set facing 4-bet all-in, deep + limped pot (5NL)

[miracleriver]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($11.88)
Hero ($15.44)
CO ($5.61)
Button ($8.90)
SB ($8.26)
BB ($9.72)
UTG ($10.36)
UTG+1 ($4.78)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.17) 8, 3, A (3 players)
BB bets $0.15, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.5, BB calls $0.35.

Turn: ($1.17) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.5, Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $9.17, Hero ???

No read on villain. On the flop, I put him on weak/medium A (dry board + action on flop + overall willingness to go too far with weak A at this stake). So his turn bet/4-bet all-in surprised + confused me. I am getting great odds, like 2.2 : 1. As played, call?

Also, is it a mistake to try to play sets for stacks in ~200bb deep limped pots?

[Stacks]

Uhhh... Easy call?? The only hands you are behind is AA (unlikely given he limped) or 45 (which you still have 10 outs against). At 5nl there is a good chance he is overplaying an Ace or hit 2 pair. Fist pump call here from me.

And I'm pretty sure sets are the type of hands you want to play 200+bb deep.

[poker_pup]

With the big blind in a limped pot there's always the chance that he's playing 45. But there's also the chance that he's trying to scare you out of the pot.

Absent any other reads, I call.

[Robb]

As played, call?

Snap call.

Also, is it a mistake to try to play sets for stacks in ~200bb deep limped pots?

Nope. The mistake at 200bb deep is to overplay hands AGAINST likely sets, especially flush draws where we don't have the pot odds for it. Also, at 100bb deep, we're pretty happy to get it all in with something like AK that flops TPTK or 2 pair. Playing these for stacks at 200bb deep is more questionable and needs a decent read on opponent(s).

Here's typical scenario: Hero has a set of 8's, Villain has AKs with TPTK and flush draw, which villain counts as 14 outs (9 flush cards, 2 K's, 3 A's). PokerStove says...

Board: Kh 8c Qc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.010% 31.01% 00.00% 307 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 68.990% 68.99% 00.00% 683 0.00 { 8d8h }


Hero should be willing to gamble any amount with nearly 70% equity. Even if the flush hits, a paired board (10 outs on river for Hero) skewers villain. You can run this scenario against 2 pair, and the outcome is even better for Hero (nearly 80% equity). That's why I'm almost always willing to go broke with a set, at any amount of stack depth. Exceptions are a terrible board, a solid read on a TAGG villain, and betting that makes me think I'm likely to be drawing thin.

By the way, set over set happens about 1 in 100 times you get dealt a set. So, yes, at some stack depth with bottom set, I'd get worried I was drawing dead. But not very often at 200bb.

Of course, when we're the one with the non-set hand, and a set seems to be a big part of villain's range, then we're the one in trouble. It requires great reads, the deeper you are, to figure out what's optimal. We can't fold a 14-out draw too often, but we need to be careful when villain's ready to play for 200+ BB.

[Outlaw]

I'm guessing he has 22 or A2.. doubt he doesn't slowplay AA on that flop at that level. 45 is possible, you are beating a lot more hands than are beating you... I never fold here.. shove shove shove. Even if he happens to to have 45,you have a redraw to a boat.

Tj

[Fnord]

Fistpump time

[Outlaw]

By the way, set over set happens about 1 in 100 times you get dealt a set. So, yes, at some stack depth with bottom set, I'd get worried I was drawing dead. But not very often at 200bb.

Holy crapola, I lost to set over set 4 times in 2 hours the other day. If its 7.5/1 to hit a set and 100/1 to get beat by a better set, what are the odds of me losing that many times?

[Fnord]

By the way, set over set happens about 1 in 100 times you get dealt a set.

Ummm..... got the math on that one?

[Robb]

By the way, set over set happens about 1 in 100 times you get dealt a set.

Ummm..... got the math on that one?

Edit

I read that somewhere, one of Phil Gordon's books, I think. Of course, it depends and can't be calculated precisely - we'd need some database cruncher to do the emperics. I did some work which I'll summarize.

1. TAGG villains are more likely to "overset" us since pp's are a greater part of their opening range.
2. Lower pp's have a greater chance of being overset - a set of A's has 0% chance of being overset.
3. Heads up is easiest to analyze.

