NL 25: AJ get shoved on on river. I so wanna look him up....

[BlueBull]

Villain is somewhat LAGGY over a small sample (50 hands) playing about 31/27. He has an overall aggression factor of 5 and has gotten to showdown 17% of time when seen flop and won all of them.

I have not seen him make this overshove before or I would probably have noted it and I have no notes on this player.

I planned on calling a lot of reasonable river bets but mostly this shove seems to be the nuts at 25nl.

Any thoughts on the entire hand appreciated:

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($28.40)
CO ($25.00)
Hero (BTN) ($38.75)
SB ($15.90)
BB ($51.45)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.85, 2 players)
UTG bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25

River: ($14.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $21.40, Hero folds

Final Pot: $35.75

UTG wins $35.05 ( won +$6.65 )
Hero lost -$7

[van.dog]

Maybe he puts you on AK and thinks you'll call his set?

[dejection08]

It would honestly be hard to call a 3rd barrel in the first place. imo i think you made the right fold. Basically you have a bluff catching hand. You never really took control of the hand so his range gets larger since we already know this guys is aggressive. He's turned your hand into a bluff catching hand. Its not a hand that you can feel comfortable raising. So All in all its most likely a good fold.

it's a spot that you need to make a soulread on

[Micro2Macro]

Sample is somewhat irrelevant. I've ran like this over 100 hands and I'm normally 13/10.

Thus, my UTG range would still be tight, as are most players - even lags.

So imo you don't have enough information to call AJo here preflop. If it's suited I might since we have position and the hand would have more potential to eventually get it in, but you're just getting yourself into a spot where you have a hand that has a problem with reverse implied odds and you have absolutely no reads on how villain plays postlop other than the fact that he's aggressive and that he hasn't seen any showdowns.

You play a hand that's a bluff catcher, plan on catching a bluff, but then fold to a brick river after calling the brick turn. Folding pre would have been better.

[Micro2Macro]

FML THIS IS 6MAX IGNORE LAST POST

-call pre??? (I'd still rather not have AJ here but I'm a nit)
-call frop
-call tyrn
-...

how fast did he bet on the river?

seems like he's almost pissed off you called the turn by overbetting like that....I call.

[Robb]

good fold

[AFchung]

preflop is a bit questionable. laggy or not, its still an utg raise. but since its 6m its a bit less worrysome than fr

flop call is good
turn call is iffy. i think we need more postflop reads but even if a call is a mistake its not a big one

river fold is absolutely standard. we beat a bluff and the sizing of his bet makes the fold even easier

[Micro2Macro]

I'm pretty torn when it comes to making a decision in situations like this so I revert to my previous thought of folding preflop.

[Illfavor]

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

[BlueBull]

how fast did he bet on the river?

He pretty much used his entire time bank. The longer he thought the more inclined I was to snap off a bluff but then he put the whole lot in and I chickened out.

[AFchung]

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

AJ is a dominated hand

[sarbox68]

I so wanna look him up....

Please don't. Ok, thx....


Oh, and if you really got a bad recurring case of the "look sees" (which BTW everyone gets, so no harm no foul...) either a) go digging through your HEM or PT database, filtered by "saw SD" for all the free looks you can handle, or b) drop down to $2NL where the peekin' is cheaper. Either one will help you get get it out of your system for a lot less dosh... which in case you didn't know is moniez in the UK!

[BlueBull]

Please don't. Ok, thx....


Oh, and if you really got a bad recurring case of the "look sees" (which BTW everyone gets, so no harm no foul...) either a) go digging through your HEM or PT database, filtered by "saw SD" for all the free looks you can handle, or b) drop down to $2NL where the peekin' is cheaper. Either one will help you get get it out of your system for a lot less dosh... which in case you didn't know is moniez in the UK!

LOL! Good Advice!!

Thanks for all the responses. Appreciated.

[daven]

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

if you would take the same line then you have big leaks.

pre-flop fold or 3-bet.
flop raise.
turn fold as played.
River fold as played.

[Illfavor]

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

if you would take the same line then you have big leaks.

pre-flop fold or 3-bet.
flop raise.
turn fold as played.
River fold as played.

I'm sure I do, so could you explain some of this? Pre-flop I understand fine, and I'd much rather fold than 3bet here. I do not understand what a flop raise accomplishes though. And as I've said, I would probably call the turn but it's prob. a fold in analysis.

[Robb]

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

if you would take the same line then you have big leaks.

pre-flop fold or 3-bet.
flop raise.
turn fold as played.
River fold as played.

I'm sure I do, so could you explain some of this? Pre-flop I understand fine, and I'd much rather fold than 3bet here. I do not understand what a flop raise accomplishes though. And as I've said, I would probably call the turn but it's prob. a fold in analysis.

Against a wider >20% UTG PFR, 3betting AJ is better 'cuz it puts him to a tough decision preflop and postflop with his entire range (except AA). Against tight UTG players <12% or so, flatting this is OK, but consider folding. If we flat, we're going to have read well and avoid being dominated on any flops we hit except like JJx.

