facing flop shove vs loose passive/aggressive nl10

villain runs about 46/6/16 small sample of 50 hands


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.55)
MP1 ($2.40)
MP2 ($12.70)
CO ($10)
Button ($12.20)
Hero (SB) ($12)
BB ($22)
UTG ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) J, 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $7.35 (All-In), Hero??

what would u do?

im not sure i like 3betting him when his pfr is only 6% and he's UTG, and we're going to be OOP if we're called.

as played I think he has you crushed here so fold imho.

Pretty hard to get away from after the flat call PF he will rarely have AA or KK here, unless player notes say otherwise. There are LAGG who are aggressive with draws and bluffs, but slowplay made hands. I think I call here pretty much every time. - as always it would be good to have reads/player notes.

But I think It's just too cheap to make a heroic laydown.

ughhh, at the table I would try to fire up pokerstove and see what's going down. The end results is probably call but I would really want to fold.

I have a real problem with this hands, because I'm thinking: who's retarded enough to donkey shove Jx here... I mean you can't possibly be that stupid. We 3-bet and bet out on the flop... he can get all his money in by just calling instead of trying to scare away an overpair.
But people do it, so... I think it's close too. I wouldn't be surprised to see 99 or J2, all from the same player, and it really messes with my head. I don't understand these plays.

Originally Posted by oskar

I have a real problem with this hands, because I'm thinking: who's retarded enough to donkey shove Jx here... I mean you can't possibly be that stupid.

Beyond this hand, I think this logic is yuck.

logic?

You think there's a solid reason to play Jx that way?

i dont think you can discount AA or KK here either - it seems that more and more 10nl players are flatting these both to 3bets now than they used to, and are then looking to get it all in on any flop.

Originally Posted by sil693

i dont think you can discount AA or KK here either - it seems that more and more 10nl players are flatting these both to 3bets now than they used to, and are then looking to get it all in on any flop.

jepp, i´ve been observing this A LOT on NL25 and I guess theres some spill over to nl10.
well, I called. By the way, is it ok to post results after the discussion`s finished?

Originally Posted by hagscel

By the way, is it ok to post results after the discussion`s finished?

yes

Originally Posted by oskar

logic?

You think there's a solid reason to play Jx that way?

Yes, because you think there isn't.

Also, call, you're not beat here as often as you think imo

I'd fold.

Preflop betting pattern looks like a high pocket pair or maybe overplayed AK. Betting pattern post flop looks like you're beat.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

Also, call, you're not beat here as often as you think imo

What range are you putting villain on?

Lots of pocket pairs, flush draws, and the stuff that beats us. I agree that we're beat most of the time, but the price is too good.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

Originally Posted by oskar

logic?

You think there's a solid reason to play Jx that way?

Yes, because you think there isn't.

Wrong.
How often will the Hero bet the turn here and commit himself? Why would he risk raising out mediocre hands when he can get it in on later streets. By just calling he can get value out of weaker hands, and even just c-bets if he gets double-barrelled.
Shoving is horrible with a J (or any hand for that matter). Even AK I would flat call, because I think there's a good chance I get a free river, and I still get the right pot odds if he moves me in. Even against people I play regularly who know I wouldn't do this, I think it would be a horrible play.

Originally Posted by oskar

How often will the Hero bet the turn here and commit himself? Why would he risk raising out mediocre hands when he can get it in on later streets. By just calling he can get value out of weaker hands, and even just c-bets if he gets double-barrelled.
Shoving is horrible with a J (or any hand for that matter). Even AK I would flat call, because I think there's a good chance I get a free river, and I still get the right pot odds if he moves me in.

do you really think this goes through the mind of a 46/6/16 10NL player??

i dont think you can discount Jx because it "doesn't make sense" to you.

I didn't discount it. I said it's hard to put the villain on any hand because the play doesn't make sense to me with any 2 cards he could possibly have. That's what makes it tough for me. I don't really know how often he has what here.

Originally Posted by hagscel

villain runs about 46/6/16 small sample of 50 hands


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.55)
MP1 ($2.40)
MP2 ($12.70)
CO ($10)
Button ($12.20)
Hero (SB) ($12)
BB ($22)
UTG ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) J, 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $7.35 (All-In), Hero??

what would u do?

I haven't read the other responses, and take mine with a grain of salt... you've been to my blog so you know what I'm like...

I have a hard time here... he is 6% on PFR... and in EP he may be even tighter... He may be on JJ+, AK or possibly AQ, but I'm strongly leaning away from AQ on him... preflop you are fine, he indicated strength, you indicated you were both blind defending and had a good hand, he flat called... with that action I think he is narrowed down to a pretty darn tight range... JJ+, AK (maybe, maybe suited AK a little more likely... )... without knowing the player, I gotta stick to that range pre-flop...

