I just read this thread from start to finish, and of course I got in after results - still the results mostly confirmed my thoughts.

The key stat to me is AF 16. This is a guy who takes down pots with aggression - whether he has something or not.

I don't think the villain would take this line with any particular hand 100% of the time, but with various reasons for the discounts I will just assume the likeliness of each hand is equal (subject to combinatorics) and the range is this: 88+, AJ+