fold a bunch to my 3bets, 4bet some and then call one OOP AQ/KQ/88/99 are the hands I put you on. So I'm worried you will be easy to read postflop.

Naah, versus these guys I'm flatting KK/AA sometimes too OOP and 4betting QQ/JJ more often since they will be harder to play.

Wow am I a donk or something? Is this really such an easy b/f on this river, given the flop/turn action?