So I developed a "worst case scenario" estimate using a Hero hand of 22 (all flop cards are overcards) and TAGG villain. I did the detail analysis (see below) for 22, then for 66. Results.

For Hero's 22, overset occurs 1 in 24 times (about 4%)
For Hero's 66, overset occurs 1 in 37 times (about 2.7%)

Given this "worst case" analysis and lots of scratchwork, I would estimate that in HU situations, we'll face oversets less than 1 in 50 times with 66, decreasing dramatically, of course, the size of our pp increases. And increasing, of course, with the number of TAGG villains we're facing (more chances of pp's in roughly SAME small opening/flatting range).

These estimates are conservative for the following reasons:

1. Paired boards (Hero's boat) are ignored
2. A TAGG villain is used, and many, many villains are much looser than this - the looser the villain, the less likely it is he'll have paired cards to start with.
3. We assume villain open raises all pp's. If he limps small pp's, then unpaired cards are a larger percentage of his range, and oversets less likely (conditional probability, i.e. he didn't limp, therefore he couldn't have small pp - readjust probabilities).

These estimates are liberal/off because of the following reasons:

1. Multiway pots are ignored, and obviously more villains make oversets more likely.
2. Villain's flat calling Hero's open raises is ignored - tougher to have stats on.

So I started with this "easy" calculation: chance of overset given:

1. Hero has 22, flops a set (but not quads, i.e. one 2 is "dead")
2. TAGG villain (who opens 11% of hands for a raise in MP, including 33+) open raises from MP
3. Hero is only caller from BB
4. Flop is something like K92 (two unpaired cards, plus Hero's set)

In this case, the pp's comprise 5.5% of the total number of starting hands possible, so villain has a 50-50 chance of holding a pp.

Of the 72 combinations that are pp's, 3 are KK and 3 are 99, for 6 total, so there is a 1 in 12 chance of villain having an overset when he started with a pp.

This means that 1 in 24 times the above layout happens, there is a set over set, or about 4% chance.

Whoa! That's bigger than the 1% I was quoting, right? Well, when you get dealt AA and hit the set, there is a 0% chance of an overset, so the odds obviously decrease markedly as the size of your pp increases. Changing the above analysis ONLY by increasing Hero's hand to 66, now the pp's 77+ are only 25% of Villain's range, and again 6 of the combinations will provide sets ( 1 in 12). But here's the difficulty. How often does the flop contain one (or more) cards LOWER than the 6? The answer is easier to get from a chart:

Ruling out any 6's from the deck (2 in Hero's hand, one on board, and no quads hitting the flop), and assuming we don't know what's in villain's hand, there are 1128 ways to pick the other 2 flop cards from the 48 remaining.

Both 7+ :496 ways (choose 2 from 32 cards)
Both 5 - : 120 ways (chose 2 from 16 cards)
1 hi 1 lo : 512 ways ( 1128 - 120 - 496 = 512)

In percentage terms, about 10% of the time, both flop cards are below Hero's set. The other 90% is almost evenly split between Both Hi and 1 Hi / 1 Lo.

For the Both Hi case, 6 of the 32 available combinations would make an overset. For the 1 Hi / 1 Lo case, 3 of the 32 would.

This means that (with a few more calculations) the chance of an overset would be about 2.7%.

Why I am I sure is this conservative?

Typical situation with Hero holding 22 in MP 6max NLHE: Hero raises 22 and is flatted by BTN villain (everyone else folds). Since many villains play loose passive preflop, suppose villain's flatting range includes 33% of hands. Here, using the same calculations as above, there is a 1 in 73 chance of overset, or only 1.7%.

Obviously, the estimate must lie between the bounds, so I would think that chances of oversets even when we restrict ourselves to small pp's like 22 - 55 is still less than 1 in 20, even in multiway pots. And it goes way down every unit increase in size of Hero's pp and the looser villains.

Fnord, I've done everything I know to do with this - I doubt I can tighten up these estimates even if I work on them for a week. Critique? Am I missing something? Let me know.

[Hawk]

At 5nl, if you make it a rule to never fold a set, you aren't going to make many mistakes.

[kmind]

I really really doubt someone at this level will not raise AA preflop in the bb or semibluff 45 on the flop.