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I know shoving AK is more of a tournament play, but in this case I don't think it is so bad. The only player I'm really worried that might have KK+ here is melano26. Our big raise stands to be called by a lot of hands we're crushing (Ax, Kx) and a lot of hands that we really need to see all 5 cards against (QQ-22). We are likely to be at least a flip against a single caller, if not better, and if we are called by more than that we are almost certainly doing better than 33%. With the dead money that's in there, and the fact that we have to play OOP if called, I don't think a shove is really bad. Otherwise, we can end up check/folding or bet/folding (or betting flop, check/folding the turn) vs hands that we are beating.
By the way:
Code:
Hand 0: 45.700% 34.21% 11.49% 21085689 7085229.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 54.300% 42.81% 11.49% 26386797 7085229.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Even against the tight range you laid out, we are 46%. The dead money alone makes this is a profitable play, not to mention the fold equity we have. If we assume the type of calling range that I see more often at these stakes:
Code:
Hand 0: 56.130% 49.86% 06.27% 64027068 8057085.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 43.870% 37.60% 06.27% 48281562 8057085.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
We are a favorite. And I think we are getting called even wider than this with 4 people already in the pot and the BB yet to act. Our shove certainly looks like a donk bluff, and I expect to see a lot of other Kx hands besides KQs, as well as a fair share of Ax hands.
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