AQs call or 3-bet?

[Nakamura]

This is probably super basic ... but should we just call here? AQs seems like a hand that is going to play well 2 or 3 handed.

Raiser seems a bit tight (6/6/3.0 over 49), the player in the BB is a bit of a nut job running at 55/3/1.5 over 40 hands or so.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($15.90)
MP1 ($1.55)
MP2 ($11.30)
CO ($10.15)
Button ($2.75)
Hero (SB) ($12.50)
BB ($6)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero ??

[kmind]

Merits to calling? Merits to 3betting? Merits to folding?

[Hoopy]

Since this guy is open raising 6% of his hands his range is roughly 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+. Against this range we are 43%.

3 betting won't be any good for value, as if he's a nit he'll dump most of his range that we are ahead of. Don't really know if we have much fold equity here, I'm still trying to learn about that.

Folding just seems too weak, calling and letting the fish in the BB come in seems best, if we flop big we'll likely get some value out of him.

call and stack the fish imo

[linaker]

Call. Looks like a bad spot for a re-raise.

[Luco]

Nakamura, what made you consider 3betting here?

[oskar]

Folding is worth a consideration.

These stats are pretty useless in absence of steal%. If he does steal then his MP2 opening range should be tighter than you'd expect - even if not, he might be folding ATo, AJo and some PP's here with a 6% range.

It's pretty useless to think about what % we are against his range in all-in preflop scenarios. What you need to know is how good your hand plays oop against his range... let's assume 6% for the sake of argument (this could be wrong).
I'd say his range is: 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo
If an A comes, you are dominated by AA(1) AK(8), 3x set for every flop card >8, you tie with AQ(6) and you dominate AJs(2), ATs(2) of his hands that will continue. He'll prolly just give up on his pp's(30)
So you don't get value out of your aces.

The only flop you really want to see is Q high, AQx, TJK, 2 hearts or some combination of those.
Then you need to know how aggressive he is post flop. Does he just check back if he misses, and can you steal the turn?
How often does he give up to donk bets?

I might still play the AQs, but there are better hands to play against his range - especially oop - being oop sucks 100 times more than you might realize right now. Just generally I don't want to tangle with these super nits too much when they decide to open a hand, unless I have a plan how I'm going to exploit them.



I kind of like the idea of 3-betting though, and it's an easy example... of course it's a bluff!
But how narrow does his 3-bet-calling / 4-betting range need to be to make it profitable?
U can start counting teh combinaishns now imo.

Folding is worth a consideration.

no, 6/6 over 49 is something I get when I'm running card dead

plus, he's raising to .3
we're calling .25 in a pot of .7 if the fish folds
we really need only 35% equity to make the call in a vacuum

even if we're OOP, we still have 43% against his range
if the fish enters the pot at least we'll have relative position since fish acts after the supposed nit cbets

[oskar]

The 43% is completely irrelevant since you're not all-in.
You're in a lot of trouble if he gives you action, and he's probably just giving up on most flops that hit you when he's behind.

I don't hate a call, but folding is not terrible and it's worth a consideration. - more so than 3-betting.

The 43% is completely irrelevant since you're not all-in.
You're in a lot of trouble if he gives you action, and he's probably just giving up on most flops that hit you when he's behind.

I don't hate a call, but folding is not terrible and it's worth a consideration. - more so than 3-betting.

but our hand is super-playable because it's suited
it's a clear call in my mind
if you fold AQs you're basically playing 3b or fold with everything but pps

[Fnord]

CALL

[Azazel]

If we are on the button (not SB) should we still flat and try and get three way with the fish? Or is 3beting better here?

If we are on the button (not SB) should we still flat and try and get three way with the fish? Or is 3beting better here?

I still like calling

[Robb]

Folding is worth a consideration.

no, 6/6 over 49 is something I get when I'm running card dead

plus, he's raising to .3
we're calling .25 in a pot of .7 if the fish folds
we really need only 35% equity to make the call in a vacuum

even if we're OOP, we still have 43% against his range
if the fish enters the pot at least we'll have relative position since fish acts after the supposed nit cbets

The "equity needed" percentages (in bold above) are pretty worthless since we're oop and likely to be offering reverse implied odds about 40% of the time. We need more than just "price in" pot odds to make our decision here.

I do agree w/ IOPQ in that I'd be surprised if he's still PFR = 6% in another 250 hands.

Remember if you call and do hit your hand that most micro players cannot handle the ol' donk bet lead and start spewing when you use it on them. It's like the most straightforward way to play, but it crosses them up bigtime. Nice to use as a bluff w/ an underpair sometimes, too.