Hand Reading 4 Noobs, Part V

[Robb]

Villain is 16/14/1.8. This poll asks for Hero's action. In the thread, tell us what villain can have here, and why. Then explain what Hero should do. I understand the arguments for Hero folding preflop, but this gets us to an interesting read. So go with it.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($22.05)
CO ($10.28)
BTN ($48.49)
SB ($11.33)
BB ($9.92)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB raises to $2.9, Hero calls $2.05

Flop: ($5.9, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

[daven]

pre-flop fold, you're UTG so this isn't blind defence - villain's range AA-KK-QQ-AK and not deep enough for you to see a flop...

first answer:
Flop, interesting. You're behind. Your pre-flop play reps an awful player - the type that wouldn't be able to check behind here, even though you should. But this only matters if villain is good = unlikely.

AF 1.8 with 16-14 means he's not a serial-c-better... he can't c-bet a set or tptk cos you'll auto-fold, unless you have a set and then it's going to showdown regardless. he would probably rep the set if he hadn't hit. You bet and get c-raised all-in most of the time. Dunno if villain has the balls to check-fold KK here? probably not.

Check behind, this hand becomes a little more interesting if a ten hits on the turn..

[Vrax]

You're behind preflop and way behind on flop. Only pot behind after you call PF. You can't go flop shopping here and you don't have postflop FE. Fold PF, fold on flop.

Preflop: AA-KK/AK, maybe QQ/JJ

Villain's postflop check doesnt narrow his range. He either slowplays AA/AK, or chose c/c line with JJ-KK - he isnt folding it with pot behind.

Check behind, this hand becomes an auto stack-off if a ten hits on the turn..

FYP

[parky]

Since villain is short stacked I don't see him folding with anything that he would have reraised with AK,KK,QQ, and maybe JJ. So I think we are behind and only hope is a ten on turn. So I would check and hope for a ten.

[Robb]

Since villain is short stacked I don't see him folding with anything that he would have reraised with AK,KK,QQ, and maybe JJ. So I think we are behind and only hope is a ten on turn. So I would check and hope for a ten.

You're assuming he thinks about that kind of stuff. I'll add a read. He played what appeared to be weak-tight poker, folded in a couple of big action pots when he had the odds (it seemed) to call. I never saw what he had 'cuz he didn't show down, so I don't really know what it means. But this villain can lay down a hand.

[Lucix]

If you are going to call preflop isn't it a good idea to bet a scare card on the flop? You don't have odds to call and set mine. Either give up preflop or bet the ace on the flop. He could easily have something like JJ. If you bet flop it looks like you have AK, and I think you take it down enough there to make it profitable.

Bet 2/3 pot on flop and then give up on it is my action as played.

Could be wrong though.

[Fnord]

All-in if he's straight forward and weak.
Check behind if he's a trixy hobbitzes

[Erpel]

My first impulse was check behind for pot control and because we're almost certainly behind, but as people have pointed out before me there is a different play worth considering.

With his stats his range is high pocket pairs with maybe AKish and maybe even AQs though that seems far fetched. He'll have known that he'd be out of position for the hand after the flop, which I take to mean that he's even more likely to have high pocket pairs. The flop is semi-dry so he won't have needed to worry too much about pricing out drawing hands (especially with the three-bet - T8 isn't the most likely holding for Hero) and he could have been intending to check-raise a solid holding.

However considering the read of weak player I would rule out AK and AQs (if that was ever an option) and discount AA. Similarly this makes him likely to worry about AK/AQs type hands held by hero and though we are most likely way behind a JJ-KK pocket pair we probably have a profitable bluffing opportunity - the all-in bet.

Villain has $6 behind and the pot is $5.9, so we're looking to bet $6 to win $11.9 at showdown if he calls or $5.9 upfront if he folds. To win at showdown we have between 10% and 11% equity according to PokerStove depending on if we include JJ and AKo. If villain folds more than 50% of the time the bluff is pure +EV. Since we only have a 10% chance of winning the showdown he'll need to fold about 41% of the time for the all-in bet to be profitable.

He'd still almost have to fold too often for this to be too profitable. He doesn't have to go bluff catching, overlooking that we might hold AK or be holding AA too many times before this is a -EV move. But I still like it.

[tom]

if he doesn't rep the ace you have to, especially with a weak tight read. Bet ~3/4 pot on the flop annd drop the hand if you get a call.

[flomo]

are you checking to me?

are you really checking to me?

i can't beleive you are checking to me.

[Robb]

All-in if he's straight forward and weak.

Bold +1

Check behind if he's a trixy hobbitzes

LoL +2

Once, 'cuz hobbit humor rocks, twice 'cuz this guy is NOT tricky. You can't even SEE tricky from where this guy is.

[Robb]

Read preflop has to be something like AQ+, AJs+, KQs, TT+. Not likely to be wider. Easily could be narrower.

Postflop, imo, Ax is no longer very likely. Most villains would value bet here. AA is possible, but only half of them are still possible.

The pp's like JJ, QQ, KK are very likely here, w/ the other TT and a badly played Ax just barely possible. The only hand that's likely here is AA where most villains would slow play it, hoping for a bet. But if even QQ+ are his 3bet preflop range, repping the Ace is likely to scare him.

Answer: rasie, to make better hands fold. We're beat here, but it's by someone who is scared of that ace (most of the time).

Results for the results oriented: I fired all in (since a PSB was 80% of his stack), and villain folded.