10NL | AKs am I way behind?

Villian is a 14|5. I decided to complete the small blind. On the flop I thought with two overs, straight draw, straight flush draw, that it might be a good flop to shove. Was this naive of me since he would only make that bet with a J in his hand so I am way behind or is it a decent shove vs his range? Thinking about it now I'm guessing he always has a jack.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG nirobox1 ($6.40)
UTG+1 Magesto ($22.40)
MP1 melano26 ($12.85)
MP2 chaoticmike ($5.70)
MP3 sts1214 ($23.50)
CO miketka ($7.45)
BTN waterwolves ($13.80)
SB Hero ($10.00)
BB manabird ($10.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, melano26 raises to $0.20, 1 fold, sts1214 calls $0.20, miketka calls $0.20, waterwolves calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.10, 5 players)
Hero bets $0.80, 3 folds, waterwolves raises to $3, $2.20 to Hero ($9.00)?

14/5 over how many hands? Enough to justify not raising with AKs with $0.95 already in the pot? These are the spots that AK is made for... hell, I wouldn't even mess around with a raise here, I'd just shove it in preflop. (Actually, even if MP1's range is exactly top 5%, you are 49/51, and the money in the pot plus the fold equity makes a shove profitable anyways, especially when you consider that one of the donk callers might show up with Ax or Kx or that you might get called by 2 players with QQ-22, where you are a 40% favorite 3-way.)

Postflop sucks, but I think you have to fold without a read. You could be drawing to 1 out (JJ, JT, TT), and having 2 overs here is pretty meaningless. But let's do the math anyways.

Code:

Board: Jd Jc Td
Hand 0: 	25.974%  	25.81% 	00.17% 	          9197 	       60.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	74.026%  	73.86% 	00.17% 	         26323 	       60.00   { JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

Shoving over his raise is pretty horrible, he's never folding and our equity sucks. Assuming he has at least trips and that all your outs are clean, you have 12 outs, or a 26% chance of hitting one of them on the turn. Based on pot odds, you need 45% here to call, so it looks like a fold on the surface.

What about implied odds? Let's assume we shove any diamond or Q turn and get called 100% of the time. The problem is that on such a turn, we are still not a huge favorite to win the hand (except Qd of course):

non-diamond Q:

Code:

Board: Jd Jc Td Qs
Hand 0: 	42.647%  	41.44% 	01.20% 	           620 	       18.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	57.353%  	56.15% 	01.20% 	           840 	       18.00   { JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

7d-9d:

Code:

Board: Jd Jc Td 7d
Hand 0: 	53.409%  	53.41% 	00.00% 	           846 	        0.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	46.591%  	46.59% 	00.00% 	           738 	        0.00   { JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

2d-6d:

Code:

Board: Jd Jc Td 2d
Hand 0: 	57.576%  	57.58% 	00.00% 	           912 	        0.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	42.424%  	42.42% 	00.00% 	           672 	        0.00   { JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

So let's put that all together. We win with each of the following hands (we are estimating that villain has 1 J):

Qd: 1/46 * 100% = .022
other Q: 3/46 * 42.6% = .028
7d-9d: 3/46 * 53.4% = .035
2d-6d: 5/46 * 57.6% = .063
Total = 14.8%

So if we can assume that villain is calling a shove on any turn, we stand to win $20.70 14.8% of the time. Since it is only costing us $2.20 (10.6% of $20.70) to call on the flop we can make the call on the flop profitably and then shove the turn if we hit our straight or flush. If we hit our A or K, we need to have the discipline to check/fold anyways (actually, we could check/call a stupid small bet like 1/3 pot - 1/2 pot because we have 23% equity in that case).

That is all assuming that villain won't be able to get away from his hand on a scary turn. Could villain fold trips on a 9d or Qd turn? Is villain ever bluffing on the flop? If villain is folding even 10% of the time when we make our hand on the turn, then we're better off just folding on the flop.

Regardless, yes, we are way behind and we absolutely cannot shove this flop unless we can put a lot of Tx and other pair hands in his range. In fact, in order for us to be a coinflip on the flop, villain has to be raising here something like:

Code:

Board: Jd Jc Td
Hand 0: 	50.048%  	49.72% 	00.33% 	         60543 	      401.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	49.952%  	49.62% 	00.33% 	         60425 	      401.00   { 22+, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs+, J7s+, T7s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

I just cannot see that being the case.

Thank you kindly DoanDiggy for the detailed response. This is a clear case of spew and I wish I could play the hand over or at least of called then folded the turn. Just after playing the hand I wondered if I should of shoved pre-flop...you have given me new confidence to do this in the future and I will be keeping my eye out for such situations.

not raising preflop makes this a check. oop with no real hand, 5 way and with a hand that could be drawing dead stuffed already.

also dont shove preflop. get bet pot script and middle click then click raise. Without having bet pot i think i raise to $1.80 and watch them all fold and take the pot down. I'm not sure if betting slightly less is better or worse tho.

I think you probably need to think of the range of hands you should be raising hard here to either take it down or get HU and work on a strategy for the range. Maybe TT+, AK, AQs. Calling or shoving Aces here is terrible, tho shoving is better.

Also remember not one player has shown real strength yet and a strong preflop bet will win it a fair amount of times.

I know shoving AK is more of a tournament play, but in this case I don't think it is so bad. The only player I'm really worried that might have KK+ here is melano26. Our big raise stands to be called by a lot of hands we're crushing (Ax, Kx) and a lot of hands that we really need to see all 5 cards against (QQ-22). We are likely to be at least a flip against a single caller, if not better, and if we are called by more than that we are almost certainly doing better than 33%. With the dead money that's in there, and the fact that we have to play OOP if called, I don't think a shove is really bad. Otherwise, we can end up check/folding or bet/folding (or betting flop, check/folding the turn) vs hands that we are beating.

By the way:

Code:

Hand 0: 	45.700%  	34.21% 	11.49% 	      21085689 	  7085229.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	54.300%  	42.81% 	11.49% 	      26386797 	  7085229.00   { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

Even against the tight range you laid out, we are 46%. The dead money alone makes this is a profitable play, not to mention the fold equity we have. If we assume the type of calling range that I see more often at these stakes:

Code:

Hand 0: 	56.130%  	49.86% 	06.27% 	      64027068 	  8057085.00   { AdKd }
Hand 1: 	43.870%  	37.60% 	06.27% 	      48281562 	  8057085.00   { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }

We are a favorite. And I think we are getting called even wider than this with 4 people already in the pot and the BB yet to act. Our shove certainly looks like a donk bluff, and I expect to see a lot of other Kx hands besides KQs, as well as a fair share of Ax hands.