3betting AK pf and post flop implications

[Robb]

An interesting thread started here: Playing AK The discussion turned to 3betting with AK preflop. I made the case for 3betting AK 95% or more of the time.

The discussion parallels some concepts I've figured out and had fun lately with in my "Hand Reading for Noobs" series of polls I've posted here. Basically, 3betting preflop is all about the times when you do it and the original raiser flat calls. Postflop, this situation is EXTREMELY easy to play, even for beginner's and noobies. You have position against an very narrow range of holdings.

I will walk through how simple AK is to play when you 3bet and then let you all fire back.

Preflop, EP open raises 3.5xBB, hero 3bets from MP 10xBB, and the following things can happen (assuming at least 60bb stacks):
1. Another villain(s) calls or rr's. This sucks, and I'm pretty much done putting in chips.
2. All fold. Wheeeee!! I don't have a made hand, and small pp's are folding out in a decent ratio with dominated hands that fold. I'm fine taking down a pot preflop, especially when it's blinds plus an open raise (usually 5bb+). If this keeps happening, I'll be 3betting lighter and lighter until it stops.
3. All fold back to OR, who calls. Wheeee!! He's on a anorexic range and has to act first. And I've got outs. His range? Pretty much AJ+, Axs and QQ-88. Excellent equity, even when I miss the flop. Hands I have dominated and coin flips. Against QQ on a J52 rainbow flop, I still have 27% equity. VERY unlikely that he has AA or KK. Very profitable.
4. All fold back to OR, who 4bets (maybe a shove). Oops. Pretty much gotta fold without a read. Bye bye 10bb, reload stack, pray for AK next hand too.

My wild guess about how often each scenario happens at 25nl and below on UB is...

1 & 4 combined occur about 25% of the time.
2 happens probably 40% of the time, or more.
3 happens maybe 30 - 35% of the time.

The bad cases (1 & 4) cost us about 10bb's, while #2 earns us about 5bb's, so they're basically a break-even proposition. Don't know if my guesses on frequencies are anywhere near accurate (your thoughts?). But #3 is seriously profitable, if you just think about his narrow range and how he has to play on the flop. So we're 3betting with AK to get called by OR, and making a huge +EV on these hands while breaking even elsewhere.

I have more to say, but I would be interested on what FTR thinks before I write much more.

[sarbox68]

A couple of addt'l thoughts from a noobie come to mind (in no apparent order...) -

1. Obv the addt'l side benefit to all this is opening up your 3-betting range and avoiding the dreaded QQ+ (or god forbid KK+...) syndrome. And with many more combos of AK, it's going to make it harder for folks to just lock u on a made monster.
2. The risk is getting carried away with just 2 overs... 'cause if u don't pay attention and exercise pot control post-flop you can easily end up adding 8BBs in for a CB that gets called and a turn that doesn't help. Then you get into two-barrel, check/call, bluff decisions that are much more of a minefield if your post flop is weak (ed. I'm talking about myself here...)
3. 3-betting will usually kill the 15:1 set odds PF, so less to fear on an A73 or K52 flop.
4. You got 6 great draws to smoke some otherwise decent TT-QQ hands that a lot of times get flatted PF 'cause Vil knows they're not good enuff to 4-bet/shove but doesn't really want to fold them either...
5. You'll have better odds to iso the PFR vs. getting stuck with some crappy 4 way call in FR and then hitting TPTK on a draw heavy board...

So -- IMHO consistently 3-betting AK actually makes a tough hand quite a bit easier to play vs. just flatting. I still get iffy about inflating the pot PF with effectively nothing but a drawing hand... but hey, I'm nit-tastic!

[Robb]

2. The risk is getting carried away with just 2 overs... 'cause if u don't pay attention and exercise pot control post-flop you can easily end up adding 8BBs in for a CB that gets called and a turn that doesn't help. Then you get into two-barrel, check/call, bluff decisions that are much more of a minefield if your post flop is weak (ed. I'm talking about myself here...)
3. 3-betting will usually kill the 15:1 set odds PF, so less to fear on an A73 or K52 flop.

Yeah, AK is always gonna be trouble post if you catch air, 3betting or otherwise. But 3betting has a lot of advantages. One major advantage you mention in #3.