If you call this preflop, a flop raise gets value from all his cbets, and he folds most pp's and Ax he's in here with. He also bombs with most of his range that beats us, so it's and easy fold for about the same amount of chips as calling flop/calling turn would be. We win more when he doesn't have a big hand, and get away from just as cheap when he does want to play for stacks.

If we take the lead preflop, we can barrel this flop harder since we crush most of his 3b flatting range.

Hero's crushed by villain's range by the turn, and the river doesn't help. No point in calling off chips on the turn when we can't call a river bet - virtually nothing in the deck make us confident we can play for stacks here on the river.

I guess the overview is take control of the hand preflop or flop, or else just ditch.

[Illfavor]

A 3bet pre seems really marginal, and if it's not a bluff then why can we not call with even greater equity? I just don't see how we can 3bet here pre and not be bluffing.

If his 2barrel range crushes us, and it's essentially the same range as that calls a flop raise...why are we putting in an extra bet on the flop when he's going to check the turn (and maybe call a river bet) with hands we beat? I just see a flop bluff as unnecessary b/c we aren't really calling any more bets anyway, and have SD value against a villains well-defined range.

I guess I'm just missing something huge here, bc intiative doesn't seem that important to me when his actions well-define his hand.

how fast did he bet on the river?

He pretty much used his entire time bank. The longer he thought the more inclined I was to snap off a bluff but then he put the whole lot in and I chickened out.

he had the nuts

Lol...what is wrong with preflop?

We could maybe fold then turn, but def. fold river. I'd take the same line.

if you would take the same line then you have big leaks.

pre-flop fold or 3-bet.
flop raise.
turn fold as played.
River fold as played.

I'm sure I do, so could you explain some of this? Pre-flop I understand fine, and I'd much rather fold than 3bet here. I do not understand what a flop raise accomplishes though. And as I've said, I would probably call the turn but it's prob. a fold in analysis.

Against a wider >20% UTG PFR, 3betting AJ is better 'cuz it puts him to a tough decision preflop and postflop with his entire range (except AA). Against tight UTG players <12% or so, flatting this is OK, but consider folding. If we flat, we're going to have read well and avoid being dominated on any flops we hit except like JJx.

If you call this preflop, a flop raise gets value from all his cbets, and he folds most pp's and Ax he's in here with. He also bombs with most of his range that beats us, so it's and easy fold for about the same amount of chips as calling flop/calling turn would be. We win more when he doesn't have a big hand, and get away from just as cheap when he does want to play for stacks.

If we take the lead preflop, we can barrel this flop harder since we crush most of his 3b flatting range.

Hero's crushed by villain's range by the turn, and the river doesn't help. No point in calling off chips on the turn when we can't call a river bet - virtually nothing in the deck make us confident we can play for stacks here on the river.

I guess the overview is take control of the hand preflop or flop, or else just ditch.

bad advice
you have to maximize value against his range
NONE of what you said does this, it MINIMIZES the value we get from his range
if we're ahead we make the least
and certainly raising doesn't help us when we're behind because if we raise the flop and he smoothcalls our raise, he can check turn and still shove river when we check it back

well his bet sizing is kind of ridiculous in this hand anyway, so that's where he made his mistake

let's play the hand from his perspective
if he has total air sometimes he'll give up on the turn
if he somehow has a flush draw (actually unlikely, but w/e) he'll sometimes give up on the river not having made his flush (good regs will continue)
sometimes he'll fire air again on the turn to make sure we have an ace and give up on the river
or sometimes he'll half-pot the river hoping we fold a missed draw

let's say he has a medium strength hand like AQ
he will probably still go for two streets
I think on the river his best play is to c/c and hope for busted draw to bluff or hope we check back a stronger hand like A9 because people always put the PFR on AK lol
or he could check turn to induce a bluff and check/decide river

if he has a hand like AK which is a strong hand but a hand he may not be psyched to put it all in with he might just bet all 3 streets smaller and be happy with a 70BB pot or w/e and probably felt if raised, but won't be happy about it

if he has a set he's like omg omg omg how can I go all in

what does your raise accomplish? he may only fold ONE hand that beats you, and that's AQ
you're bluffing with the best hand a lot
in the end all you accomplish is make him fold his double barrels or possibly 3b shove his flush draws because he knows you're folding to a 3b on the flop after raising since you're turning top pair into a bluff

How is that a good result?

[Robb]

3b pre > flat pre raise flop > as palyed, imo

@ IOPQ, we'll just have to disagree, i suppose, since I think villain hit the perfect 2 barrel board and he's betting flop and turn with 90% of UTG PFR range. The problem isn't what we're getting HIM to fold (or not), it's what he's getting US to fold.

[Illfavor]

I'm waiting for someone to explain why 3betting w/o reads is correct here.

3b pre > flat pre raise flop > as palyed, imo

@ IOPQ, we'll just have to disagree, i suppose, since I think villain hit the perfect 2 barrel board and he's betting flop and turn with 90% of UTG PFR range. The problem isn't what we're getting HIM to fold (or not), it's what he's getting US to fold.

