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 Originally Posted by ArcadianRock
Well that's just it. If this guy is dedicated to his hand and probably isn't folding it how are you supposed to play him? True he might have AA if that's the only hand he'll play but the question is if he's ready to get it in PreF do you want to have to fold KK if that A comes up PostF. Is he the type that C-bets?
I call and see a flop. We have position so we are at a bit of an advantage here when it comes to finding out where we're at.
Because this hand didn't go into postlflop action, I can't really give any input on what line to take because there are a shit load of different flop combinations, each leading to a different course of action.
As for 'do I want to fold my KK if the ace comes on the flop'. Well this depends again how villain plays postlfop. If he's the type to just give up on the turn if he hasn't hit that ace, float him all day. The fact that we have position in this hand and we are deep is a huge reason to end pf action at 4bets. Let's see a flop.
If the flop comes all raggy it depends on how the game has been going, but either flatting or raising somewhere from flop to river sounds like you'll either find out where you're at or control the size of the pot. Rememeber we can always fold KK postlfop. There's nothing saying we have to go with it till the river.
I doubt villain isn't c-betting near 100% here. In fact, if he checks, I think we need to worry more than him leading since we may very well be looking at a trap c/r. Again, too many factors to consider since we don't know what flop is.
When I' m up against a very tight raiser I probably would flat call QQ hoping for the board to hit low but at $2NL very tight includes JJ+ AKo+ AKs+ and just looking at the equity KK is a clear favorite here.
FYP. If someone is loose but never raises, and then all of a sudden comes in for a raise, they basically just transformed their range into that of a tight player who doens't do all the limping.
This sounds good. But let's think deeper. Think about the villains range and how each bet he makes gives information or clues as to what he's opening with.
For instance, this villain has a PFR of roughly 3%. Let's just say 4% because we probably don't quite have a great sample for that 2. whatever to be correct. You mentioned we're ahead of his range preflop, correct:
According to Pokerstove: Top 4% of hands = 99+,AQs+,AKo+.
Okay so right away by this player opening (assuming he is not deviating from this range) we know his exact range. We don't know what his exact hand is. Against this range we are a 70/30 fav'. So we 3-bet and THEN, villain 4-bets. Okay now we don't have the precise numbers here again, but let's say this guy will only 4-bet QQ+,AK. We're roughly a 57/42 favourite. However, if we shove our deepstack, Let's assume we only get called my KK+.
Uh-oh. We're 77/22 dog now and bound to lose our $6 deepstack more than we win. Yikes! I didn't run the precise math on this, but I doubt it's going to make up for all the times he folds AK/QQ. In fact, as played I don't think we're getting 5-bet with AK or QQ with someone who raises less than 3% of hands to begin with.
The possibility is always there, no doubt so perhaps shoving there or flat calling is the right choice but if you know he has a mega hand unless you hit your set you still have no idea what you're up against.
Like I said before if the board hits low and he shoves are you going to fold it because it's the same information you're being given Preflop.
Not necessarily about the same info part, his shoving range on the flop may be tighter than his re-raising range preflop (i.e. only AA or something). We already know his range is super strong. By shoving into him we only narrow his range even further than it already is. I believe there is more value in seeing a flop in the scenerio of facing a super tight raiser, especially a super-tight 4-bettor. He was making weak ass re-raises preflop so I highly doubt he's just open shoving a low flop. He'll probably underbet to the river, so we can just call him down. IF he does happen to shove, put him on a shoving range, run it through stove, and figure out if you have odds to call.
If some of this doesn't make sense I'll edit or someone can bash some of it or whatever. It's late here.
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