The flop isn't overly scary... you opened for 2/3 pot and he shoves... that makes me narrow him on one aspect but widen on another... and makes me nervous... if you don't have enough history to go on with him (haven't seen this action before from villian) I think you have to fold here. If he has JJ you're hopelessly dead, you're not drawing to flush, he may be sitting on AA or KK which has you beat also, also if he hit the spades holding AKspades then you're in a race to avoid his flush...

Let me try to do the odds thing to see what your chances are there... in my head... QQ vs. AKspades with two spades on the board... he has 9 outs for the flush to beat you, you have two outs... the pot is 14 something and you have to put in over 7 to call... I'm out. I don't like it... 2:1 to call, I think you're dead. Fold.

Originally Posted by oskar

Pretty hard to get away from after the flat call PF he will rarely have AA or KK here, unless player notes say otherwise. There are LAGG who are aggressive with draws and bluffs, but slowplay made hands. I think I call here pretty much every time. - as always it would be good to have reads/player notes.

But I think It's just too cheap to make a heroic laydown.

It's hard to say I've seen a definative trend but I think a lot of times on PokerStars against the 10NL people I've been playing, I see AA/KK in this situation more often than not, they bet aggressive, 6% PFR, it is well within their range, when re-raised they often flat call IMO, so I'm not able to say they aren't there...

I'm going to throw out one more reply to this, I know I've kind of hijacked the thread, but here is my dilemma.

A 10NL player with 50 hand history and no trends that jump out at you is limping a pretty wide range but raising a very narrow one... from UTG if they have any brains that range is VERY narrow... while you can't count on them having brains you have to make the play that makes the most sense... something I've struggled with.

I don't have pokerstove at work to run it through, but doing it in my head, if their range is only 6% I have to cut them down to 3% PFR from UTG, if they have any brains, and that is awfully tight... I can't even honestly give them credit for AK here, though I'm probably over analyzing the player at this point with too little info...

ok... someone slam me for why I'm wrong here... maybe I'm just too conservative.

this is AJ a lot

thx @all forthe brisk discussion

Yes, because you think there isn't.

Also, call, you're not beat here as often as you think imo

jepp, damm true. at 10 nl there are a lot of villains that will raise cbets with any pp if the flop is short of overcards.

this is AJ a lot

is it as often, as it is AQ/AK/KQs/ATs/ 99+ without AA/KK/QQ, which I had discounted for him not shoving all in preflop?

A 10NL player with 50 hand history and no trends that jump out at you is limping a pretty wide range but raising a very narrow one

trend is 46 vpip; due to the small sample the least unreliable stat, imo.

ughhh, at the table I would try to fire up pokerstove and see what's going down. The end results is probably call but I would really want to fold.

on te flop:
vs 99+,AT+QJ+,KT+ we are a better coinflip (58%:62%) roughly.
Discounting QQ+ due to prior assumption we are 65%:35%, add all Jx for fun.......
assuming the upper 50% we are roughly a 75:25 favourite,

imo call.

hat more and more 10nl players are flatting these both to 3bets now than they used to

hrmmm... scary... how many of those are there , seriously?

hags

am i anywhere close to it?

don't make your ranges this way
first, make a value/semibluff range of say 99+,33,AsKs,AsQs,AsTs,KsQs,QsTs,J8s+,J9o+
you're 33%

he's bluffing with no draw maybe 5%? so add on 4% to your equity
since you don't have any reads

Originally Posted by iopq

don't make your ranges this way
first, make a value/semibluff range of say 99+,33,AsKs,AsQs,AsTs,KsQs,QsTs,J8s+,J9o+
you're 33%

he's bluffing with no draw maybe 5%? so add on 4% to your equity
since you don't have any reads

thx, I get your drift and will think about this.

results?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.55)
MP1 ($2.40)
MP2 ($12.70)
CO ($10)
Button ($12.20)
Hero (SB) ($12)
BB ($22)
UTG ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) J, 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $7.35 (All-In), Hero calls $4.35

Turn: ($19.20) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($19.20) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $19.20 | Rake: $0.95

Results:
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and Jacks).
UTG had 10, 10 (full house, tens over Jacks).
Outcome: UTG won $18.25

nh, keep getting the money in good

nh

wow wish we had folded since he eventually makes a full house!

I just read this thread from start to finish, and of course I got in after results - still the results mostly confirmed my thoughts.

The key stat to me is AF 16. This is a guy who takes down pots with aggression - whether he has something or not.

I don't think the villain would take this line with any particular hand 100% of the time, but with various reasons for the discounts I will just assume the likeliness of each hand is equal (subject to combinatorics) and the range is this: 88+, AJ+