No, Robb it doesn't work that way

I don't fucking write a long-ass explanation so you can say "we'll just have to disagree"
I don't see your point about the perfect double barrel board because we're definitely calling two streets... why raise the flop and make it one?

if you're going to say something, at least explain WHY
WHAT DOES A RAISE ACCOMPLISH

[Robb]

I'm waiting for someone to explain why 3betting w/o reads is correct here.

Wat?

We've got 50 hands of 31/27 stats. AF ~ 5.

This is exactly what we're looking for to 3b preflop (though we'd like a few more HH's to confirm, obv).

[Robb]

I don't fucking write a long-ass explanation so you can say "we'll just have to disagree"

i guess we'll just have to disagree on that

[Fnord]

how fast did he bet on the river?

He pretty much used his entire time bank.

This is the nuts.

Flatting pre-flop is fine. He's going to bluff a lot of the boards you hit and you have position on him. I only like a 3-bet if he's a total maniac and his stats aren't far from mine and a 3-bet here is pretty marginal against me (I'll probably just fold and adjust or 4-bet.)

I'm waiting for someone to explain why 3betting w/o reads is correct here.

Wat?

We've got 50 hands of 31/27 stats. AF ~ 5.

This is exactly what we're looking for to 3b preflop (though we'd like a few more HH's to confirm, obv).

his UTG range is 10%

[Fnord]

his UTG range is 10%

Poker stove top 10%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.527% 51.70% 04.83% 1179139200 110111754.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 43.473% 38.65% 04.83% 881426220 110111754.00 { AJo }

Here is my high gear top 15% of hands
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.930% 49.33% 01.60% 1844767776 59862954.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 49.070% 47.47% 01.60% 1775178252 59862954.00 { AJo }


My tighter UTG range (about 12%)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.295% 50.12% 02.18% 1318130796 57282924.00 { 77+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.705% 45.53% 02.18% 1197402300 57282924.00 { AJo }

Clear value

[Illfavor]

I'm waiting for someone to explain why 3betting w/o reads is correct here.

Wat?

We've got 50 hands of 31/27 stats. AF ~ 5.

This is exactly what we're looking for to 3b preflop (though we'd like a few more HH's to confirm, obv).

Pls. give a range where we aren't 3bet bluffing here, unless that's what you're advocating.

[Robb]

I'm waiting for someone to explain why 3betting w/o reads is correct here.

Wat?

We've got 50 hands of 31/27 stats. AF ~ 5.

This is exactly what we're looking for to 3b preflop (though we'd like a few more HH's to confirm, obv).

Pls. give a range where we aren't 3bet bluffing here, unless that's what you're advocating.

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what you're asking, but I'll try my best. And remember, Daven suggested the 3bet - I was arguing his point when IOPQ jumped on me.

Our "light" 3betting range isn't all bluffs. Axs has blockers, and sc's "flop good" on boards that miss his 3bet flatting range. Most people who 3bet light also barrel pretty liberally when ip.

So...I would think as soon as villain's PFR from a specific position approaches 20%, then the BTN 3bet w/ AJo is pure value. Around 15 - 16, I probably flat call with it, for the reasons fnord explained with stove/ranges above. But AJ is one of those hands that's very situational, and when facing an UTG preflop raise, we can correctly fold it (vs nits), call with it (vs. TAGG's) and 3bet it (vs. laggy players). AJ is also weird 'cuz it fits into everyone's ranges differently, depending on their style. So different folks will bet/call for value with AJ in different spots.

Then the argument becomes what his UTG PFR is, and I think it's wider than IOPQ does. I rarely find villains positionally aware enough to have 30/25 stats that manage to only raise 10% of their UTG hands preflop.

[bigspenda73]

def. don't 3bet PF

fold the turn river is an obv. fold

Robb, we're behind his opening range, and DEFINITELY behind his continuing range
Also, if we're 3bing this for value, then we should be playing this board for stacks... considering he like NEVER has ATo, what ARE we beating? ATs and A8s? Is he going to play for stacks with those hands?

[Micro2Macro]

off track a bit but a good quote from 2+2er:

When you feel that you are behind of villain's range, and that you are going to face another bet on the next street you won't call a high percentage of the time, don't call this one.

[spoonitnow]

def. don't 3bet PF

fold the turn river is an obv. fold

This and it's not even close, I've been asked about this hand by like 8 different people Jesus Christ

[Illfavor]

def. don't 3bet PF

fold the turn river is an obv. fold

This and it's not even close, I've been asked about this hand by like 8 different people Jesus Christ

[surviva316]

Villain is somewhat LAGGY over a small sample (50 hands) playing about 31/27. He has an overall aggression factor of 5 and has gotten to showdown 17% of time when seen flop and won all of them.

why are we so poopin' sure that villain is a LAgg?! i am a 20/15 weak/tight player and i run 31/27 over 50 hands all the time, and his show down stats say that he is not at all loose post flop. hence, i don't like 3betting AJo, and calling the turn is silly.